psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 49 minutes ago, mappy said: I need a northern tier update from @HighStakes or @losetoa6 or @psuhoffman Sorry work schedule is wicked today. I'll give a "Northern tier" update when I get a chance to take in the whole 12z guidance but I'm feeling good things right now from what I've seen. Some are over thinking it. Sub 990 low just east of OC with a good h5 pass works 90% of the time. 23 minutes ago, Amped said: Silly precip bomb over Philly robs us. Not sure that verifies. You know darn well there is no chance that verifies. Gfs isn't going to nail those little convection bombs and likely they are convective feedback and not real and the ccb is more uniform. Gfs SUCKS as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The CMC is ridiculous. 1.3" of QPF by 18Z tomorrow for OKV. Kuchera at 10.9" of snow there through h30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Still a north trend on all models 24hrs out. Gotta wonder how much longer it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Lwx still not that inpressed. Low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tuesday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday night. There is a slight winter storm threat Tuesday through early Wednesday. If the threat materializes, travel disruptions may result. Really surprised, this is starting early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Oh man if it was only mid February... yeah, certainly Wednesday has upside potential for somebody. Banding always creates winners and losers. And elevation will play a role as well of course.No doubt. That’s why I’d be feeling good if I lived in the northern tier with areas in NW MoCo, Northern Frederick also in the running for WSW criteria stuff. This is a setup where people like das and PSU can do pretty well due to elevation and location.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Still a north trend on all models 24hrs out. Gotta wonder how much longer it lasts. Until the end. The storm is going north, none for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 cmc may have trended a little slower from the last run which might help with the phasing (low is closer to the coast this run). otherwise looks similar to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 No precip panels yet but I think UKMET is going to look good. It basically stalls and deepens for like 12 hours off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, WVclimo said: The CMC is ridiculous. 1.3" of QPF by 18Z tomorrow for OKV. Kuchera at 10.9" of snow there through h30. Just under 2 inches total precip ALL SNOW in Winchester. Even with crappy rates 8 inches seems legit to me. Drool worthy panel right here. And the panel after is just as nice. 5 or 6 hours of heavy snow during the daytime would just be awesome: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 FWIW HRRR at 3am tonight. (I think I'm reading that right) Precip already knocking on the door. Might be a nice thump before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: No precip panels yet but I think UKMET is going to look good. It basically stalls and deepens for like 12 hours off the Delmarva. Usually a good precursor the Euro this close to game time. A stalled and deepening low off the Delmarva is basically all I can ask for out of a coastal snow storm. Im also excited for the optics of this storm. We are fighting climo, but it will be badass to see moderate to heavy snow flying for an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Interesting LWX lowered amounts for I-95, but also upped the 1/10 chance category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Updated.... https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Interesting LWX lowered amounts for I-95, but also upped the 1/10 chance category. They lowered amounts for everyone east of I-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Wonder what they are even looking at for that map. 2-3” even for HGR. Ya doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Jesus take the wheel we’re within time for hhhhrrrrrrrrllucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, yoda said: They lowered amounts for everyone east of I-81 The good news for winter weather lovers is that superstitiously, when LWX does this back and forth with accumulations...we usually get a good storm I'm actually fairly stoked for a nice sleet storm for a time tomorrow. It's a cool precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Wonder what they are even looking at for that map. 2-3” even for HGR. Ya doubt it. Wave 2 still uncertain..why go all in now. Easy to ratchet up. These maps trigger a lot of planning for the counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Updated.... https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Their maps seem inconsistent. Percent chance of >=4” for Baltimore is 56% and yet expected total is 1-2”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Awfully conservative from LWX. Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Let's take the LWX talk to banter please. This stuff derails every disco thread every.single.storm. Posting their forecast is fine. Debating it for 3 pages isn't. At least to me it isn't anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 HDERPS looks like everything else. Big hit NW of 95 already but the good stuff is rolling at the end of the run. VERY narrow spread with 12z today. Euro will probably look better than 0z for wave 2 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: HDERPS looks like everything else. Big hit NW of 95 already but the good stuff is rolling at the end of the run. VERY narrow spread with 12z today. Euro will probably look better than 0z for wave 2 as well. Bob are you buying the possible stall scenario ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 HDERPS is a lot of sleet for the closer burbs before the flip. Like .25+ of heavy sleet. I'm personally like a good sleet base before a flip. Everything is coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: HDERPS is a lot of sleet for the closer burbs before the flip. Like .25+ of heavy sleet. I'm personally like a good sleet base before a flip. Everything is coming together. And again...that base may aid accumulations, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: HDERPS looks like everything else. Big hit NW of 95 already but the good stuff is rolling at the end of the run. VERY narrow spread with 12z today. Euro will probably look better than 0z for wave 2 as well. Lot more consistency across the models, seemingly, with this storm (at this stage). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: Bob are you buying the possible stall scenario ? Yes, because everything is going neg tilt and closing off H5 to our SW. Weak steering flow as well. GFS was the most progressive of the bunch and it was really close to the same closed low/stall off the coast solution. If 0z tonight has full consensus of the closed ull and stall then I think it's a lock. OTOH- with a stall and more ene trajectory, banding could miss in any direction for big totals. It's not the same as a low that climbs the coast. It's all happening overhead. That's why I'm not hugging any one solution when it comes to QPF distribution. Closed lows like this are inherently hard to predict. Zero comparison but March 13 showed how it can break the wrong way. I highly doubt we miss to SW VA like that though. This is a different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 UKMET is best for philly to NYC with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: UKMET is best for philly to NYC with the second wave. Yeah, I thought it’d be better here than the meteogram shows looking at the SLP maps. But it looks like about 13mm falls after 850s drop below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 hours ago, clskinsfan said: You will end up being very happy then I would guess. I mean all guidance says everyone from you west is going to get hit pretty hard. I am expecting some mix up front even out here. But it appears the column cools pretty rapidly over the Shenandoah Valley and east to the Blue Ridge. I dont know exactly where you are. But if you are up on the mountain by Mt. Weather I think you are going to get crushed. At 7 & 9. On a hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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