AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 lol GFS should be a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 So, do we feel good, bad or indifferent after that gfs run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is a mixed back of meh and almost big.. With sleet in the mix.. And a lot of rain. Crazy and not sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Basically we can expect this Hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Says the guy who gets the most digital snow. Lol. Dude We have time. But I keep waiting for something to go boom with the ccb on wave 2 and it's just anemic and disjointed. A lot of light to moderate snow. No sn++ deform band. Im also frustrated this keeps morphing. Just when I was totally happy with how it looked with a healthy wave 1 then some bonus wave 2 suddenly wave 1 is weakening again. I know that doesn't matter for you but wave 1 was 60% of my snow so an anemic wave 1 cuts down on my potential a lot. Suddenly I don't see any 10"+ runs tonight. This still likely comes together. And I think models are still getting there but damnit can't that stick to one good solution. They keep morphing into other ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Cmc remains strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We have time. But I keep waiting for something to go boom with the ccb on wave 2 and it's just anemic and disjointed. A lot of light to moderate snow. No sn++ deform band. Im also frustrated this keeps morphing. Just when I was totally happy with how it looked with a healthy wave 1 then some bonus wave 2 suddenly wave 1 is weakening again. I know that doesn't matter for you but wave 1 was 60% of my snow so an anemic wave 1 cuts down on my potential a lot. Suddenly I don't see any 10"+ runs tonight. This still likely comes together. And I think models are still getting there but damnit can't that stick to one good solution. They keep morphing into other ideas. Nail on head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs mostly held from 18z. It was just noise with the differences. Track and progression was basically the same. Seeing 2 similar runs in a row like that can't be ignored but we're surely not off the ride yet. I'm sticking the where the rgem was going and calling it a night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs mostly held from 18z. It was just noise with the differences. Track and progression was basically the same. Seeing 2 similar runs in a row like that can't be ignored but we're surely not off the ride yet. I'm sticking the where the rgem was going and calling it a night Yeah, Im with you. Im trying to wait up for the CMC then I'm off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Every single model crushes us out here. I can't stay up for the Euro. But I hope it holds with it's wet 12z idea. Talk to yall in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs mostly held from 18z. It was just noise with the differences. Track and progression was basically the same. Seeing 2 similar runs in a row like that can't be ignored but we're surely not off the ride yet. I'm sticking the where the rgem was going and calling it a night It was hard to find differences with the coastal but maybe slightly closer off the Delmarva and a little better with the ull. Need it to develop quicker and a little west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 We all feel this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Every single model crushes us out here. I can't stay up for the Euro. But I hope it holds with it's wet 12z idea. Talk to yall in the morning. GFS has like 3-5" 10:1 in Winchester. I don't consider that crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 00z GGEM is a 5 to 9 inches region wide snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z GGEM is a 5 to 9 inches region wide snowfall Down 50% from 12z. Not a good sign. Psu has moved on to chewing toenails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs mostly held from 18z. It was just noise with the differences. Track and progression was basically the same. Seeing 2 similar runs in a row like that can't be ignored but we're surely not off the ride yet. I'm sticking the where the rgem was going and calling it a night GFS has a lot less snow up here than 18z. Just lighter with precip even though it trended north. CMC cut way back from it's epic 12z. Not happy with results because a 3" snowstorm isn't going to make my winter. I'm not a fan of small events after mid February. Go big or go spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS has like 3-5" 10:1 in Winchester. I don't consider that crushed. And its on its own by a mile. I will take what the 3k, rgem, cmc and Euro are pushing. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Upper levels on the cmc look better than the gfs. Not sure how the precip will translate but all those vorts look to redevelop quicker so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Once again we fail to see the op look anything like the nice ensemble maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Next weekend is the real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Next weekend is the real deal lol, dont worry guys, if this storm dissapoints, next weekends storm will definitely also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Once again we fail to see the op look anything like the nice ensemble maps Look on the bright side, 0z showed us anything is possible except a big snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Dont mean to deb but, I think the idea of things not coming together into a focused lp off the coast needs to be entertained. So many pieces to the puzzle and they keep changing. I feel for NWS. Imo, this still has the potential to put down 1-3 on grassy surfaces NW of 95....or, 6-12". 00z so far hasn't instilled much confidence on either scenario....A testament to it's complexity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Lol On the long long list of how to make a snowstorm fail we now get reason #117 "too many vorts and too much of a good thing " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 50 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: We all feel this I dont follow this dude, but he is hitting at least partly on my concern with how this unfolds. Just too many pieces of energy at h5. The lead wave in the upper levels seems to get stuck over WV, and all the trailing energy gets strung out in a deep, but broad trough. Eventually a coastal low is induced at the surface, but it will probably swing pretty far offshore as it is developing. This is some sort of a hybrid miller B, and I think the latest runs are revealing the "in between" dead zone. Hope I am wrong, but right now I am not thrilled with the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yes please 00z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 00z herp derp looks alot like the RGEM. this ones gonna be exciting! or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: 00z herp derp looks alot like the RGEM. this ones gonna be exciting! or not! Um, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Um, what? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018031900&fh=48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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