NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Starting to see some 30dbz echos over Bergen County now. Still nothing but flurries falling at the moment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: Woah huge increase on the SREF Plumes. KBDR went from a mean of 8.71 to 12.12 Yeah SW CT could easily end up with the most in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I don't need to JP to be happy. Just need to not bust low for once this month. Amen to that. Looks like we're finally going to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Starting to see some 30dbz echos over Bergen County now. Still nothing but flurries falling at the moment though. I got almost 0.2 of freezing rain this morning. Just started to change over now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Effects must be spreading south to north - getting first signs of pavement sticking up along the GC. It's even got a bit of a NW orientation. Good ocean effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Starting to see some 30dbz echos over Bergen County now. Still nothing but flurries falling at the moment though. It'll take a bit to match the low dews, but once it starts it's rock steady. I see this all as bonus to the main show this PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: This is a great sign That's pretty much spot on for the Hudson valley. Dew pt. of 24 at KHPN and 18 at KSWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah SW CT could easily end up with the most in the area. 12Z RPM agrees, and it's been trending towards that. Also keeps accum snow going in the city til 5-6AM and well after on LI. Often find the 15Z more accurate as it will have ingested 12Z data, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I knew this storm was going to be very good for the area. Temps are below freezing and a classic closure of 500mb low. Also the stalling of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: So all the maps being posted show Somerset County in the screw zone and basically in a snow hole like usual, but Mt Holly says this...I'm just west of Somerville. Not feeling confident right now in this forecast. What is Mt Holly looking at that is so different than being posted here? Synoptically: no chg from pattern recognition. A big event isunfolding and we just need to be patient. Significant nearlystationary banding now evident N central MD to eastern Berkswestern Bucks County to near NYC. EVERYONE will share in snowbut the main axis of the S+ should be vcnty MQS-CKZ-SMQ (Chester PA to near Doylestown PA to Somerville). Higheramts than forecast are possible in the NNJ part of our fcst,particularly Northampton, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Somersetbut we`re not raising at this time until we know for sure whatwe already have at 230 PM. HUH? I got 19" last storm. Backyard looks like a scene from the walking dead, LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Also helps that temps have dropped 6 degrees since precip onset at 7am (36) to now (30). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I don't need to JP to be happy. Just need to not bust low for once this month. Here Here! I seriously would love to get 8 inches outta this, that's great for March and more than anything else this year. Sadly, what i'm looking at outside is the usual. Hope I'm not in subsidence zone again for this one. Note; no one has to come in here to reassure me or anything. I'm a big boy it's ok if it doesn't snow a lot IMBY. Life will go on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sactown4 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I knew this storm was going to be very good for the area. Temps are below freezing and a classic closure of 500mb low. Also the stalling of the low. I always hope you're right, but it's been a tough March. Last think to worry about is that if doesn't stall while we're in a snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxman said: HUH? I got 19" last storm. Backyard looks like a scene from the walking dead, LOL! You also have elevation, Branchburg doesn't. So you are more the exception for the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 IF IT IS STILL SNOWING AT 6am WOULD NYC CLOSE ITS SCHOOLS..AGAIN WITH SANDY THEY CLOSED FOR 4 DAYS BLIZZARD OF 96 2 DAYS AND A DELAY ON THE 3RD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Animal said: Screw zone my area. Lube ready. Is it not snowing up by us? Not too far away at work in Butler, it's snowing real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: IF IT IS STILL SNOWING AT 6am WOULD NYC CLOSE ITS SCHOOLS..AGAIN WITH SANDY THEY CLOSED FOR 4 DAYS BLIZZARD OF 96 2 DAYS AND A DELAY ON THE 3RD I actually COULD'VE had school. Roads are fine. Maybe an early dismissal today if I did have school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The RAP has it too. I'm hoping that you are correct. Stop posting model QPF maps. It's lazy and bad meteorology. If you don't know how - or wont take the time - to read the soundings et al and figure out WHY a model is showing blotches and whether its real or just model noise, just stop posting and let other