stormtracker Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Here we are. Let's keep it high and tight from here on out. If you want more loose talk, head on over to banter. A good sign that you should stop and think about your postings is if you see them continually disappearing. Here's to getting a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I think it's going to rain a lot in Dover and I don't work on Sundays so hide this as you wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I’ll leave it, if you can give me a quick rundown on 12z. Wasn’t gonna wade through that other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I’ll leave it, if you can give me a quick rundown on 12z. Wasn’t gonna wade through that other thread cmc shifted a bit further southeast, but was on an island anyway. wave 1 looks fairly set (just need to see how strong/location) but temps are going to be an issue at the onset. wave 2 has trended further west over time, but still needs work. all in all, i think the trends have been good, but we need to see better consolidation of each system amongst the models. hopefully euro comes in cleaner. i'm interested to see if it stays a 2 part system, or tries to keep things more drawn out as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I believe the 12z UKMET from hours 60 to 72 look better for us, yes? With regards to teh 2nd wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 CMC looks like the good euro runs from 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: I believe the 12 UKMET from hours 60 to 72 look better for us, yes? With regards to teh 2nd wave? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: cmc shifted a bit further southeast, but was on an island anyway. wave 1 looks fairly set (just need to see how strong/location) but temps are going to be an issue at the onset. wave 2 has trended further west over time, but still needs work. all in all, i think the trends have been good, but we need to see better consolidation of each system amongst the models. hopefully euro comes in cleaner. i'm interested to see if it stays a 2 part system, or tries to keep things more drawn out as we get closer. Good rundown. Wave 1 is almost certainly dropping some snow througg most if not all the region and someone in the sweetspot may top warning criteria. That sweet spot is a moving target but it's an easy guess that the WV panhandle through upper moco and along i70 is favored. Wave 2's ressurection is very impressive. These little ticks and tocks of bringing it back are meaningful. It's probably safe to say that wave 2 does in fact produce something after being completely off the table 2-3 days ago. Wave 2 has the most upside but getting a real handle on it is still 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I believe the 12 UKMET from hours 60 to 72 look better for us, yes? With regards to teh 2nd wave? Yes! U.K. is a hit with wave 2 for all of us. Its not massive. But it's a huge improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 UK runs some of wave 1 off but it keeps most of the energy concentrated in a primary that stalls to our west and just waits for the upper levels to catch up. One key is not having the second vort split and dig one down into the south. The runs that do that and develop a low in SC suck for us. The runs that hold back a stronger primary that helps pull the next wave in and focus development at the mid Atlantic are good. The ukmet isn't even impressive at the surface. My guess is the h5 pass gets it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Don’t mean to be a bother, but how’s the ukie for wave 1? I never remember where to get those maps. edit: nvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes! U.K. is a hit with wave 2 for all of us. Its not massive. But it's a huge improvement. Okay for those slightly above the mason Dixon line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Gefs looks very good. Still divided on wave 2 impact but very good for wave 1. I think much of our region is about to be pretty happy one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: ... Wow. The members are rolling out now...will be interesting to see the spread amongst the individual ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Ukie total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The UK is pretty warm at the surface for wave 1. Wave 2 looks really good though temp wise. 850's are good through NOVA though. DC loses the upper levels for a bit. But they look good with the second wave for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs looks very good. Still divided on wave 2 impact but very good for wave 1. I think much of our region is about to be pretty happy one way or another. I think we're starting to gel into a decent storm (total two wave) that will double our snow for the year. If we can get the Euro in on this, I'll be officially all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Okay for those slightly above the mason Dixon line? No. The cutoff is SHARP. Over 1.2 qpf D.C. About .6 for me. Goes down to nothing by 20 miles north of the PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 most notable changes on the gefs looks like a slight shift west with the comma head, expanded precip max and slight shift west with the closed low off the delmarva. it's close to being a full on, region wide hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Ukie total precip Good QPF from the Ukie, nearing 1.2". Based on the Meteogram up through 72 hours, the surface up through 850 mb hovers near or a little above freezing in DC on Tuesday, which accounts for about half of that qpf. But it appears the column cools enough by Tuesday evening and into Wednesday for the remaining projected QPF to be all snow (still could be mostly snow on Tuesday, but Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the most promising period if the secondary low behaves as the Ukie suggests). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs looks very good. Still divided on wave 2 impact but very good for wave 1. I think much of our region is about to be pretty happy one way or another. Amazing run for your area. It was sideways up here. 6z was 14 hits and 7 misses. 12z is 12 hits and 9 misses but the hits are bigger hits. It's a right cutoff up here in a lot of the guidance. How confident are you on that last 24 hour push north? I trust you more with that since your location isn't as reliant on it. I'm feeling better then I was last night. Euro will have a lot to say though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 UKIE is drool-worthy out here with the QPF. Such an event hasn't happened in a quite a while. Interestingly, the GEFS members seem to depict the Wave 2 coastal idea; those members which produce big totals have a noticeable shift east with the jackpot zones. It's apparent that wave 2 is not going to be as kind to us westerners. No surprises there. I'm completely rooting for the strongest wave 1 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I think at this point we just need the low to close off for wave 2 as close to the coast as possible, and further southwest. That may help enhance that western precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 33 minutes ago, mappy said: Ukie total precip Ooh...sharp cutoff...If only we can push that a little further north into Baltimore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Might not be the best place to ask, but seeing as the term is being floated a lot... and we have some time to kill before the Euro... could anyone give an “explain it like I’m 5” on confluence? I think there’s lots of us in here who see the term but don’t really know what that looks like/does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 When do you guys think we see watches start going out? I guess the real question is..is there agreement on onset time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, knglover said: When do you guys think we see watches start going out? I guess the real question is..is there agreement on onset time? When they feel like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Might not be the best place to ask, but seeing as the term is being floated a lot... and we have some time to kill before the Euro... but could anyone give an “explain it like I’m 5” on confluence? I think there’s lots of us in here who see the term but don’t really know what that looks like/does. This could help you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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