stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: 5-6" not bad not bad for late March. That's damn good for us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS notably weaker with the warm nose tomorrow vis-à-vis the NAM. I would lean to the 3k NAM for the thermal profile. We’ll see what the king says in two hours, but I think coating-2” of sleet tomorrow plus 3-6” of snow looks like a solid forecast ATT for most of NoVA and central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just the length of the event makes it special. It a 40 hour storm for most of us. Too bad its not February 19th instead of March 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Interestingly, Kuchera is an improvement over 10:1 for a lot of people. Is wave 2 supposed to be high ratio? Yeah I was surprised at how much it showed. I think I'll trust the snow depth maps over Kuchera, as much as I love seeing myself in purple, simply because of the ratios, duration, and the time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: That's damn good for us down here. so, I've been trying to tell @H2O all morning he had nothing to worry about, that wave 2 could be money for you guys, hopefully he will listen to me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now look at the eastern shore during the height. THIS is heavy snow. Look at the omegas in the dgz. Low viz heavies right there That supports the long standing rule of being just west of the r/s line is gets it the best. you need to be on the correct side of that to really cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, kgriffin56 said: Less for EZF? Plenty of maps have been posted ITT, so you can check for yourself, and be sure to consider all the caveats considering we're in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS notably weaker with the warm nose tomorrow vis-à-vis the NAM. I would lean to the 3k NAM for the thermal profile. We’ll see what the king says in two hours, but I think coating-2” of sleet tomorrow plus 3-6” of snow looks like a solid forecast ATT for most of NoVA and central MD.This is my forecast to a T for my buddy in your neck of the woods. I can see some upside too in the snow. Tomorrow is going to get quite loud during the day with all the sleet. Would be nice to catch a rumble of thunder. Soundings look good. If this was only a month sooner man. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: so, I've been trying to tell @H2O all morning he had nothing to worry about, that wave 2 could be money for you guys, hopefully he will listen to me now. I've been consistently on the side of this will be an ok storm all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I would think by 3pm LWX is going to start issuing advisories and Winter Storm Watches. Probably want to see the 12z Euro before making the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1206 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 MDZ501-502-WVZ050-055-501>506-200015- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.180320T2100Z-180321T2100Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Hampshire- Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1206 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or more are possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 CMC is basically a copy of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is my forecast to a T for my buddy in your neck of the woods. I can see some upside too in the snow. Tomorrow is going to get quite loud during the day with all the sleet. Would be nice to catch a rumble of thunder. Soundings look good. If this was only a month sooner man. . Oh man if it was only mid February... yeah, certainly Wednesday has upside potential for somebody. Banding always creates winners and losers. And elevation will play a role as well of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: CMC is basically a copy of the GFS lovely. GFS was 10" IMBY. Of course it won't happen exactly that way but... i may actually get close to that early December snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: LWX starting to roll out WSW. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1206 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 MDZ501-502-WVZ050-055-501>506-200015- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.180320T2100Z-180321T2100Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Hampshire- Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1206 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or more are possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions in snow. Significant reductions in visibility are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Yep, but only for the far western areas. I can see why they're keeping it limited, since it's hard to justify warning criteria for most since this is all coming over a period of over 24 hours and two waves. If it was 3-6" in 12 hours or less, then a watch/warning would make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: CMC is basically a copy of the GFS model consistency...nice to see. I'm sure we can still fail, but that is mostly just battered snowless syndrome kicking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: 24 hours to go not even a WATCH yet, and during rush hour, LWX better got on it. I am somewhat surprised they havent hoisted watches for at least the northern tier, and West of the BR. In the past, they have put them up for borderline events, if only to drop them to advisories later on. Edit: well, nvm. some are rolling out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC is basically a copy of the GFS NW VA is over a foot through 36 -- I think thats almost all snow out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gonna go out on a limb and say CMC is gonna show a ridiculous amount of snow on TT clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Here's what LWX is thinking for now. 2-5" for most, so an advisory makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, yoda said: NW VA is over a foot through 36 Spread is significantly narrow with 12z so far. We can be pretty comfortable that wave 2 is going to do "it". The jack zones are inherently tricky. No sense reading into that piece until probably this time tomorrow. I expect as usual to fall in between the big and little totals. I always do. 4" is becoming likely now. I think my max is 6". That part of my thought process hasn't changed. I can see how it could break better but it's low odds proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Here's what LWX is thinking for now. 2-5" for most, so an advisory makes more sense. that was made at 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgriffin56 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Here's what LWX is thinking for now. 2-5" for most, so an advisory makes more sense. Is this old? they might move everyone up a tick after the Euro if that agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: Here's what LWX is thinking for now. 2-5" for most, so an advisory makes more sense. That was issued at 4:10 am Fozz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NWS point and click forecast only has me at 1-2" of snow/sleet accumulations. I imagine that will go up after the 12z suite, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Ninja'd...twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 A couple things to consider when trying to forecast LWX decision making. First, the possibility of significant sleet makes it more impactful than it otherwise would be. Second, the whole event is spread out over 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looking good in HoCo along Georgia Ave! I see 4” to maybe 6-7 max by Bob down in Rockville. More like 6-8 lollipop 10” up by me. Another typical storm where snow totals will increase an inch every few miles along Georgia ave. I think latitude will help, not just The classic NW to SE setup. Major snows coming for Frederick and points west. Olney and points north see WSW snowfall in my opinion. Bob is real close to low level WSW totals. Thays my guess. I really like the upper air look on 12z overall. Not concerned about meso and QPF totals. Don’t be suckered in people. 7-1” ratios tops unless it’s at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Lwx still not that inpressed. Low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tuesday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday night. There is a slight winter storm threat Tuesday through early Wednesday. If the threat materializes, travel disruptions may result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 We have pretty good agreement on the 12Z's so far that Leesburg and west will start as snow and most likely stay snow for the event. The northern Shenandoah Valley up 81 and west out to Deep Creek seem to be the favored area with wave one. There is a lull out here from midday Tuesday until Tuesday evening of very light snow. But once the coastal gets cranking we go over to good rates again. The details need to be worked out on banding features with the coastal. But it seems north east would be favored areas for that. I am thinking 5-8 is the most realistic call for my area. With possible 10+ upside depending on any banding and elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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