nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS sets up the CCB on the eastern shore this run. I’d trust the mesos for nailing this down and we’re still too far out but I like seeing it in the area on guidance. GFS is a good run imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS isn't showing the same sleet bomb as the NAMs did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: GFS sets up the CCB on the eastern shore this run. I’d trust the mesos for nailing this down and we’re still too far out but I like seeing it in the area on guidance. GFS is a good run imo GFS not as compact with h5 closing off. It could be right but even with a broader trough/less energetic ULL, it still get the job done very well. Round 2 is shaping up to be a lot of fun. I don't care who jacks. I just want us ALL to share fun for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Blue Ridge Mike said: How bad do you think the sleet will be? Not really sure. The models are all different when it comes to our area. I would bet we sleet for quite a while. But you are in a great spot with your elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What a pasting that would be for south central NJ at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 From 48-54 it basically stalls right off OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS looks pretty good with wave 2. More neg tilt and tucked low. Warn nose intrudes a second time before it get rolling pretty good again. 3 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS has us in a dryslot for a while. GFS is further north again, I don't know when the last run was that trended south. go with Bob C when needing analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: GFS not as compact with h5 closing off. It could be right but even with a broader trough/less energetic ULL, it still get the job done very well. Round 2 is shaping up to be a lot of fun. I don't care who jacks. I just want us ALL to share fun for once. THIS. I really don't care about mixing issues/accumulations at this moment. All that matters is we're getting a bomb of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, H2O said: go with Bob C when needing analysis Correct. Amped is usually pretty bad at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, H2O said: go with Bob C when needing analysis Amped is right but that's only one piece of the story. Wave 1 is less interesting to me (and you) for obvious reasons. GFS def gets the job done for all with wave 2. Surface sub 32 with nice sounding for snow growth. I'll post shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The GFS is almost identical to the RGEM with the precip type at onset. Starts as snow from Leesburg west. maybe we are finally starting to see some agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS is a nice 3-5" event for most of the area. More for Delmarva and the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Lol GFS kuchera says 5" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This run is way better. Much more precip over us Tuesday night into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Silly precip bomb over Philly robs us. Not sure that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgriffin56 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Fozz said: GFS is a nice 3-5" event for most of the area. More for Delmarva and the M/D line. Less for EZF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Check out this sounding @ 12z wed. Not "perfect" but no doubt a deep winter scene ongoing. Dendrites sticking on contact and roads have long since caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, TSSN+ said: This run is way better. Much more precip over us Tuesday night into Wednesday. I like that snow depth is up there too. It's usually really low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GFS Kuchera This is believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs is wicked. I don’t really care about maxing out the potential. It’s just nice to have a region wide event. I have a Jeep with all terrains...if I have to chase I will lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Now look at the eastern shore during the height. THIS is heavy snow. Look at the omegas in the dgz. Low viz heavies right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 24 hours to go not even a WATCH yet, and during rush hour, LWX better got on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: Gfs is wicked. I don’t really care about maxing out the potential. It’s just nice to have a region wide event. I have a Jeep with all terrains...if I have to chase I will lol. You should do it! More power to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Lol GFS kuchera says 5" for DC 5-6" not bad not bad for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Interestingly, Kuchera is an improvement over 10:1 for a lot of people. Is wave 2 supposed to be high ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Due to the prolonged nature of this storm, will there be any value in the GEFS for part two of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: 5-6" not bad not bad for late March. If I managed to get 5" this late in the year, that would be exceptional. I'd leave this winter a happy camper. Heck, even half of that. Paste bombs are awesome things to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 From now on i'm probably gonna be using Kuchera ratio especially for March snowstorms. It just isn't right to use the 10:1 ratio when you know ratios aren't going to be 10:1. But anyways, here is the Kuchera for the MA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The primary differences between the gfs and mesos for wave 2 is upper level support. Meso's are more robust. GFS is more progressive. But we can all see the potential here. Those HEAVIES on the delmarva could easily be here, sw va, north in PA. We just don't know but the potential is yelling at us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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