sferic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: I believe long island is going to get a very strong hit. Western Nassau too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, sferic said: Western Nassau too? All of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: What's the explanation? Poor snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Really heavy snow in Midtown. Should make its way up here soon then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 HEAVy snow at Central Park 4 inches easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Finally snowing moderately after hours of sleet and no precipitation. Eyeballing 3in. Think too many throwing in the towel for the storm when the worst was modeled between now and overnight. Radar does look to be improving off shore and hopefully that will push through with better rates. Still believe 10in or so possible in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I live on the south shore of Long Island and haven't had a drop of rain today. Hmmmm i'm in oside and rained here in the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: What's the explanation? Many areas are just not getting good lift into the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Poor snow growth. Yeah I got that but what causes that? High level warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 Nzucker made a good point too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This gives you a good idea of the cloud heights at different levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Dan76 said: Hmmmm i'm in oside and rained here in the am I guess I'm lucky lol. I had a sleet fest, followed by some moderate to heavy snow, followed by intermittent light snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Snow growth/rates around my area have improved markedly over the last half hour and that's without any strong banding. Hopefully it improves for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Snow growth/rates around my area have improved markedly over the last half hour and that's without any strong banding. Hopefully it improves for everyone. Good to hear. Flakes are big but too sparse for their radar presentation. With the way the moisture is oriented, I'm thinking that better lift should come up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nianticct Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 snowing at a good clip in se ct good flake size and snow is now sticking to everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah I got that but what causes that? High level warmth? Kind of. Essentially what happens is that the best omega is below the snow growth region. In other words, there is shallow lift. When there is shallow lift, the snow tends to form at lower ratios and therefore it is less dense, thus lower accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Back to snow - I promise you it was rain - all be it very light. The flakes are different in size so maybe some better action incoming into the Stamford area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, cut said: Back to snow - I promise you it was rain - all be it very light. The flakes are different in size so maybe some better action incoming into the Stamford area. I believe you. I wasn't doubting you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: This gives you a good idea of the cloud heights at different levels This is a great image for showing what I was saying in regards to shallow lift vs higher vertical velocities leading to better snow growth. Ideally you want cloud tops below -15C to for a significant chance of optimal snow growth. Where the higher cloud tops, they are thus cooler and also have better vertical velocities. In addittion to promoting higher intensities, this also gives a better chance for snow growth as the particles are much more likely to reach the optimal omega region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Not to be Mister Negative, but that banding headed for LI looks to be weakening a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 5:04 PM, NJwx85 said: I put a lot of thought into this, final call Inside the pink line - 1-3" Inside the light blue line - 2-5" Inside the dark blue line - 4-8" Inside the green line - 5-10" Inside the red line - 6-12" Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts. I just saw this and I just had to comment my apologies for being a week late but I've been busy. This was the single worst forecast for the coast in this history of this board and that's saying something I have to imagine that it's just a complete lack of understanding on how the coast snows/ works, but it's a mistake that you make year after year. You seem to think that it doesn't snow heavily in Monmouth County and across Long Island and it's not just this storm you do it with every storm. You seem to be stuck with the idea that no matter what the event is higher totals don't exist on the coastal plain. Monmouth County received 12 to 14 inches and parts of Long Island got 12 to 20 with this and those totals were pretty well modeled. There wasn't any guidance that called for 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches those areas that you outline. You really to figure out what your reoccurring error is when forecasting snow for the coastal plain or maybe next year just don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 46 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I just saw this and I just had to comment my apologies for being a week late but I've been busy. This was the single worst forecast for the coast in this history of this board and that's saying something I have to imagine that it's just a complete lack of understanding on how the coast snows/ works, but it's a mistake that you make year after year. You seem to think that it doesn't snow heavily in Monmouth County and across Long Island and it's not just this storm you do it