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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I like how surface temps are colder than 850s lol like what. 

It's because the 850 primary is still going strong out in KY/wv until hr57-60 so the flow is out of the SE pumping warm air in at the 850 level.

 

Temps crash after once the transfer finishes and everything crashes.

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2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I like how surface temps are colder than 850s lol like what. 

What?......

That's extremely common. Have you never heard of warm air aloft? Warm layers? Are you new at this? If you have no idea what you're spewing out - let the folks like Bob Chill take the pbp and post less please. This is storm mode...

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Just now, TSSN+ said:

Not really for a storm like this. March you usually getting colder 850s and warm surface. I never seen a March ice storm before haha 

A ton of sleet has fallen which is probably cooling the surface..a ton in NoVA

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3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not really for a storm like this. March you usually getting colder 850s and warm surface. I never seen a March ice storm before haha 

We just had a sleet storm last March and March 93 was one of the worst sleet storms for many. They can happen at any month in winter. A storm like this is an easy way to get sleet. We don't have a pressing arctic high and temps are marginal to start. Tuck a strong low near mouth of bay and 850 temp advection can reach back to the Blue Ridge. This is a legit concern for this system. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

What?......

That's extremely common. Have you never heard of warm air aloft? Warm layers? Are you new at this? If you have no idea what you're spewing out - let the folks like Bob Chill take the pbp and post less please. This is storm mode...

It’s  the only model showing the opposite right now what I mean. Most models have cold enough 850 but warmer surface. 

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