yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 850s go below zero at DCA at hour 29 2mT at or just below freezing as well from hour 29 on at DCA... so you would think it would be snowing at DCA at hour 29 and on... must be a sneaky warm layer in there somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Well I really don't see Freezing Rain during the day... We have had some warm days and it is March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The initial thump tomorrow looks quite good. Leading edge band so classic for strong frontogenesis and heavy precip. NAM has a pronounced warm tongue so could be a lot of IP in there too. GFS is more of snow, then PLSN combo. After that it appears the DGZ dries out. I wouldn't expect a lot of accumulation near DC as that occurs. Later on tomorrow night as the second s/w moves in, deep lift and Rh redevlop, so snow should begin once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: SREF are crap models, but mean is creeping up...hopefully its a good sign (as it usually is). Sref are awful. Some of the members have severe suppression and over amplification issues. But...even if stuff is crap it's still better to see means going the right way not the wrong way. As you get closer even an awful model will get closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 stepped away from the machine and work is gonna be busy today, but glancing over 6z gfs, i feel a lot better about the 2nd half of this storm. gfs joined the h5 low sliding underneath us party. wednesday is the make or break day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The initial thump tomorrow looks quite good. Leading edge band so classic for strong frontogenesis and heavy precip. NAM has a pronounced warm tongue so could be a lot of IP in there too. GFS is more of snow, then PLSN combo. After that it appears the DGZ dries out. I wouldn't expect a lot of accumulation near DC as that occurs. Later on tomorrow night as the second s/w moves in, deep lift and Rh redevlop, so snow should begin once again. Oh man, you know it's good when this guy shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 closed h5 low at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sref are awful. Some of the members have severe suppression and over amplification issues. But...even if stuff is crap it's still better to see means going the right way not the wrong way. As you get closer even an awful model will get closer to reality. Yes, I stated this...I wasn't saying use them for any meaningful forecasting...but usually if the mean is high here, it's a good signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh man, you know it's good when this guy shows up. Haha, or we have to deal with this stuff for IAD,DCA etc. Haven't looked hard yet, will be in this aftn. Worried about some mix to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Haha, or we have to deal with this stuff for IAD,DCA etc. Haven't looked hard yet, will be in this aftn. Worried about some mix to start. Oh, we're gonna mix for sure down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Man. What a long drawn out event this is going to be. At 48 the second wave is starting to get its act together on the NAM. The stuff that falls between 36 and 48 is light. But it never stops snowing out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: closed h5 low at 42 nam indicates an aggressive system for wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Wave 1 pretty much trending as thought yesterday. Too much warm air flooding in aloft for snow but nice, stout CAA in the PBL, leading to a mostly rain to sleet/ice scenario. Luckily it's during the day and limited in duration, so accretion should be very limited. SW'ly winds aloft (with subsidence) behind the initial batch of frontogenesis and WAA aloft will scour out the ice-crystal bearing layers aloft, leaving moisture and lift confined to mostly below 600mb. That eventually means drizzle and freezing drizzle for a prolonged period until forcing aloft from wave 2 begins to act on the column. Roads could get nasty Tue. night/Wed morning with subfreezing temps, freezing drizzle and heavy rain having washed the roads clear of any salt. Hopefully the relative warmth tomorrow along with 38F 2-inch soil temps delays freezing enough to not cause an issue, but it's going to be close, especially after 12+ hours of subfreezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2nd wave looks much less impressive for DC and points northwest at hour 51, but of course we're talking about the post 48 hours NAM so we expect run to run inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: nam indicates an aggressive system for wednesday. Which is good news, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Which is good news, right? Yeah but it shifted the coastal slightly further offshore and north, so we don't get into the CCB really this run. More of a NE maryland to Philly to NYC deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12k NAM sums it up: LP over eastern KY transfers its energy off the coast into a new LP: Which is wave 2. Also, the new LP stalls out or slows real down, until eventually the trough moves east and the confluence moves further North into Canada and the system is allowed to move east. Wave #1 is probably gonna be too warm for the big I-95 cities like D.C and Balt. Maybe Philly. But this run is a little colder, and that's a good sign, however the NAM has been really jumpy on where to place the precip and way overdoes the snowfall. Doesn't take into the account that the ratios will probably not be 10:1. After that, wave #2 is when the good stuff happens. Temperatures cool down enough for a changeover to snow as the new LP (wave #2, to be specific), which is situated off the OBX, pulls cold air down from the north. Big time snowfall rates if it verifies. That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Nice banding up through the Baltimore area midday Wednesday. What an event this is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 development of the second low is worthy on the NAM - really starts to crank in the early AM wednesday hours. and FWIW we have 850s, and 32 degree line is along or east of i-95 during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Wave 1 pretty much trending as thought yesterday. Too much warm air flooding in aloft for snow but nice, stout CAA in the PBL, leading to a mostly rain to sleet/ice scenario. Luckily it's during the day and limited in duration, so accretion should be very limited. That's a good point. Otherwise this could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Hr 51 on the 12k is money. Really gets cranking. 987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Which is good news, right? looks like the upper level low goes directly overhead. i don't know about precip/temps, but i don't know how we can beat (maybe if it was a little further south?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Nam shifted into SE PA with the heaviest snows Wednesday. Hopefully that comes back over us in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I'm starting to fall in love with wave 2. 0z Euro was inbetween a crushing and the previous run. I expect a nice fill in with 12z. Nam speaking for itself with wave 2. Giggity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 a solid 30 hours a winter, and left with seems about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 looks like we could get some serious ZR with wave one up here northwest of Baltimore.. is that something we should be concerned with in mid March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: a solid 30 hours a winter, and left with seems about right I think snow depth is too conservative in almost every case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Might not even have to leave oc haha. Perfect placement for a nice deform band to set up 700mb and 850mb look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah the whole CCB went from our area to philly and NYC, which of course matches up with what happens in reality with these coastal redevelopers a lot of the time. I'll be more concerned if the Euro/GFS show it. Concerned? about what? It's snowing Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Worrying about the CCB and all that right now is silly. NAM had NE MD getting it a ton in a recent storm that didn't pan out. Its not all that believable IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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