RichmondTarHeel Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Interesting that the 12k bullseyes Hampton roads area. 19” in the 757 in March? (I know, snow maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 It’s been too jumpy run to run to take it seriously. Trough went negative sooner. That’s the big takeaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM 63-72hrs. LOL. Remember wait until it's under 48 hrs before paying much attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That surface panel at 63 tho...lol Yea, the whole run is strange. I'll stick with the gfs/euro combo. Won't be up for the euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 So SE VA has 17 inches... uh huh, yes, that makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Ha. 20 inches in Norfolk? Whack ass NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM still flip flopping way too much... Can people ever seem to grasp the fact that the NAM should barely be trusted after 48 hours or even 24. There is a scavenger hunt for brains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Another goofy run. 6"+ precip in Virginia beach and nothing north of Wilmington. Just clips the jersey shore and eastern mass with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 what the heck is the NAM doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: So SE VA has 17 inches... uh huh, yes, that makes sense DT hired some Russians to hack the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: So SE VA has 17 inches... uh huh, yes, that makes sense It dug the trough deeper. Maybe too deep. Onto the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, the whole run is strange. I'll stick with the gfs/euro combo. Won't be up for the euro tonight. Up top at 500mb looked nice though at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, the whole run is strange. I'll stick with the gfs/euro combo. Won't be up for the euro tonight. It really is odd. I mean, it could happen, but it's a really weird run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That model clearly isnt showing 17-20 inches here, more like 4-6. but i find that extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Ji said: what the heck is the NAM doing? I thought we had seen it all but that run was one for the books. Of course we toss it but man did not see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, ldub23 said: That model clearly isnt showing 17-20 inches here, more like 4-6. but i find that extremely unlikely. Uh the surface says 6-12". Of course it's the NAM being the NAM in the most NAM way possible, but lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 In NAM we trust? Said nobody ever. Sticking with the varsity team GFS/Euro) at this point. That said, when is truly the NAM wheelhouse? After the event? Like a week later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Adding to the sleet discussion, in my experience with salt brine I've noticed that when sleet falls first then snow it seems the snow will act as a insulator and hold a better base. We typically still have to scrape then apply extra chemical. Trust me, sleet is our wildcard imo, we want it more so than rain at the onset or at any time for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 3k is much more sensible with the lead wave. It buries me so I am hugging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3k looks slightly more negative at h5 through hr 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 If the blocking is that strong you’d think we’d avoid sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It really is odd. I mean, it could happen, but it's a really weird run Well, early on both nams looked believable. This isn't a clean snowstorm so it's going to rain and mix. That part us practically a given. Beyond that I don't even think the nam knew what it was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Check out the 3km NAM sounding at hr 50. It shows heavy sleet, but I'd say snowflakes would be mixed in too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=nam3km&runtime=2018031900&fh=50&lat=38.78&lon=-76.98&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: NAM still flip flopping way too much... Can people ever seem to grasp the fact that the NAM should barely be trusted after 48 hours or even 24. There is a scavenger hunt for brains. Dude, come on. Please - take the many hints that have been shed your way. Read more, post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Check out the 3km NAM sounding at hr 50. It shows heavy sleet, but I'd say snowflakes would be mixed in too. What does it show in se va? Hopefully nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Well, early on both nams looked believable. This isn't a clean snowstorm so it's going to rain and mix. That part us practically a given. Beyond that I don't even think the nam knew what it was doing. So basically...the part of the storm that's more likely to be mostly snowy is wave 2...if it phases? Wonder if we'll have a better handle on that part tonight or tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I doubt it has happened more than once or twice in 100 years to get 2+ inches of snow in se va in march more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I think we can work with that closed h5 position at 60 on the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Boom! I realize its the NAM but I like that snow over MBY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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