CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: EPS has some utility still for the coastal as it falls outside of 48 hours. I like the improvements I have seen there over its 12z run. Actually like then very much to be honest. Made a strong move for a closer coastal that gets hung up off the coast as the 500's catch up. See a pretty decent increase in mean snow fall for the NW suburbs for that period of time as well. I'm not sure the usefulness of the ensembles this close in, but I have little doubt that if this plays out close to whats modeled on the op, the heaviest snow will end up NW of the cities. Its favored in strong coastals (should that occur) and especially late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS looks good! All of the models seem to be converging on the second wave as the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: GFS looks good! All of the models seem to be converging on the second wave as the main show. Ya it’s finally starting to get a clue. Hopefully next run will be precip laden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ultimately is going to be the coastal that makes or breaks this event, specifically where the ccb sets up. The main show looks to occur mostly during the daylight hours on Wed, so light to occasionally moderate snow wont get it done especially in the Urban areas. The initial wave has always been a bonus in my mind. Always thought that with the low positioning and it's strength that there would be issues with the temps (mid levels in particular) for the cities south and east regardless of what the snowfall maps were showing. The real make or break would involve the coastal. And from what I have seen so far from the Euro and the NAMs they have me fairly optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'm not sure the usefulness of the ensembles this close in, but I have little doubt that if this plays out close to whats modeled on the op, the heaviest snow will end up NW of the cities. Its favored in strong coastals (should that occur) and especially late in the season. I myself find the ensembles are useful outside of 48 hours (which is when the coastal development and evolution occur) especially when we are dealing with a complicated setup. I like the lower resolution to give me an idea if the ops are potentially over thinking the setup. Control also gives me an idea if we are having a resolution issue with the solution as well. Besides, I like looking at all the pretty snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GFS looks good! All of the models seem to be converging on the second wave as the main show. GFS did make a move at the 500's towards the Euro in regards to the evolution off the coast. Still a little to late going for the capture though. Hopefully we see that continue to move towards the Euro and the Euro continue to move towards a quicker capture as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS did make a move at the 500's towards the Euro in regards to the evolution off the coast. Still a little to late going for the capture though. Hopefully we see that continue to move towards the Euro and the Euro continue to move towards a quicker capture as well. Trof goes negative a smidge sooner, tucks wave 2 coastal closer to the coast and captures, then we’re looking like a boom? Do I have that right? If so, I’m guessing the 12z suite today will be the biggest crossroads runs of the year? Hmmmmm. Where have I heard this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 06z runs look improved (NAMs and GFS) and the 00z EURO looked fine as well as higher amounts for DC could come depending on banding features... hopefully the models are starting to catch on to the final results. I’m fine with rain - sleet - snow. My target is 3+ inches for the DC area (I’m on a decent hill so might be easier for me than downtown but I’m also in SE). Definitely interested to see if the 12z runs continue the nicer looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Ya it’s finally starting to get a clue. Hopefully next run will be precip laden. Gfs struggles with qpf in the ccb. Always underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Wow so close to a big dawg event for everyone on the euro, just need to tuck that low in a bit more and speed up the transfer a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: Trof goes negative a smidge sooner, tucks wave 2 coastal closer to the coast and captures, then we’re looking like a boom? Do I have that right? If so, I’m guessing the 12z suite today will be the biggest crossroads runs of the year? Hmmmmm. Where have I heard this before. Though I always prefer to see a negative tilt trough (at worst a neutral) I don't think it has near as much of an impact in this case as you would typically see. With such a broad trough this mitigates quite a bit the benefits. Which is a more northerly component to the track and the better ability for the low to intensify. In this case, on the 06Z GFS, what we are counting on is the 500's closing and then going for the capture of the low off the coast. The response from the low as this capture is ongoing is to either slow, stall or even retrograde backwards. Now 1 aspect of a negative tilt trough that i did not mention is that it gives the upper levels a better ability to capture the surface. So in a sense it may help somewhat for a quicker capture hopefully in a better position off our coast. What we really need to see here, besides the obvious closing off of the 500's, is less separation between the coastal and the closed upper low (whether quicker 500's or a slower developing low) allowing for a more southerly and closer to the coast solution when the low intensifies. The models for the most part are just a smidgen away from having this scenario play out, closer coastal stalling and throwing heavier precip into the dc/balt corridor. Now temps allowing we could possibly be talking a significant event for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Assuming the NAM is correct it shows a period of freezing rain at jyo prior to a prolonged sleet bomb then a quality amount of snow. Personally I'm skeptical of the freezing rain period so I think additional rain or a quicker sleet transition. Juicy storm regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Wow so close to a big dawg event for everyone on the euro, just need to tuck that low in a bit more and speed up the transfer a little. Yeah, the Euro definitely looked closer. One more tick like that at 12z and we could be under legit CCB snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs struggles with qpf in the ccb. Always underdone. Didn't look in depth but looking at the flow off the ocean through our region I thought the western shield was probably under done as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Please excuse my ignorance, probably lack of sleep but does ccb stand for cold conveyor belt in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs struggles with qpf in the ccb. Always underdone. Oh trust me I know. Lol. Gfs struggles with a lot of things . