ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: Take that snowfall totals for DE and divide it by half. Ratios won't be 10:1, unless somehow the temps are below freezing, which probably won't happen until by the end of the snowstorm. But saw a pretty high QPF, and that has some chance of making up for the low ratios. Dividing by half still gives pretty great totals, and the sleet may accumulate some too - wouldn't surprise me to get a 1-2" layer of sleet like last March, but this March, we get snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Quick glance but the 3K is very close to exactly what we want to see. If we can't score with that low placement off of OC and the stall when the 500's catch up then this just wasn't meant to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: Looking at that wet 06Z NAM 12km run with Bufkit shows 0.36" liquid falling as freezing rain at MRB through 2:00 p.m. tomorrow with temps near 30, then 0.46" more as sleet until midnight tomorrow night. Hopefully the model is too warm upstairs. Yep, with each passing second I become more convinced that we see lots of rain and sleet, especially down here, then by the time we switch to snow the off-shore coastal robs our moisture and sends it to PA. We'll be left with light non-accumulating snow Wed morning and a crusty coating of sleet on the grass. On the plus side, we may have a solid rain storm. You have a better chance up there to cash-in with at least some snow from the initial thump. I feel - once again - like I'm in no-man's land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What is a better model for this setup currently? The 3k Nam or 12 or 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3k NAM. Totals cut off at 60h but it's still snowing quite moderately then, with what seems to be lots to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, ryanconway63 said: What is a better model for this setup currently? The 3k Nam or 12 or 32 NAM3 can sometimes overdeepen systems, but it's overall a much better model than the 12. There is no 32 km NAM; that is just the 12 km model displayed on a 32 km grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Kuchera shows 24-30" amounts in western Allegany County, MD on the 3k NAM Frostburg/Cumberland keep showing up as jackpot zones on multiple models...I think that area is going to do very well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Quick glance but the 3K is very close to exactly what we want to see. If we can't score with that low placement off of OC and the stall when the 500's catch up then this just wasn't meant to be. Yeah, 3k is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: What is a better model for this setup currently? The 3k Nam or 12 or 32 Only use 3k... ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m fine with either honestly. I probably don’t want to be raining at 11pm tomorrow lol but I have no expectations. Ultimately I guess it doesn't matter for me since management at my office has gotten VERY stingy with snowdays an I'll probably be in the office anyway... But heavy sleet or even thundersleet could be very fun. I'm expecting awful commutes both tomorrow and Wednesday. This storm has been interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 3k on TT. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: NAM3 can sometimes overdeepen systems, but it's overall a much better model than the 12. There is no 32 km NAM; that is just the 12 km model displayed on a 32 km grid. How do you feel about the temp profiles on the 3K vs the 12? From what little I have seen it looks as if the 3k is outperforming in that regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Quick glance but the 3K is very close to exactly what we want to see. If we can't score with that low placement off of OC and the stall when the 500's catch up then this just wasn't meant to be. That's pretty much all we can ask for in Mid March. Hell we will be nowcasting this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Divide TT 3k by 4 and Wxbell by 5 and you're good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 3K is a mauling for the NW burbs. No other way to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I am completely okay with sleet to start - moderate rain I would hate. I think an inch or two of sleet could put down a nice base to accumulate snow on top of once we switch over to all snow. Watching hours of moderate rain will suck, though. I fully am at peace with both my climo and my altitude. I do expect a goodly period of decent soaking rainfall, maybe a little sleet then hopefully an inch of snow IF I can manage that. Last I heard, all the heavy snow is north a tad. No scythe needed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Agree with folks that freezing rain is not really a threat here. Sleet is the story, and if the 3k NAM is right I could see 1-2” accumulate before the flip to powder Wednesday morning. Yeah, that warm nose is really stout. It's going to take a while to get rid of. With some weak convection likely in the mix, that could play havoc with p-types Wed morning before the flip to snow. Winds may start to become an issue as well as a MAUL-ish sounding starts to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 so... sleet and snow for me. okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, 3k is ideal. RGEM is going to do the same thing with surface and 850 lows stalling for a time off the mouth of the bay. 3k 850 FGEN panels looks sweet. I know the storm is going to be messy but there is no doubt legit potential for high impact even in the urban corridors. Very interesting atmospheric process we're seeing unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 3k NAM. Totals cut off at 60h but it's still snowing quite moderately then, with what seems to be lots to come. It's almost over around 60. Where do you see lots to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM is going to do the same thing with surface and 850 lows stalling for a time off the mouth of the bay. 3k 850 FGEN panels looks sweet. I know the storm is going to be messy but there is no doubt legit potential for high impact even in the urban corridors. Very interesting atmospheric process we're seeing unfold. Where do you get your RGEM from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Where do you get your RGEM from? It's out to 42 on TT, just the MSLP & Percip, not the radar rain/frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Its already out to 48... precip looks really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where do you get your RGEM from? Wxbell. @ 48 we're in a band of snow (not terribly heavy) with more to come. Column is great. Low is slowly pulling away. I just like the setup for Wed now. We won't know how the banding/evolution breaks for another 12-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 3k NAM. Totals cut off at 60h but it's still snowing quite moderately then, with what seems to be lots to come. I would take that and run with it, because it gives wxtrix a foot of snow at least. She has only had 1.8 inches all winter. That aint right. It's supposed be I get 1.8 inches all winter, and the mountains get about 70 inches all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 RGEM starts as snow from roughly Leesburg West. Pretty big sleet storm east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 A friendly reminder with the NAMs and GFS that snow and sleet are tallied together in the model. So if 0.8" of liquid falls as sleet, the model outputs 0.8" of "snow water equivalent", and if a site like TT applies a 10:1 ratio, you get 8" of snow on the map in a scenario in which you'd have 2-3" of sleet on the ground. The Ferrier method (available on TT for the NAM3) is much more consistent with the model microphysics. If sleet is falling, it shows a high rime factor for the falling hydrometeors, and that is translated into a very low (~2:1) SLR. It's always possible that the NAM3 is overdoing the warm layer, so it could end up snowier than progged, but the Ferrier snow accumulation map *is consistent with what the model is doing*. The 10:1 is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 3k on TT. lol If you subtract whatever it shows before ~12z Wednesday, then it’s probably legit and that is about 3-6” for everyone. Throw in 1-2” of sleet and it’s a solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Initial thump tomorrow morning looks like mostly snow for the northern Shenandoah Valley on the RGEM edit- ninja'd by CLskinsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 RGEM has 2 closed contours @ h5 in a good spot. SLP is a bit too far out in front off the coast but the back side of the storm would still be cold powder with upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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