WVclimo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:24 AM, Eskimo Joe said: Has to be at least a 50% (60%?) confidence level. Expand Based on the map CLskinsfan posted, the probability of reaching 4" meets that threshold in the western counties. Doesn't mean the required 5" criteria is met though. If we are forecasting the forecasters, I suspect LWX hoists watches in the a.m. for at least their 8 WV counties, the 5 westernmost counties in Virginia, and western Allegany in MD. They may also cover the high ridges of the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:46 AM, supernovasky said: That map looks about right to me. I still think we get more than that in my neck of the woods but it seems about where I'd place the forecast myself. Expand They are almost always too conservative and then increase totals later. So this is fairly positive to me. If the 2nd wave starts banding, totals will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:44 AM, poolz1 said: Can anyone tell me the difference between the CMC RDPs and GDPS on meteocentre ? Is one the extended version of the other? Expand GDPS = GGEM RDPS = RGEM GEPS = GGEM ensemble REPS = RGEM ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:43 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Updated lwx map Expand Da fuq is that tiny little screw zone over MBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:49 AM, snowmagnet said: They are almost always too conservative and then increase totals later. So this is fairly positive to me. If the 2nd wave starts banding, totals will go up. Expand WHEN the 2nd wave starts banding, MoCo and HoCo will meet warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:50 AM, cae said: GDPS = GGEM RDPS = RGEM GEPS = GGEM ensemble REPS = RGEM ensemble Expand Perfect....thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:52 AM, Jebman said: WHEN the 2nd wave starts banding, MoCo and HoCo will meet warning criteria. Expand Hopefully more counties than that will meet the warning criteria....we are in for a shellacking, right?? Also, they reduce the amounts needing for warning criteria if it is to occur during rush hour. At least they used to... when it used to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Keep in mind the 12 and 24 hour time intervals for warning: 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:56 AM, snowmagnet said: Hopefully more counties than that will meet the warning criteria....we are in for a shellacking, right?? Also, they reduce the amounts needing for warning criteria if it is to occur during rush hour. At least they used to... when it used to snow here. Expand Do they? I only thought they did that for advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:59 AM, Cobalt said: Do they? I only thought they did that for advisories. Expand You are correct. Only for WWA do they have rush hour rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:59 AM, Cobalt said: Do they? I only thought they did that for advisories. Expand You are right. I thought I remembered them changing the numbers for WSW before due to rush hour, but I just looked it up and apparently it is only for advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 While we're waiting.. RPM anyone? (I know I know it sucks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 They bumped the probabilities for 8 inches or more as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Do the nws prediction maps account for melting and/or non stickage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:16 AM, Plow'n said: Do the nws prediction maps account for melting and/or non stickage? Expand Yes. Unlike model snowmaps, the NWS maps have human forecaster input. They often are conservative farther out in time from the event start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:07 AM, clskinsfan said: They bumped the probabilities for 8 inches or more as well: Expand wow. 41% chance of at least 8 inches. That's pretty aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:51 AM, WxUSAF said: Da fuq is that tiny little screw zone over MBY? Expand That would be the rare columbia undeathband phenomenon that happens once every 100 years. Sorry dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 DT has his first call out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 DT's map looks pretty good. I'm thinking about the same thing. If wave 2 gets cranking then there's upside but as is I like the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Maybe not the HECS we were hunting last week, but 6 - 10 would be quite a storm, especially for late March. Hell, that would be as much March snow I've seen since the Superstorm. Maybe it is historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:38 AM, Bob Chill said: DT's map looks pretty good. I'm thinking about the same thing. If wave 2 gets cranking then there's upside but as is I like the map. Expand It's reasonable. I think for you, upside has got to be north of 8". If we make 4 here I'm happy. I'm 100% serious. I'm being realistic..the Euro HECS was never going to happen. If we can score 4" in accumulating snow during daylight in mid March, I've got nothing to complain about with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 12:59 AM, Cobalt said: Do they? I only thought they did that for advisories. Expand That is only for advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:48 AM, EastCoast NPZ said: Maybe not the HECS we were hunting last week, but 6 - 10 would be quite a storm, especially for late March. Hell, that would be as much March snow I've seen since the Superstorm. Maybe it is historic. Expand 6-10 would be a nice storm, especially after this awful winter, but not anything what was being talked about just days ago. We just had a similar storm a few years ago in late March, so hardly unprecedented, but pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 While we wait for the real models, SREF mean snowfall from the most recent run: DCA- 3.0" IAD- 3.6" BWI- 2.5" FDK- 3.7" HGR- 6.3" MRB- 6.8" OKV- 5.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:53 AM, stormtracker said: It's reasonable. I think for you, upside has got to be north of 8". If we make 4 here I'm happy. I'm 100% serious. I'm being realistic..the Euro HECS was never going to happen. If we can score 4" in accumulating snow during daylight in mid March, I've got nothing to complain about with this storm. Expand Averaging all guidance puts me around 1.25" qpf. So let's say I hit upside of 1.5"...that would mean 5:1 average to hit over 7". I don't think that's likely at all because I'm almost definitely getting rain for a while. If 1" qpf fell as all snow I still don't think 8:1 is possible with all the variables in play. 6" is probably top end for me. My brain says 3-6" for my hood and probably 2-4" through dc with the hills better than the riverbanks. If wave 2 wraps up then we all might have our minds blown. Not much evidence of that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:56 AM, osfan24 said: 6-10 would be a nice storm, especially after this awful winter, but not anything what was being talked about just days ago. We just had a similar storm a few years ago in late March, so hardly unprecedented, but pretty rare. Expand If anything, March has been a snowy month in the past half decade. Every winter, 2013, 2014, 2015, even 2016, 2017, an this year have had at least 1 or 2 potential threats to track or that materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Normally if the totals are going to be high the SREFS are through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:36 AM, WVclimo said: DT has his first call out. Expand Seems very realistic. We got 2.5 inches in newport news from the last snow and even though local forecasters are saying this will be similar i doubt any accumulating snow makes it se of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:36 AM, WVclimo said: DT has his first call out. Expand I like this but I think the low numbers in the range are the most realistic just my take onto the new model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Man. The NAM is juicy at 27. Big hit incoming this run for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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