stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, Jandurin said: 4" on grass or 4" on road? I like to see the roads covered for a legit storm..but at this point, I'd take wet blacktop and snow on grass. Beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, heck of a storm inbound. I just scanned everything. It's a kitchen sink followed my midwinter powder if it breaks right...and it's looking to break right. I expect sig changes for the better on the 12z euro. Everything else looks great. Good times. SREF are crap models, but mean is creeping up...hopefully its a good sign (as it usually is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Clueless said: Even with elevation west of Leesburg I’m expecting more rain than frozen. Anything over three inches is a win for me. You will end up being very happy then I would guess. I mean all guidance says everyone from you west is going to get hit pretty hard. I am expecting some mix up front even out here. But it appears the column cools pretty rapidly over the Shenandoah Valley and east to the Blue Ridge. I dont know exactly where you are. But if you are up on the mountain by Mt. Weather I think you are going to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Remember March 2013 I think it was and the SREF mean was like 9" for DCA. Cantore went in front of the Washington monument to report. It just white rained. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: You will end up being very happy then I would guess. I mean all guidance says everyone from you west is going to get hit pretty hard. I am expecting some mix up front even out here. But it appears the column cools pretty rapidly over the Shenandoah Valley and east to the Blue Ridge. I dont know exactly where you are. But if you are up on the mountain by Mt. Weather I think you are going to get crushed. I have a feeling you're gonna get a great hit from this storm. You're in a sweet position to get something, possible from wave 1 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I lucked out and managed 5" of wet snow mainly on grass on December 9. If that gets topped here in Germantown, I will be elated. If any area deserves to get nailed, it's that Winchester - Martinsburg - Hagerstown corridor. I think one poster from there has less than 2" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, heck of a storm inbound. I just scanned everything. It's a kitchen sink followed my midwinter powder if it breaks right...and it's looking to break right. I expect sig changes for the better on the 12z euro. Everything else looks great. Good times. You were always expecting to punt most of round 1 but I was hoping to cash in on some of it. I guess there’s still a chance there, but it looks lower than 24 hours ago. I get nervous relying on a CCB to develop overhead. Too much margin for error on bands and placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like I'll have to take a drive to Salisbury from OC it looks like they will be a eastern shore sweetspot again even tho it will likely snow in oc aswell. Ocean temps are still cold. Nam went bonkers but even the GFS lays 5+ after temps go bellow freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 hours ago, mappy said: I want at least 2" since I haven't gotten that in one event since early December. Ouch... I had no idea it's been that long up your way. Hopefully this storm easily beats that bar and hits warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: TSIP? How often is that an obs reported... two storms ago, ewr was reporting TSIP and TS-SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM runs will be fun I think....06z was an early morning raking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Woah. The 12z NAM at 27 hours is a complete sleet and slop mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, heck of a storm inbound. I just scanned everything. It's a kitchen sink followed my midwinter powder if it breaks right...and it's looking to break right. I expect sig changes for the better on the 12z euro. Everything else looks great. Good times. Loving your optimism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Temps looking better on the 12km Edit: for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z NAM colder at 27 vs 06z at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12k NAM goes sleet crazy. 1st wave gets some sleet going before wave 2, but within 2 or 3 hours the snow depth map (sleet depth in this situation?) goes up 0.5-1" within 2 hours. Must be snow depth maps going haywire, or that's some heavy sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12Z NAM extremely wet with the initial thump. But it looks pretty sleety even out here through 30. From then on I get shellacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I'd love to see what the soundings look like but I think only the 3K NAM has that on TT. Looks like a hell of a sleetfest tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Some potential there for convection. Moist neutral to slightly unstable for upright convection peeking in there on the soundings. Keep in mind the warm nose will likely be a bit stronger than progged, so parcels lifted off that layer have a better chance of being unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Heavy March ZR anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: Woah. The 12z NAM at 27 hours is a complete sleet and slop mess. I think most products like this are useless. I would think that soundings and precip panels would provide a much better indication of what might happen. Just look at that map. It has a small circle of just rain in the middle of the snow/sleet in sw PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This should be built into expectations here. I'm fine with anything frozen at this point. Been saying this since the weekend...if we can get 4" of snow here, I'm good. 4"? Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Most get a SE flow aloft = sleet or freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Is freezing rain going to be an issue or should it be mostly sleet and/or rain for the start? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 850s go below zero at DCA at hour 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Most areas approaching 1" qpf by hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like a lot less sleet on 12k NAM than compare to last run. 850s colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Flip to snow at DCA MUCH faster than 6z showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Radar lighting up at hour 39 to our SW in central WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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