snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah are you accumulating up there at all? The radar looks better than some of the models are indicating up by you FWIW. Not one flake lol.. Ive been under heavy echoes all morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Mt. Holly increased totals for most of NJ. 16" now forecasted at KMMU https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter why would they do this...Im not getting 15 inches...ive had about an 1.25 inches on grass and nothing on pavement and light rates throughout, sure it will accumulate eventually but I am not buying that amount at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: That seems low 6-10" I think is a good range for you guys in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Mt. Holly increased totals for most of NJ. 16" now forecasted at KMMU https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter why would they do this...Im not getting 15 inches...ive had about an 1.25 inches on grass and nothing on pavement and light rates throughout, sure it will accumulate eventually but I am not buying that amount at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm at work in kearney it's snowing hard about 3" already. wife sent me pictures from home not even sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The 12z GFS has more snow than the RGEM does. That's a great sign, since the GFS is almost always underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: why would they do this...Im not getting 15 inches...ive had about an 1.25 inches on grass and nothing on pavement and light rates throughout, sure it will accumulate eventually but I am not buying that amount at all Cannot believe I am actually agreeing with the warlock, but I agree. I don't expect anything heavy until later, but 15" is a stretch. I have been going with a prediction of 7" since last night. I hope the NWS proves me very wrong. Come on heavy rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, sferic said: LOL..patience I would much rather be where you are for this event than where I am 10 miles north of 84 experiencing a virga fest. You are guaranteed to precipitate. Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, chrisNJ said: Cannot believe I am actually agreeing with the warlock, but I agree. I don't expect anything heavy until later, but 15" is a stretch. I have been going with a prediction of 7" since last night. I hope the NWS proves me very wrong. Come on heavy rates! Unless they are thinking a better snow ratio. The stuff falling right now is pretty dry, not those huge, wet flakes some of you are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2", still coming down hard. Already have seen rates near 1"/hr. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 In Sea Bright and I'm underwhelmed. Lol. It's snowing and sleeting lightly but watching the Shrewsbury river for any signs of flooding. Will be live at noon then a big lunch at bubbakoos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, chrisNJ said: Cannot believe I am actually agreeing with the warlock, but I agree. I don't expect anything heavy until later, but 15" is a stretch. I have been going with a prediction of 7" since last night. I hope the NWS proves me very wrong. Come on heavy rates! reasonable is 6-12 for central jersey with a wording there could be some lollipop higher amounts in bands.....they have been all over 12-18 since that euro run yesterday of course the euro slashed that in half and they go and up the amounts this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, chrisNJ said: Cannot believe I am actually agreeing with the warlock, but I agree. I don't expect anything heavy until later, but 15" is a stretch. I have been going with a prediction of 7" since last night. I hope the NWS proves me very wrong. Come on heavy rates! Since I have less than an inch over several hours, I too don't see where these big numbers are going to come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, snywx said: Not one flake lol.. Ive been under heavy echoes all morning It took about a good 2 hours under 30dbz echos before it started actually qualifying as light snow here. KSWF is still reporting a dew point of 16, which I think is actually quite a bit higher than it was a few hours ago. KCDW went from 34 degrees and overcast with a dew point of 16 around 9:30 to 29 degrees with moderate snow and dew point of 21 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: In Sea Bright and I'm underwhelmed. Lol. It's snowing and sleeting lightly but watching the Shrewsbury river for any signs of flooding. Will be live at noon then a big lunch at bubbakoos Oh, yeah I forgot about that. At Barnegat Inlet, they are saying a 3 foot surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: In Sea Bright and I'm underwhelmed. Lol. It's snowing and sleeting lightly but watching the Shrewsbury river for any signs of flooding. Will be live at noon then a big lunch at bubbakoos You should have chased up around New Brunswick. I think that area might have the highest totals in NJ by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 When is the brunt of the storm with the heavy snow supposed to hit NYC.? It has only been snowing lightly for the last 45 minutes and I want to take the express bus from Bayside Queens into Manhattan and leave the city around 5PM but don't want to have a hard time getting home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It took about a good 2 hours under 30dbz echos before it started actually qualifying as light snow here. KSWF is still reporting a dew point of 16, which I think is actually quite a bit higher than it was a few hours ago. KCDW went from 34 degrees and overcast with a dew point of 16 around 9:30 to 29 degrees with moderate snow and dew point of 21 degrees. With Weather Underground's radar I just click hide clutter. Seems almost spot-on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: It took about a good 2 hours under 30dbz echos before it started actually qualifying as light snow here. KSWF is still reporting a dew point of 16, which I think is actually quite a bit higher than it was a few hours ago. KCDW went from 34 degrees and overcast with a dew point of 16 around 9:30 to 29 degrees with moderate snow and dew point of 21 degrees. My dew is slowly creeping up. Was 13° earlier this morning, now at 16°. Noticed lgt snow has begun in Warwick a few mins ago. Should be a matter of time before we start seeing flakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Northwest NJ said: When is the brunt of the storm with the heavy snow supposed to hit NYC.? It has only been snowing lightly for the last 45 minutes and I want to take the express bus from Bayside Queens into Manhattan and leave the city around 5PM but don't want to have a hard time getting home. I wouldn't leave NYC any later than 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, snywx said: 6-10" I think is a good range for you guys in the city. I got 4 inches in midtown patio on the 7th floor. We getting a foot here for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 De Blasio said 11-18 for NYC with 3 inch an hour rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Northwest NJ said: When is the brunt of the storm with the heavy snow supposed to hit NYC.? It has only been snowing lightly for the last 45 minutes and I want to take the express bus from Bayside Queens into Manhattan and leave the city around 5PM but don't want to have a hard time getting home. see if you can leave earlier. if it comes down hard their won't be any express buses.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: My dew is slowly creeping up. Was 13° earlier this morning, now at 16°. Noticed lgt snow has begun in Warwick a few mins ago. Should be a matter of time before we start seeing flakes here. With the last few storms, especially the one on March 7th, it went from flurries to moderate snow in about two minutes. This time around we had a lot more dry air to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Got a good hammering in East Central NJ, over 2" so far. A little lull coming up and then probably the meat of the storm after 3-4PM. Patience is warranted, yes the NWS may be wrong but until the storm is over, you can't cry bust. There's over 12 hrs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 UV index is 4.5 by me. Just shows how much sun can get through the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: 1" on the ground an 31F; only got about 1/4" the past hour with light/moderate snow; streets now mostly black again as we've had some melting. Need greater rates to cover them, which look to be coming, based on radar filling in. Good thing about higher ratio, drier snow is less sticking to trees and power lines and less outages... 1.5" OTG as of 11:30 am, so 1/2" in the last 90 minutes - been mostly light to moderate. 14Z HRRR only had me at 1.5" at this point and 12Z NAM had me around an inch or so, which is pretty impressive actually, although HRRR only has me at about 9" at the end and NAM at almost 11", which would be fine, but maybe a little disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: With the last few storms, especially the one on March 7th, it went from flurries to moderate snow in about two minutes. This time around we had a lot more dry air to overcome. I think that is what I'm still trying to overcome. Nothing is really falling from Sandy Hook to LBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Look at HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 NAM and HRRR are advertising the biggest amounts for LI with less for NJ. Anyone buying that? If these models are right I might get 7 to 9 inches here while LI gets over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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