posters do their thing. The board isn't a place for you to vent your fear that you end up in a local minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The 12z NAM sim radar looks nothing like the HRRR or the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1" on the ground an 31F; only got about 1/4" the past hour with light/moderate snow; streets now mostly black again as we've had some melting. Need greater rates to cover them, which look to be coming, based on radar filling in. Good thing about higher ratio, drier snow is less sticking to trees and power lines and less outages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: You also have elevation, Branchburg doesn't. So you are more the exception for the area... Elevation, especially in March, is very important. I am probably less than 3 miles from wxman but 350 feet lower in elevation and received about 10" from that storm. I am guessing this one may be more uniform for our areas since it seems colder. Just have to get a little lucky with the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Drz1111 said: Stop posting model QPF maps. It's lazy and bad meteorology. If you don't know how - or wont take the time - to read the soundings et al and figure out WHY a model is showing blotches and whether its real or just model noise, just stop posting and let other posters do their thing. The board isn't a place for you to vent your fear that you end up in a local minimum. I'm more than capable. I've been doing this since weather boards became a thing back in the early 2000's. I also find it hard to ignore that just about every piece of guidance has steadily shown a trimming of the higher amounts on the NW periphery, with the Euro leading the pack. It's not because I'm afraid of being in the "local minimum". It's because I'm smart enough to know that accumulations will be minimal if you end up on the wrong side of the band that comes through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: I actually COULD'VE had school. Roads are fine. Maybe an early dismissal today if I did have school i have never heard of the city ever doing early dismissal.. so it had to be schools open or closed...the mayor picked the wiser choice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Raining here. And I think it’s good that the NYC schools closed, even if it isn’t bad now it can be extremely difficult getting home via public transportation after dismissal....I’ve lived it, one time I got home at night (2:20 PM dismissal) and is why I stayed home during storms more often than not. NYC schools actually didn’t begin closing for bad weather until somewhat recently, I graduated from HS in 2010 and can count on one hand the number of times school closed due to bad weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, sferic said: IF IT IS STILL SNOWING AT 6am WOULD NYC CLOSE ITS SCHOOLS..AGAIN WITH SANDY THEY CLOSED FOR 4 DAYS BLIZZARD OF 96 2 DAYS AND A DELAY ON THE 3RD first of all sandy you had no subways service to many parts of the city buses did not run till next day and they were crowded many schools had no power... the 96 storm was a blizzard this won't be no 1996 storm... bad comparisons.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Can't believe how this is performing here in Manhattan early. 30 at my place, 31 at the park. Heavy snow w 1/4 mile visibility for an hour now. Drifting on my terrace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Sticking basically everywhere in the city, there was easily over an inch on cars and grassy surfaces when I left my place half an hour ago. Currently heavy snow in Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, chrisNJ said: Elevation, especially in March, is very important. I am probably less than 3 miles from wxman but 350 feet lower in elevation and received about 10" from that storm. I am guessing this one may be more uniform for our areas since it seems colder. Just have to get a little lucky with the banding. well if the storm started at night that would erase the sun angle.. we shall see if it is heavy snow when the sun goes down tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, chrisNJ said: Elevation, especially in March, is very important. I am probably less than 3 miles from wxman but 350 feet lower in elevation and received about 10" from that storm. I am guessing this one may be more uniform for our areas since it seems colder. Just have to get a little lucky with the banding. Exactly, we are very close to each other, but he is on the mountain and we are basically in the valley between him and the area by Bridgewater/Basking Ridge/Warren. So totals will vary significantly over a few miles with the elevation changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, hooralph said: Can't believe how this is performing here in Manhattan early. 30 at my place, 31 at the park. Heavy snow w 1/4 mile visibility for an hour now. Drifting on my terrace. me to snowing almost moderately no sleet here in manhattan past the upper east side...when it snows harder that is when all the fun begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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