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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:07 AM, yoda said:
If only... over a foot of snow with probably another 2 to 3 hours of snow to go if we were to accept the 00z HRDPS 
Is the HRDPS the best model out there for 00Z?

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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:13 AM, Bob Chill said:
For the record, hdrps  is a legit meso model. It was tested in beta and feedback from Mets was very positive so it was made operational. It's not some random product. It's a high res version of the rgem and has proven to have real value as a meso. I won't blindly say its right but seeing that solution combined with what ive been thinking does makes sense and fits. Could easily be over done with precip but it's hard to ignore how pretty the banded structure is. 
I would accept 1/2 the QPF it shows and run with it. Lock it up, throw the key away, etc.

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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:17 AM, yoda said:
See Bob Chill post right above your post 
I was being sarcastic as I figured it was not to be taken seriously. Like Bob's post though. Hopefully it is on to something.

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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:07 AM, Jebman said:
This has just been a downright INCREDIBLE winter for the Delmarva region! Seems they do just fine in neutral ENSO winters.
Are you on crack? This winter has been atrocious!

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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:21 AM, SlamSlam said:

I was being sarcastic as I figured it was not to be taken seriously. Like Bob's post though. Hopefully it is on to something.

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We're 12-24 hours away from feeling pretty good how things break with the ull pass. Banded structure and upper level support are inherently hard to nail down with location until close in. Trends have no red flags except the nams but I'd much prefer those 2 being outliers than anything else. They can (and probably will) change on a dime next run...and the run after...and....heh

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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:23 AM, SlamSlam said:
Are you on crack? This winter has been atrocious!

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Assume you were bring sarcastic and I initially failed to catch it because just too snow-starven.

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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:27 AM, SlamSlam said:

Assume you were bring sarcastic and I initially failed to catch it because just too snow-starven.

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No he was being serious, and he’s right. Most of Delmarva has had a great winter. Salisbury has 16.4” so far this winter. Average is 9.9”. 

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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:35 AM, SlamSlam said:

Can you post it? Is it somewhere above?

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http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en&hh=000

I'm no expert at reading these, but here's the site!

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  On 3/20/2018 at 5:38 AM, snowdude said:
No he was being serious, and he’s right. Most of Delmarva has had a great winter. Salisbury has 16.4” so far this winter. Average is 9.9”. 
Fair enough. That is a number I somehow hope the people to the West of you can achieve.

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