MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 21 minutes ago, snow1 said: And now we have lost the nam As a side note... We should not be relying on snowfall maps (never tbh, but) for this scenario. What falls and what accumulates will be two very different scenarios. Everything will accumulate with the cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Lol you guys are gonna go crazy with the run to run shifts with wave 1. You have a shortwave getting shredded as it goes from west to east. With the confluence around there is going to be sharp cutoff. Its gonna take awhile before we know more or less where that cutoff is going to be. As SnowGoose mentioned before, upper end snowfall potential is very limited. The 12Z Euro Ensembles and 18Z Nam show the trailing energy has some good potential. Even the 12Z globals trended to having a better wave #2. Here is the 18Z Nam with wave 2 which sorta looks like the original idea the globals had for this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: could all end up being mostly a model fantasy in the end - who knows Or the 2nd wave hits us Complex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Anyone relying on the NAM>>> Please consider that the 12Z on the Cobb Snow Method is giving 25" of Snow, 17:1 Ratio and at one point has 4" in one hour. BTW: the storm is still carrying on at hour 84--and all this happens in 12 hours+. This is not a fantasy, it is a monster from another time and dimension. None of this could be right even on Feb. 01. Watch for a crash dive shortly. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=klga This method yielded nothing on the previous events and was consistent. Do not know what is upsetting it now. LOL> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Now the models are coming in close to a consensus. Euro, GFS GGEM and now NAM are now in the general area of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Now the models are coming in close to a consensus. Euro, GFS GGEM and now NAM are now in the general area of each other. Tonight's 00z runs will be even more telling with 60 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Now the models are coming in close to a consensus. Euro, GFS GGEM and now NAM are now in the general area of each other. Consensus at 60 hr could also mean that they are all wrong. I get nervous with consensus when it's outside of 48 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, Enigma said: Consensus at 60 hr could also mean that they are all wrong. I get nervous with consensus when it's outside of 48 hr. Yes. Just because they are consolidating does not mean the model suite will not move north in tandem. GEFS as north as was the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Forgot to throw in thr Ukmet. That is a remarkable agreement for this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I would not want to be in JP right now. This is not 2010 type confluence. Climo says Phl to NYC JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 37 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Or the 2nd wave hits us Complex Bernie Rayno thinks it's the only significant one, but that it'll hit New England again. But that was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Enigma said: I would not want to be in JP right now. This is not 2010 type confluence. Climo says Phl to NYC JP. Definitely not 2010 type confluence, but the shortwave itself is not too impressive itself. I do believe we will see the consensus adjust a bit north, but how much is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 18Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Right on cue the 18Z GFS does not show much snow for anyone for wave 1 even the DC area. Seems to be focusing more on wave 2 which the Euro ensembles hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, sferic said: 18Z GFS? 1st wave basically has no snow for anyone. Waiting on 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 GFS trended worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS trended worse. Its Wave 2 or bust at this point. Wave 1 is not gonna do it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, Ace said: Its Wave 2 or bust at this point. Wave 1 is not gonna do it for us. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 U know what's funny, wave 2 looks like a weaker version of the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Wave 2 pulled out to sea. Gonna wait till tomorrow to pull the plug but not looking good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 That 2nd system's got a good shot - whisk that first out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 these solutions are going to keep changing until the models decide what to do with wave 2 - which is 4 + days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 focusing and hoping on the wrong wave imo....id prefer a sheared first wave, with the follow up 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS trended worse. every aspect of the bigger solution trended more favorable on the GFS and icon.... look at the ridge/heights/confluence/ and trough as well as second wave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Like it has been all season this will be another short lead time before we start seeing the models resolve all the players involved correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ace said: Its Wave 2 or bust at this point. Wave 1 is not gonna do it for us. You front know that yet Complex situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wave 2 pulled out to sea. Gonna wait till tomorrow to pull the plug but not looking good at all. Give it to Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 I still like wave one fwiw. But I wish it didn't exist bc wave 2 would probably have a better chance without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Everything will accumulate with the cold temps Light rates especially in the urban areas will have a hard time if this comes during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Light rates especially in the urban areas will have a hard time if this comes during the day. Depends on temps but I agree we need moderate rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 GEFS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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