with every storm. You seem to be stuck with the idea that no matter what the event is higher totals don't exist on the coastal plain. Monmouth County received 12 to 14 inches and parts of Long Island got 12 to 20 with this and those totals were pretty well modeled. There wasn't any guidance that called for 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches those areas that you outline. You really to figure out what your reoccurring error is when forecasting snow for the coastal plain or maybe next year just don't bother. Too much emphasis on climo. Yes inland historically does better over the course of a season, but you can't apply that to every single storm. Also, the coast has done incredibly well over the past 15-18 years compared to long term climo. Locally here, we have been above normal in the snowfall department 16 of 18 years and not just a few inches above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I just saw this and I just had to comment my apologies for being a week late but I've been busy. This was the single worst forecast for the coast in this history of this board and that's saying something I have to imagine that it's just a complete lack of understanding on how the coast snows/ works, but it's a mistake that you make year after year. You seem to think that it doesn't snow heavily in Monmouth County and across Long Island and it's not just this storm you do it with every storm. You seem to be stuck with the idea that no matter what the event is higher totals don't exist on the coastal plain. Monmouth County received 12 to 14 inches and parts of Long Island got 12 to 20 with this and those totals were pretty well modeled. There wasn't any guidance that called for 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches those areas that you outline. You really to figure out what your reoccurring error is when forecasting snow for the coastal plain or maybe next year just don't bother. I made that call around 24 hours prior to the start of the storm and then all the guidance shifted Southeast. I knew that my forecast was in serious trouble and it was acknowledged 3 or 4 times by me if you had been paying attention. Rather than redrawing a new forecast, I let it be. I know you and some others feel I have some bias against the coast, I do not. I tell it like it is and I put forth a lot of effort into making those forecasts. With the prior three storms I had some minor issues, but for the most part I’ve nailed the axis of heaviest snowfall. Everyone busts from time to time and I don’t appreciate you coming on here a week later no less, and trying to single me out as some biased hack. Shame on you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Too much emphasis on climo. Yes inland historically does better over the course of a season, but you can't apply that to every single storm. Also, the coast has done incredibly well over the past 15-18 years compared to long term climo. Locally here, we have been above normal in the snowfall department 16 of 18 years and not just a few inches above normal. Many, many mets with advanced degrees and with much more experience than I have, busted badly with the last storm if you look at 24 hours out. Maybe if the site wasn’t constantly crashing I could have posted a revised forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 6 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I made that call around 24 hours prior to the start of the storm and then all the guidance shifted Southeast. I knew that my forecast was in serious trouble and it was acknowledged 3 or 4 times by me if you had been paying attention. Rather than redrawing a new forecast, I let it be. I know you and some others feel I have some bias against the coast, I do not. I tell it like it is and I put forth a lot of effort into making those forecasts. With the prior three storms I had some minor issues, but for the most part I’ve nailed the axis of heaviest snowfall. Everyone busts from time to time and I don’t appreciate you coming on here a week later no less, and trying to single me out as some biased hack. Shame on you sir. I think you have a natural bias and you let it show in your forecasting. We all bust man and the post isn't about a bad call , its more about a predetermined bad background idea that you seem to carry with you from storm to storm for the coast. There was nothing that said 1.5 LE with - 4 at 850 and 22 degree DPs equated to 1 to 3 inches of snow along the coast. Your reasoning conflicted with the entire set up. I don't think you know how Monmouth County and the N shore of LI act during east coast cycolgenesis. It's not the error man it's the bias and it's why you argue so much in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 4 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I think you have a natural bias and you let it show in your forecasting. We all bust man and the post isn't about a bad call , its more about a predetermined bad background idea that you seem to carry with you from storm to storm for the coast. There was nothing that said 1.5 LE with - 4 at 850 and 22 degree DPs equated to 1 to 3 inches of snow along the coast. Your reasoning conflicted with the entire set up. I don't think you know how Monmouth County and the N shore of LI act during east coast cycolgenesis. It's not the error man it's the bias and it's why you argue so much in here. The forecast I put out was unbiased. And the storm shifted Southeast during the last few hours. I argue with people on here because many live in fantasy land and post contradictory, false information which others grab onto and then it spreads like wild fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 Aargh. PS 23 winters at this location and the average seasonal snowfall over that period is 40.5". FWIW, I've gotten complaints that I under-measure. I don't, but FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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