audioguy3107 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Check out this really nice satellite image from SPC, you can clearly see the orientation of the warm front, the developing low pressure and a sweet gravity wave over the western Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 26 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said: Check out this really nice satellite image from SPC, you can clearly see the orientation of the warm front, the developing low pressure and a sweet gravity wave over the western Gulf of Mexico. Is that a triple point developing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 New Day-1 is out. MDT over north AL, and the 10% hatched TOR risk is wrapped around the south of the wedge and now includes ATL proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 30 minutes ago, a5ehren said: New Day-1 is out. MDT over north AL, and the 10% hatched TOR risk is wrapped around the south of the wedge and now includes ATL proper. Yep, I’m in the moderate risk now and in the hatched area. Slightly skeptical for West GA but on guard for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitzgunner Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 HRRR 16z really ramps the STP values for central/north Alabama. 1km storm relative helicity is 300-400 while 3km is 400-500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That cell SW of Muscle Shoals looks to be on track to be the first tornadic cell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitzgunner Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 BMX is reporting 3000 cape in Birmingham from weather balloon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This cell still trying to be first with a tornado....struggling to keep a tight rotation going though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That cell north of BMX is looking pretty hook-y. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: This cell still trying to be first with a tornado....struggling to keep a tight rotation going though.... That cell was elevated earlier, and since it appears like it's still north of the warm front, I think it still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: That cell was elevated earlier, and since it appears like it's still north of the warm front, I think it still is. Tor warning on it just issued Tornado Warning Tornado Warning ALC033-191915- /O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0001.180319T1838Z-180319T1915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Huntsville AL 138 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018 The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Colbert County in northwestern Alabama... * Until 215 PM CDT * At 138 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Littleville, or near Tuscumbia, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Leighton around 145 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Colbert Heights, Northwest Alabama Regional Airport, Whiteoak and Ford City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3482 8749 3480 8743 3478 8743 3476 8742 3474 8743 3471 8742 3470 8745 3465 8745 3465 8748 3462 8750 3457 8773 3469 8777 TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 245DEG 46KT 3465 8764 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.00IN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, downeastnc said: Tor warning on it just issued Tornado Warning Tornado Warning ALC033-191915- /O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0001.180319T1838Z-180319T1915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Huntsville AL 138 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018 The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Colbert County in northwestern Alabama... * Until 215 PM CDT * At 138 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Littleville, or near Tuscumbia, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Leighton around 145 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Colbert Heights, Northwest Alabama Regional Airport, Whiteoak and Ford City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3482 8749 3480 8743 3478 8743 3476 8742 3474 8743 3471 8742 3470 8745 3465 8745 3465 8748 3462 8750 3457 8773 3469 8777 TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 245DEG 46KT 3465 8764 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.00IN $$ Apparently it's not elevated lol. Must be straddling the WF then. I thought it was well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Still messy but given the environment it could produce a large long track tornado at any time now....most Hi Res runs had a long track super tracking east just along or south of the TN/AL border this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Areas affected...Northeast MS...Northern AL...Southern TN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 191906Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued by 21z across portions of the Mid-South. A few strong tornadoes are possible in addition to large hail. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of mid-level drying/cooling is progressing across the MS Delta region at roughly 35kt. Over the next few hours lapse rates should adjust across western TN/northeast MS and deep convection is expected to expand in response to this feature. Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for strong supercell development as boundary-layer moisture is advancing into northern MS/AL with mid 60s surface dew points now evident at TUP into Winston county AL. Early-day thunderstorm cluster that spread across northern MS is now into northern AL and this convection may impede deeper moisture surge into the Middle TN region. However, a well-defined and increasingly buoyant east-west boundary draped across northern MS/AL should provide a focus for potentially tornadic supercells. Shear profiles are becoming quite strong across this region and it appears discrete storms will evolve over the next few hours in response to approaching short-wave trough. Environmental parameters appear supportive of potentially long-track tornadoes and this will be addressed within the next few hours with a tornado watch. ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 hours ago, LithiaWx said: Yep, I’m in the moderate risk now and in the hatched area. Slightly skeptical for West GA but on guard for sure. I would not underestimate these type of storm systems. This is lining up to be a situation where we have to be on alert especially in West Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 It is really starting to clear out on GOES-16 - Especially along the MS/AL border - clearing even stretching into TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig82 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like some cells are forming near Oxford/Batesville, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That's a really shallow superadiabatic layer in the Birmingham sounding. The MLCAPE is < 1000 j/kg as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 PDS Tornado Watch coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Apparently a PDS Watch is inbound? Twitter blowing up about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Quote SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Northeast Mississippi Southern Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Several severe storms will develop along a cold front through this evening producing strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Tupelo MS to 45 miles northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Grams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Another Tornado Watch just issued, for areas north of the PDS watch in Tennessee Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 14 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A few severe storms should develop east through the evening with a risk for large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south of Clarksville TN to 70 miles east of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: DANG! That's going over Florence, Al. Their luck instability wasn't very high at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Muscle Shoals/Tuscumbia/Sheffield/Florence area has another one knocking on the door now. It's been producing funnel clouds since first TOR-warned a couple of counties ago in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Supercell just north of Tupelo, MS and supercell just west of Shannon, MS appear to be the next ones that'll go. Both are starting to develop "that look" on reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Tornado Debris Sig is showing up on northern rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 hours ago, downeastnc said: WOW! thanks for posting this! @downeastnc, you can watch the "spin" counterclock wise on that T-Storm... In the Mid-levels.. Fascinating! While the lower level wind|(s|) are going... stationary to north? Our Area looks to be Moderately "high" tomorrow for severe WX.. With "Flurries!" on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Franklin County in northwestern Alabama... Southwestern Lawrence County in northwestern Alabama... * Until 600 PM CDT * At 519 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Red Bay, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Russellville, Red Bay, Phil Campbell, Belgreen, Vina, Hodges, Mt Hope, Cedar Creek Reservoir, Atwood and Tharptown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Fairly tight rain-wrapped couplet just west of Russellville on the northern storm. Things *should* start popping off here in the next hour or so, as these supercells beginning to move into an area where surface winds are backed. Counting on that storm modes can stay at least semi-discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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