Jandurin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Cranky seems to be an anti-hype weather pragmatist. Seems good at pointing out all the parts that will contribute to upcoming storms. He hypes when appropriate. Definitely conservative, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The 6z 3k is great for just about everyone in this subforum. Nice front end thump. Followed by the coastal that just stripes our area. Obviously the front end will be better for elevated areas. But the run hammers everyone once the coastal gets cranking and the flow is favorable. I don' know that we could wish for a better outcome than what it is showing in March in all honesty. One of the best frames...but, there we many more than just this one...Check out the 2.8" in Eastern WV! 3k is an areawide thump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, Jandurin said: He hypes when appropriate. Definitely conservative, though. 23 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Cranky seems to be an anti-hype weather pragmatist. Seems good at pointing out all the parts that will contribute to upcoming storms. Yep...it even says so on his Twitter handle: "I do weather stuff. I don't do weather hysterics stuff." Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This map is pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 42 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The 6z 3k is great for just about everyone in this subforum. Nice front end thump. Followed by the coastal that just stripes our area. Obviously the front end will be better for elevated areas. But the run hammers everyone once the coastal gets cranking and the flow is favorable. I don' know that we could wish for a better outcome than what it is showing in March in all honesty. The 3k inside of 48 hours has been pretty decent. I’d still favor the globals for track and timing at this point. But that would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Thundersleet? Sweet https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/975715284400123904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This map is pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 When does precip start with the first wave? I think that is key, we need the precip in before the sun rises IMO. Doesn't look likely though. I think if it starts tomorrow at 10am, it will be a lot of the non sticking variety. 2nd wave will be a different story....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, smokeybandit said: Thundersleet? Sweet https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/975715284400123904 TSIP? How often is that an obs reported... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Temps and timing have me very concerned here. An awful lot of snow potentially will be wasted during daytime tomorrow, not to mention what falls as sleet/rain until then. Not nearly as confident as I was yesterday in this one. I need to reset my expectations to just having a good QPF event. Around here that's a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Timing is key here. Night time seems great, temps below freezing and no sun angle. I think we should be good. We are going to have problems in the day. There is no question. I thought 2nd wave was at night.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: Timing is key here. Night time seems great, temps below freezing and no sun angle. I think we should be good. We are going to have problems in the day. There is no question. I thought 2nd wave was at night.....? wave 1 comes in tonight and tomorrow. mostly tomorrow so don't expect too much in the way of road accumulation for places where you see snow. its wave 2 that comes in late tomorrow and overnight wednesday that most are hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6z north American guidance looked solid, but I didn’t like seeing the euro go so warm in the low levels for most of tomorrow. Seems clear that many of us are probably in for a long run of sleet tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: TSIP? How often is that an obs reported... Don’t recall which storm, but I’ve experienced Thundersleet just once ever. Thundersnow several times though. Would be awesome to maybe have a shot at the t-snow piece in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z north American guidance looked solid, but I didn’t like seeing the euro go so warm in the low levels for most of tomorrow. Seems clear that many of us are probably in for a long run of sleet tomorrow. yeah, i think sleet will even be a concern up my way midday tomorrow. 850 temp is +1 at 18z, but maybe the column will stay cool. temps are at or below freezing all day.... at least in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: Don’t recall which storm, but I’ve experienced Thundersleet just once ever. Thundersnow several times though. Would be awesome to maybe have a shot at the t-snow piece in the CCB. I recall a few years ago when there was a mega cold front in Feb , was raining , then sleet started with thunder and the entire transition to snow , and very heavy snow , which left 7 to 9 inches here in the Middletown area. I am sure Balt. County experienced the same thing as well. Was not that long ago maybe 3 to 4 years ago. Some will recall it I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Like others, I don’t mind sleet. If it starts with a sleet storm then accumulations will happen easier and surfaces will cool faster. Also if I remember correctly from last years March sleet storm, that stuff in significant quantities sticks around forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Like others, I don’t mind sleet. If it starts with a sleet storm then accumulations will happen easier and surfaces will cool faster. Also if I remember correctly from last years March sleet storm, that stuff in significant quantities sticks around forever. sleet is great as an appetizer, as you are right, lays down a nice cool coating. but if it sticks around for a while, when we weren't expecting it to (like last March) then it sucks and i hate it and i would rather it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Temps and timing have me very concerned here. An awful lot of snow potentially will be wasted during daytime tomorrow, not to mention what falls as sleet/rain until then. Not nearly as confident as I was yesterday in this one. I need to reset my expectations to just having a good QPF event. Around here that's a huge win. Looking at that wet 06Z NAM 12km run with Bufkit shows 0.36" liquid falling as freezing rain at MRB through 2:00 p.m. tomorrow with temps near 30, then 0.46" more as sleet until midnight tomorrow night. Hopefully the model is too warm upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: sleet is great as an appetizer, as you are right, lays down a nice cool coating. but if it sticks around for a while, when we weren't expecting it to (like last March) then it sucks and i hate it and i would rather it rain. I just remember it basically turning to sleet-Crete. This storm is better though because the sleet will just be a base layer, not the entire pie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Like others, I don’t mind sleet. If it starts with a sleet storm then accumulations will happen easier and surfaces will cool faster. Also if I remember correctly from last years March sleet storm, that stuff in significant quantities sticks around forever. If this starts off as frozen for anyone other than well WNW, then it’ll be a miracle. The rest of us should probably set our expectations to watching cold rain for a while and be prepared for when the column cools enough for a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, mattie g said: If this starts off as frozen for anyone other than well WNW, then it’ll be a miracle. The rest of us should probably set our expectations to watching cold rain for a while and be prepared for when the column cools enough for a changeover. Exactly. I’m expecting rain in my backyard until nightfall tomorrow which hopefully is when the ‘main show’ arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z north American guidance looked solid, but I didn’t like seeing the euro go so warm in the low levels for most of tomorrow. Seems clear that many of us are probably in for a long run of sleet tomorrow. This should be built into expectations here. I'm fine with anything frozen at this point. Been saying this since the weekend...if we can get 4" of snow here, I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4" on grass or 4" on road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: 4" on grass or 4" on road? Would assume most accumulation forecasts would be based on measurement on a snow board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Kmlwx said: Would assume most accumulation forecasts would be based on measurement on a snow board. I've never in my life thought to myself - I'll be happy if this much snow shows up as having fallen on a snow board measurement post storm BUT I think you're right. Still get surprised by how this board measures success and failure for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Even with elevation west of Leesburg I’m expecting more rain than frozen. Anything over three inches is a win for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 For those who said a non-impressive SREF was a red flag, Mean snow for DCA is up to 5.91", QPF is up to 2" DCA: 5.91" IAD: 7.18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Clueless said: Even with elevation west of Leesburg I’m expecting more rain than frozen. Anything over three inches is a win for me. Always good to be cautious especially mid to late March but in my opinion that might be a tad pessimistic on amounts. I certainly don't know but I think you're in a decent spot in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Heh, heck of a storm inbound. I just scanned everything. It's a kitchen sink followed my midwinter powder if it breaks right...and it's looking to break right. I expect sig changes for the better on the 12z euro. Everything else looks great. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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