Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, high risk said: A friendly reminder with the NAMs and GFS that snow and sleet are tallied together in the model. So if 0.8" of liquid falls as sleet, the model outputs 0.8" of "snow water equivalent", and if a site like TT applies a 10:1 ratio, you get 8" of snow on the map in a scenario in which you'd have 2-3" of sleet on the ground. The Ferrier method (available on TT for the NAM3) is much more consistent with the model microphysics. If sleet is falling, it shows a high rime factor for the falling hydrometeors, and that is translated into a very low (~2:1) SLR. It's always possible that the NAM3 is overdoing the warm layer, so it could end up snowier than progged, but the Ferrier snow accumulation map *is consistent with what the model is doing*. The 10:1 is not. Yea, there is no way in hell that areas close to the cities are getting 1'+. Snowmaps couldn't me more misleading in this case. People need to look at soundings for their yards and figure out their own solution. I think I get 4" of snow out of this deal right now with a nice sleet base to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Interesting that the RGEM has an initial heavy snow thump to start tomorrow morning for basically HoCo and points north before mixing. That’s possible with WAA coming in hot and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 wow check out sw va lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Divide TT 3k by 4 and Wxbell by 5 and you're good to go TT is more than WXbell in this case though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 We're on a backside band from the surface and 850 lows during this panel. Upper level support from the closed ull in this location could enhance things as it all pulls away. I like the RGEM very much. Not perfect but complaining would be dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Initial thump tomorrow morning looks like mostly snow for the northern Shenandoah Valley on the RGEM Yep. And it stays all snow from roughly Winchester and N/W of there. It is a great run for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 WRF-ARW run at 00z kept N VA/DC in snow instead of sleet for the majority of round 1 fwiw... WRF-ARW2 keeps majority in sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's almost over around 60. Where do you see lots to come? Radar at 60h: Probably at least 2 more frames worth of snow after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: TT is more than WXbell in this case though! TT is always overdone. Wxbell is usually more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Both WRF-ARWs run at 00z kept N VA/DC in snow instead of sleet for the majority of round 1 fwiw Yea. Its too soon to say anything definitively as far a precip type. But the precip and heavy precip seems like a lock with round 1 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Anybody got a link for the extended RGEM? I am not sure which model cycles it runs. But I would love to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. And it stays all snow from roughly Winchester and N/W of there. It is a great run for our area. 1.0" QPF through 48 for you and I. All snow with some more still left to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I need a northern tier update from @HighStakes or @losetoa6 or @psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Way too much worrying about meso scale things at 48-60 hours. Bottom line is a deepening 985 low captured and stalled 50 miles east of OC is going to CCB us good. Does that mean 3" or 8" or 12" will depend on meso scale stuff we won't know at 48 hours. But that track is money. Shame this is march 22 and not feb 22 or we would be looking at 2 feet here. Unfortunately we're gonna lose a lot of accumulation. Probably all the waa even up here I expect at most 1-3" of sleet/snow mix with that. But beggars can't be choosers and this is set up good to be a flush hit with the coastal. My one big concern is I wish it was coming in at night though. Timing matters this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I need a northern tier update from @HighStakes or @losetoa6 or @psuhoffman Get your shovel tuned up. You'll mix for shorter than the rest of us. Sleet probably for a while. But 6" of snow is becoming likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: I need a northern tier update from @HighStakes or @losetoa6 or @psuhoffman It's setting up where the northern tier will do very well. We get that low placement and capture that the models seem to be latching onto and we are probably golden. Let's see what the globals have to say in a few though before we start pulling out our shovels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Get your shovel tuned up. You'll mix for shorter than the rest of us. Sleet probably for a while. But 6" of snow is becoming likely. They are in the basement all dusted off. Thank you! Playing catch up at work and not following the runs very well. 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: It's setting up where the northern tier will do very well. We get that low placement and capture that the models seem to be latching onto and we are probably golden. Let's see what the globals have to say in a few though before we start pulling out our shovels. Thanks. Timing still what it has been? Early start tomorrow with a mix off/on all day, then all snow tomorrow night into wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, mappy said: They are in the basement all dusted off. Thank you! Playing catch up at work and not following the runs very well. Thanks. Timing still what it has been? Early start tomorrow with a mix off/on all day, then all snow tomorrow night into wednesday? Sounds about right. Think the mix up in our region may a quick burst of snow initially over to a somewhat decent sleet event before we flip back over to snow late afternoon, evening. About ready to walk out the door so that is just a quick observation without looking into depth on it from the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 FYI just issued from PIT URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1132 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 MDZ001-WVZ512>514-192345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.180320T2100Z-180321T2100Z/ Garrett-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD, Grantsville, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan Valley 1132 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 8 inches with potential for more than a foot. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In West Virginia, Eastern Preston and Tucker County. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I was just looking over some of the Cobb numbers on Bufkit and the ratio's for the 12Z NAM run were around 4 or 5 to 1 when the snow is falling. That seems pretty realistic to me with the temps being modeled. 5 or 6 inches seems like the most realistic call out here IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Frederick Mike Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I was just looking over some of the Cobb numbers on Bufkit and the ratio's for the 12Z NAM run were around 4 or 5 to 1 when the snow is falling. That seems pretty realistic to me with the temps being modeled. 5 or 6 inches seems like the most realistic call out here IMO. How bad do you think the sleet will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Anybody got a link for the extended RGEM? I am not sure which model cycles it runs. But I would love to see it. It runs every time the RGEM runs. The 12z run isn't out yet, but when it is the 84-hour qpf as snow maps will show up here. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_12/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_12/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif Of course usual caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: TSIP? How often is that an obs reported... Lots of it during the Superstorm in upper NW. Whenever I think of it, I can still feel the wind-driven sleet stinging my face. There were several CG strikes as well that Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Sounds about right. Think the mix up in our region may a quick burst of snow initially over to a somewhat decent sleet event before we flip back over to snow late afternoon, evening. About ready to walk out the door so that is just a quick observation without looking into depth on it from the latest runs. thank you, friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're on a backside band from the surface and 850 lows during this panel. Upper level support from the closed ull in this location could enhance things as it all pulls away. I like the RGEM very much. Not perfect but complaining would be dumb Yea. I pretty much agree with everyone. There’s ways this could boom or bust but the potential is there without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On GFS, looks like DC flirts with snow late morning. Rain to sleet before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS looks pretty good with wave 2. More neg tilt and tucked low. Warn nose intrudes a second time before it get rolling pretty good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS has us in a dryslot for a while. GFS is further north again, I don't know when the last run was that trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS is very close to us with the good banding at hour 51, Annapolis to BWI and points northeast look to do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS CCB's the hell out of the delmarva. Def a boom out there. I'm not going to complain and I like where all this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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