Rjay Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 Put Cranky related stuff in the vendor thread until he frees @forkyfork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Seems if this nudges more the tight gradient will be big. This might even out snow amounts for the coast and Long Island with communities to the N&W In January 2016 my home in Lynbrook got 20 inches+ while my home in Liberty NY not even a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Seems if this nudges more the tight gradient will be big. This might even out snow amounts for the coast and Long Island with communities to the N&W In January 2016 my home in Lynbrook got 20 inches+ while my home in Liberty NY not even a flake. Are you talking about the Jan 22-24, 2016 snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Are you talking about the Jan 22-24, 2016 snowstorm? I believe so, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I wonder if the models are trending towards a consensus. Euro trending slightly north and NAM and GFS and Ukmet trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder if the models are trending towards a consensus. Euro trending slightly north and NAM and GFS and Ukmet trending south. This is what I'm afraid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 47 minutes ago, Enigma said: It would be unprecedented for this winter to not have some shifting in QPF field over the next 60 hr. A 195 special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: Is there an app for this forum? It's slow using chrome on my phone Use it on TapATalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Much better than the OP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: It actually went north by a lot and became wetter. Thats at least a 50 mile jog north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 My guess right now is 2/6/10 shifted 50 miles north but you won’t see amounts anywhere near that. The ceiling is probably a foot in the jackpot zone and that will be very isolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My guess right now is 2/6/10 shifted 50 miles north but you won’t see amounts anywhere near that. The ceiling is probably a foot in the jackpot zone and that will be very isolated Is that the storm that nailed Washington DC and Baltimore and brought up snow to Staten Island but New York City got nothing ? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, sferic said: Is that to storm that nailed Philadelphia and brought up snow to Staten Island but New York City got nothing ? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Yes. That’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Nam went south and is a miss for most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Nam went south and is a miss for most of the area This is what I was afraid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I got 3" from the 2/6/10 storm on S.I. the southern part got more...we got beat with the last big one near the end of the month...I got maybe 12" while NYC got 21"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And now we have lost the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Where have we seen all this model shifting before?...hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The models are starting to hone in on a M/D JP. I think we got teased by the 12z NAM. Hopefully I'm wrong and we start seeing a northward push. I'll admit I'm jaded by this miserable month. Snow to the left, right, north and south. Comes with the territory though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 A south shift on the Nam but take a look at the trailing energy. With the Euro ensembles looking more interesting for wave 2, I wonder if thats the one we should be focusing on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, snow1 said: And now we have lost the nam It's still way early man I guess you haven't been following these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Nice hit for SNJ and philly on the Nam Hopefully the confluence is overmodeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, snow1 said: And now we have lost the nam doesn't matter - the NAM just reminded us why we don't pay much attention to it till it gets within 60 hours when it produces what it did at 18Z - crazy track and at 84 hours develops a low on the North Carolina coast - what did it plan on doing with that if it could extend out further ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I am actually amazed we are talking about confluence and suppression concerns in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, Rtd208 said: I am actually amazed we are talking about confluence and suppression concerns in March. could all end up being mostly a model fantasy in the end - who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 And now we have lost the namAs a side note... We should not be relying on snowfall maps (never tbh, but) for this scenario. What falls and what accumulates will be two very different scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 21 minutes ago, snow1 said: And now we have lost the nam As a side note... We should not be relying on snowfall maps (never tbh, but) for this scenario. What falls and what accumulates will be two very different scenarios. Everything will accumulate with the cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Lol you guys are gonna go crazy with the run to run shifts with wave 1. You have a shortwave getting shredded as it goes from west to east. With the confluence around there is going to be sharp cutoff. Its gonna take awhile before we know more or less where that cutoff is going to be. As SnowGoose mentioned before, upper end snowfall potential is very limited. The 12Z Euro Ensembles and 18Z Nam show the trailing energy has some good potential. Even the 12Z globals trended to having a better wave #2. Here is the 18Z Nam with wave 2 which sorta looks like the original idea the globals had for this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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