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Morning all. Big day today as we get closer to game time, lets keep the thread on track and banter where appropriate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, knglover said: Please excuse my ignorance, probably lack of sleep but does ccb stand for cold conveyor belt in this case? http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter12/warm_cold_conveyor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Haven't had a chance to catch up with the thread and given my work schedule this morning might not for a while so again sorry if this was said. The runs last evening that crapped the bed were focusing redevelopment after the waa wave passes on the primary in KY and WV. Yes there was a coastal but for a long time the primary was stalled and still dominant and the "ccb" was back in the Ohio valley. That prevented moisture transport and closed circulation with the coastal and delayed the upper energy phasing into the coastal. That's why the dry slot and spotty precip. Then when the jump finally happened and the coastal took over it was moving out and the best precip "jumped" over us. Very much like a miller b only from a very unorthodox evolution. My thoughts: unorthodox is not impossible. There are a few inland near miss examples in the KU book where something like that happened. Primary held too long and even with a perfect h5 pass and secondary location the heaviest snow was WV into western PA and there was lighter snows into the 95 corridor. It could go down that way. But I don't think so. I think we're still moving towards a more consolidated system if doing it two steps up one back. But even then we have to figure out temps and banding and ugh. This is one of the more complicated setups for what is a pretty straight forward blocking/trough setup to get snow. But all the vorts combined with the added potential energy from increases baroclinicity in late march and it's no surprise models are struggling with details. But I think this comes together ok. But that's not going to stop me worrying every run until I'm shoveling. ETA: if it did go down like the primary too long solutions we wouldn't get the lighter snow option we would get nothing because of the time of year. What would normally be 3-6" over 24 hours in winter isn't going to work in late march. Just something to keep in mind. All or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looking at the slp for the coastal on the GEFS and the cluster came west. H5 closes off through our area as well which didn’t happen at 0z. I know it’s time to be paying attention to the ops more in this range. I just think with so many moving pieces ensembles can give us some clues as to where things are headed. Wouldn’t be surprised if 12z is something special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Looking at the slp for the coastal on the GEFS and the cluster came west. Wouldn’t be surprised if 12z is something special. Gotta watch the onshore flow if the coastal is much further west though. The location of the High in Canada is further west than ideal, so locking in cold at low and mid levels could be an issue and result in a longer period of rain/sleet for I-95/ east with a closer in coastal low. Gotta root for whats best in your own yard at this point. Where I would like to see the coastal track is not the same as what PSU and Mappy want lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Gotta watch the onshore flow if the coastal is much further west though. The location of the High in Canada is further west than ideal, so locking in cold at low and mid levels could be an issue and result in a longer period of rain/sleet for I-95/ east with a closer in coastal low. Gotta root for whats best in your own yard at this point. Where I would like to see the coastal track is not the same as what PSU and Mappy want lol. I want at least 2" since I haven't gotten that in one event since early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, mappy said: I want at least 2" since I haven't gotten that in one event since early December. The way things look now I think you are way good for 2+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The way things look now I think you are way good for 2+. then everything else is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Saw this in the stream of twitter noise. Seems like an appropriately conservative map that matches most guidance. Is this guy a met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 If anything screws us it's going to be temps... which are partially dependent on rates. So if anything screws us it's going to be temps and track. Which are partially dependent on how quickly the LP deepens offshore. So if anything screws us it's going to be temps and track and synoptics. But apart from those aspects, we're looking great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Saw this in the stream of twitter noise. Seems like an appropriately conservative map that matches most guidance. Is this guy a met? From what I know, yes. He is really good to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Mount Holly a bit more bullish this morning. Latest Expected Snowfall map has 4" from Easton, MD northeastward into SE PA, much of NJ, with 5" along the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 6z 3k is great for just about everyone in this subforum. Nice front end thump. Followed by the coastal that just stripes our area. Obviously the front end will be better for elevated areas. But the run hammers everyone once the coastal gets cranking and the flow is favorable. I don' know that we could wish for a better outcome than what it is showing in March in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Cranky seems to be an anti-hype weather pragmatist. Seems good at pointing out all the parts that will contribute to upcoming storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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