87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I dont follow this dude, but he is hitting at least partly on my concern with how this unfolds. Just too many pieces of energy at h5. The lead wave in the upper levels seems to get stuck over WV, and all the trailing energy gets strung out in a deep, but broad trough. Eventually a coastal low is induced at the surface, but it will probably swing pretty far offshore as it is developing. This is some sort of a hybrid miller B, and I think the latest runs are revealing the "in between" dead zone. Hope I am wrong, but right now I am not thrilled with the look. Agreed. The system started to unravel as modeled once if came onshore the west coast with multiple vorts running loose. The key is how quickly those pieces can gel again as it moves east. The better model runs have that happening sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Another view of total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 yeah this is pretty legit. The GFS will fill in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Another view of total QPF Whoa! Wonder what caused that uptick in qpf? P.S. The UKIE maps are always dizzying to look at...just a funny angle, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I'm not going to make it up for the Euro, but RGEM ensemble mean is the best I've seen it all year. Below is qpf as snow and total qpf. Please keep in mind that for many of us ratios will likely be poor for the qpf labeled "snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro is off the Jersey shore at 72hrs well southwest of the GFS and CMC. North of the NAM by a little. Edit: Also going to Crush NE. 50/50 is phasing further west, and it's got a strong closed H5 south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yeah Euro looks great, hard to see, but looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 EC is more amped for sure with the second wave, but for us along and east of 95, in this scenario we may be waiting well after 00Z Wed before we'd finally flip to snow (check out that strong easterly 850 flow before the low gets off the coast). But, this would also spell more CCB snows after 12Z Wed as well. Ratios higher than 5-7 to 1 are tough to get after 14-15Z this time of year around here unless the rates are crazy. Would love for this to play out a good 6 hours earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Can someone post Euro snow maps? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 We just got named with a slow moving bomb Tuesday night and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: We just got named with a slow moving bomb Tuesday night and Wednesday Except there is about a 14" difference between snowfall and snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Except there is about a 14" difference between snowfall and snow depth Alot is sleet but if nam is off a degree...but 2 inches liquid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yeah was definately a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I kinda like the rain to sleet to snow aspect. I think it allows the snow to stick faster vs straight rain to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Verbatim, first wave looks like rain for DC proper with heavy snow perhaps 50 miles to the north and west. Second wave dumps heavy snow from Del Marva into southern New England with light to moderate snow for DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Nice DC snow hole. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6z nam is boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: 6z nam is boss. so which do you think is right the nam or the euro just curious?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Nice DC snow hole. Lol A lot of concrete in that hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, rcflyermd68 said: so which do you think is right the nam or the euro just curious?? Niether at this point. Still trying to narrow on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ji said: We just got named with a slow moving bomb Tuesday night and Wednesday Yeah NAM has a pretty nice CCB like the Euro. Hope the models are locking in on the coastal development/location, because thats the heavy snow producer for most. Much of what falls prior to that is rain/sleet/slop for many. Out your way you will do better with the lead stuff although still probably some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 makes sense. I'd be more worried about it being too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro verbatim for DC: Rain would begin early Tuesday morning with temperatures near 40. Surface and 850 hPa temperatures dropping through morning to mid 30s by noon with ~0.5" of rain before letting up in early afternoon. Light drizzle through the afternoon into the overnight hours with temperatures hovering in low to mid 30s. 850 temperatures plummet overnight with surface temperatures cooperating by morning. Flurries Wednesday morning changing to moderate snow by mid-morning before ending early evening ~0.4" falls with cooperative temperatures. Just one solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah NAM has a pretty nice CCB like the Euro. Hope the models are locking in on the coastal development/location, because thats the heavy snow producer for most. Much of what falls prior to that is rain/sleet/slop for many. Out your way you will do better with the lead stuff although still probably some sleet. 12K and 3K are a hairs breadth away from something special for the balt/dc corridor. At this point the 500's are lagging just a touch behind so we see the Del Marva get the brunt of the coastal. Just 3 hours quicker on the capture closer to the coast and the 95 corridor probably scores big (temps allowing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 12K and 3K are a hairs breadth away from something special for the balt/dc corridor. At this point the 500's are lagging just a touch behind so we see the Del Marva get the brunt of the coastal. Just 3 hours quicker on the capture closer to the coast and the 95 corridor probably scores big (temps allowing). Yep still lots of small details to be resolved with all the embedded shortwave energy. Latest NAM and the Euro really show the potential for a high impact event with the coastal for at least parts of the region though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6z nam is boss. So wait, SE VA went from ~20" to ~1" in one run? The model fluxes from run to run are dizzying. Bullseye and qpf maxes with this are like a game of darts while blindfolded, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yep still lots of small details to be resolved with all the embedded shortwave energy. Latest NAM and the Euro really show the potential for a high impact event with the coastal for at least parts of the region though. EPS has some utility still for the coastal as it falls outside of 48 hours. I like the improvements I have seen there over its 12z run. Actually like then very much to be honest. Made a strong move for a closer coastal that gets hung up off the coast as the 500's catch up. See a pretty decent increase in mean snow fall for the NW suburbs for that period of time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 21 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Euro verbatim for DC: Rain would begin early Tuesday morning with temperatures near 40. Surface and 850 hPa temperatures dropping through morning to mid 30s by noon with ~0.5" of rain before letting up in early afternoon. Light drizzle through the afternoon into the overnight hours with temperatures hovering in low to mid 30s. 850 temperatures plummet overnight with surface temperatures cooperating by morning. Flurries Wednesday morning changing to moderate snow by mid-morning before ending early evening ~0.4" falls with cooperative temperatures. Just one solution. Ultimately is going to be the coastal that makes or breaks this event, specifically where the ccb sets up. The main show looks to occur mostly during the daylight hours on Wed, so light to occasionally moderate snow wont get it done especially in the Urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 38 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 6z nam is boss. So wait, SE VA went from ~20" to ~1" in one run? The model fluxes from run to run are dizzying. Bullseye and qpf maxes with this are like a game of darts while blindfolded, geez. You sound surprised. You know the drill. Anything outside of 48 hours is for entertainment sake only. Especially the surface. I tell you what though, up to 48 hours I like the 500's. Would like to see the 500's a little quicker but I would take that look and roll the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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