Interstate Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1.75-2 inches of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I'm a little confused with the giddiness. One, I thought we all agreed to ignore the 12km NAM. Two, the precip that arrives with the second round seems very light, at least for the DC area. I know that others may do well, but I'm pretty sure that I will continue my 26 month streak of still being able to see grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Concerned? about what? It's snowing Wednesday Hahaha yeah you're right...I deleted that post. I just want maximum rakeage not watch it go to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, H2O said: Worrying about the CCB and all that right now is silly. NAM had NE MD getting it a ton in a recent storm that didn't pan out. Its not all that believable IMO NE MD jackpot doesn’t happen. I’ve accepted that. What will happen is there will be two mini-jacks. One up near Wilmington, and the other in Baltimore County down through Montgomery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kleimax said: looks like we could get some serious ZR with wave one up here northwest of Baltimore.. is that something we should be concerned with in mid March? I was just looking at that as well. csnavywx pointed out that accretion should be limited during the day, but we get about another 0.2" overnight. The NAM 3k gives some areas west of Baltimore over 1" qpf as ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'm a little confused with the giddiness. One, I thought we all agreed to ignore the 12z NAM. Two, the precip that arrives with the second round seems very light, at least for the DC area. I know that others may do well, but I'm pretty sure that I will continue my 26 month streak of still being able to see grass. i'd like to see that NS energy catch up a little sooner to the developing low and close off a little further south. that's my takeaway from it. philly would love this run, but looks like we still get into some snow on the backside. otherwise, wave 2 has a lot more potential than it did a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Precip finally shuts off out here at hour 65. Almost 40 hours of some form of winter precip in March. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 It looks like the storm is coming together. Dynamics, 850s. surface temps are going to come into view as we close in on game time. Its late March and we have a chance to close a mostly snowless winter with some winter madness. I am embracing this storm. I think it has a chance to overachieve based on the guidance. Time for the GFS and Euro to start locking in at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I don't see a ZR threat except for way west. Ground is too warm and it will be really marginal. Tons of IP in a short period covering the roads is the bigger ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I just wanna say that I hope you guys get rakes like the 12k shows. This one could be great for all of us. I am the northern guy pulling for you southern folk. Plus I get some love on this one too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 With the potential ZR talk - it's worth remembering that moderate to heavy ZR is not going to accrete well. Light ZR is what does best. Factor in that it's March as well and we won't have DEEP ((20s) cold and ZR is probably not a huge threat for roadways. Elevated surfaces could slicken up. Better odds of sleet causing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: i'd like to see that NS energy catch up a little sooner to the developing low and close off a little further south. that's my takeaway from it. philly would love this run, but looks like we still get into some snow on the backside. otherwise, wave 2 has a lot more potential than it did a couple days ago. We basically need the 6z NAM depiction which was exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'm a little confused with the giddiness. One, I thought we all agreed to ignore the 12km NAM. Two, the precip that arrives with the second round seems very light, at least for the DC area. I know that others may do well, but I'm pretty sure that I will continue my 26 month streak of still being able to see grass. I am pretty confident we are watching the best CCB snows shift NE like it has every other storm this winter. Unless it comes down like gangbusters here this storm will be a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'm a little confused with the giddiness. One, I thought we all agreed to ignore the 12km NAM. Two, the precip that arrives with the second round seems very light, at least for the DC area. I know that others may do well, but I'm pretty sure that I will continue my 26 month streak of still being able to see grass. I'm honestly confused as well. I see people posting things about how great the CCB looks and how we are getting crushed and this looks like a big event and then I see snowfall maps and I see an inch of liquid alone being wasted on snow/sleet/rain for the first half of the storm, and then I see fairly light rates for a CCB. Except for the northern half of Maryland, it's basically just watching rain fall in a frozen form of one kind or another for 30 hours, and even the northern tier likely only gets a decent snow, nothing crazy. Maybe it gets more impressive as we get closer? But we awfully close now to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Mmmm, wind-driven sleet and sleet showers with an occasional rumble of thunder. Gonna make me feel like I'm back in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, PhineasC said: I don't see a ZR threat except for way west. Ground is too warm and it will be really marginal. Tons of IP in a short period covering the roads is the bigger ice threat. Yea I think that front end showing ZR will end up plain rain for most of us. Will be interesting to see if part two can produce enough snow quick enough during the day on Weds to amount to much on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: We basically need the 6z NAM depiction which was exactly that. i don't know. i thought there was a little more separation between the streams on 6z. i like the potential more for 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: I don't see a ZR threat except for way west. Ground is too warm and it will be really marginal. Tons of IP in a short period covering the roads is the bigger ice threat. I think the ZR threat is marginal at best. Its going to go down like some other posters have mentioned. Rain/zr to sleet with wave 1. Light zr/ip to heavy snow with wave 2. We will score with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Mmmm, wind-driven sleet and sleet showers with an occasional rumble of thunder. Gonna make me feel like I'm back in the Midwest. Man that TT sounding is a nice design. Really helps to have the DGZ and omega overlaid like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Agree with folks that freezing rain is not really a threat here. Sleet is the story, and if the 3k NAM is right I could see 1-2” accumulate before the flip to powder Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2"+ QPF through 60 on 12z 3km NAM and still more QPF to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Usual caveat that 10:1 is not what this event will be. But I feel like snowfall depth maps have WAY underestimated snow, even in this winter, IMBY, so here ya go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 seems like people have different views on 12z. rgem is running now and looked a little south of 12z nam, so we'll see how that run plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t even bother with 12k anymore thanks to the great mets here. This is the kind of event where I might be on call with my scythe the entire event. Good event or not. A lot of risk with this setup near the cities, though I think we’ll be ok with reasonable expectations. I am completely okay with sleet to start - moderate rain I would hate. I think an inch or two of sleet could put down a nice base to accumulate snow on top of once we switch over to all snow. Watching hours of moderate rain will suck, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 2"+ QPF through 60 on 12z 3km NAM and still more QPF to come 3k is solid with wave 2 even if it’s beyond it’s ideal range. Widespread 3-6” after the sleet bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yeah, 3k looks pretty great with the second wave. Even better than the 12k. Ends at 60h and still snowing at least moderately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Ferrier is decent too (still snowing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Usual caveat that 10:1 is not what this event will be. But I feel like snowfall depth maps have WAY underestimated snow, even in this winter, IMBY, so here ya go: Take that snowfall totals for DE and divide it by half. Ratios won't be 10:1, unless somehow the temps are below freezing, which probably won't happen until by the end of the snowstorm. But saw a pretty high QPF, and that has some chance of making up for the low ratios. March climo just doesn't support 10:1 ratios very often. My guess is just stick to the Kuchera or Ferrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Kuchera shows 24-30" amounts in western Allegany County, MD on the 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 3k is solid with wave 2 even if it’s beyond it’s ideal range. Widespread 3-6” after the sleet bomb. Yea. I think this will be the scenario. If the sleet bomb is real the Tuesday evening rush our could be a disaster. People will be expecting cold rain (still a real possibility) but will be caught off guard because heavy sleet will screw up the roads quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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