NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Is this ULL in the Midwest closing off? It's closed off - The upper air pattern is much different than it was modeled to be even five days ago, but various model runs had this occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, sferic said: Can this storm really accumulate in NYC/LI until midnight? If conditions stay as they are now I see no reason why it can not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Moderate snow, beginning to stick to all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Can this storm really accumulate in NYC/LI until midnight? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, RU848789 said: ok, I'm done whining about models and potential busts for now and am going to enjoy the show. After about 2 hours of sleep with occasional waking to look out the window, we've ust had a nice hour of moderate snow, heavy for a few stretches (by radar) and we have 3/4" on the ground as of 9 am and it's 31F and sticking to everything. With the sun getting higher in the sky we will need more intensity to keep the snow on the paved surfaces, as sun and traffic will do their dirty work, but grassy surfaces should be no issue from here on out, as they're covered with high albedo snow and it's below freezing at the surface. Not confident in my 12" forecast for Metuchen, but who knows, eh? That's half the fun. It's already sticking on the main roads here in Manhattan Heat Island with moderate to occasionally heavy intensity so the sun angle is not an issue whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The cutback N&W of NYC is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Latest, cutback up here again https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The cutback N&W of NYC is real. No, it’s not. What you’re seeing is the HRRR predicting some midlevel dryness. But I don’t buy it - it overpredicted that in NYC, and we’re already seeing signs of better saturation in the DGZ with increasing flake size. It’s the same model with the same initiaization error being posted over and over again by a bad poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: No, it’s not. What you’re seeing is the HRRR predicting some midlevel dryness. But I don’t buy it - it overpredicted that in NYC, and we’re already seeing signs of better saturation in the DGZ with increasing flake size. It’s the same model with the same initiaization error being posted over and over again by a bad poster. The RAP has it too. I'm hoping that you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Excellent discussion from the NWS a few minutes ago. They're sticking with the forecast, but note bust potential near Philly/SNJ on the low side and NW NJ/NE PA on the high side (they have lower forecasts right now). Also confirming what many of us thought would likely be the case - snow/liquid ratios above 10:1. National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 848 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 8 AM checkin. STS snow grid as posted on PHI web site and in briefing pkgs conts as is and is from 8AM today through 8 AM Thursday and does NOT include what occurred between 8 AM ydy and 8AM this morning. No further briefing pkgs today but we will update the STS as it becomes apparent to us that amounts will differ more 2 inches from our fcst. Will we get 10-12" in PHL? Possibly not but its going to be quite a mess. We already have a widening areas of MDT snow developing eastern PA and nw NJ just west of the I95 corridor and its only 12z with many reports coming in now of 2" snowfall in the last several hours. Also fwiw...temps rose into the upper 30s overnight in the I95 corridor when pcpn quit and still the ice/snow mix held strong. Ground has been cooled. We will be issuing LSR`s only for 1/hr snowfall accumulations and glaze reports elsewhere that totaled 0.1 or greater. Lets continue sending those reports to us via our skywarn or social media accts. Both the glaze overnight and the storm total snow and lets us know how the roads are doing and if any power outages. Collapsing thicknesses as pcpn now is changing to sleet and then snow most of our I95 area except the coast this morning. Synoptically: no chg from pattern recognition. A big event is unfolding and we just need to be patient. Significant nearly stationary banding now evident N central MD to eastern Berks western Bucks County to near NYC. EVERYONE will share in snow but the main axis of the S+ should be vcnty MQS-CKZ-SMQ (Chester PA to near Doylestown PA to Somerville). Higher amts than forecast are possible in the NNJ part of our fcst, particularly Northampton, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset but we`re not raising at this time until we know for sure what we already have at 230 PM. If we update...it will be STS (short term statements) only and posted to our office winter wx web page and also SM. Inverted trough developing from the developing primary coastal low through through Ches Bay and that can aid lift to its northeast. Monitoring. Regardless of snow amounts, SUBSTANTIAL impacts, including power outages and additional tree damage, are likely due to a combination of heavy snow, strong winds, blowing and drifting snow. Mesoscale wise: please note we are aware of a typical Berks county downslope shadow in western Berks. I can see storm totals ranging 7" western Berks to 15" near Huffs Church in the high terrain far eastern Berks. No changes yet but we are aware of the potential. Snow ratios: in 3 hr increments 12z tdy-07z tonight. PHL 9,10,11,12,12,12 to 1 using snow ratio blender. In the cldr ptn of storm e PA/NNJ vcnty I78 10,12,12,12,12,12 to 1 with Poconos slightly higher snow ratio. So even if qpf were to decrease this aftn, snow ratios will permit greater hourly accums. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... The low will begin to move northeast away from the region, bringing a gradual end to the snow but still expect an easy 1-3" after 8 PM. For the most part, expect any significant accumulations to be over with around 2 AM. Light snow showers may linger into the early morning hours, especially across northern NJ. For low temperatures, have gone on the lower side of guidance in anticipation of a widespread snow pack by that time.https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, sferic said: Can this storm really accumulate in NYC/LI until midnight? at least. some of the latest hi-res has accumulating snow well past midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Looks to be snowing several hours more after the end of that HrRR run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If that yellow/orange could spread northwest 25 miles, I'm golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Late in the game, wetter for most than 03z. Cut back a bit on the NW side but increased to the East of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: at least. some of the latest hi-res has accumulating snow well past midnight. No kidding, still snowing at sunrise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The RAP has it too. I'm hoping that you are correct. NWS Philly disco thinks NW NJ will bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Very heavy snow. Sticking everywhere in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 NYC, this is your storm. Enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: NYC, this is your storm. Enjoy it I'm starting to feel it too. FINALLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: NWS Philly disco thinks NW NJ will bust high. Yeah I see that, too bad I really don't live in NW NJ lol They are talking mainly about the I-78 corridor in Western NJ anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Moderate to at times heavy, everything covered. Very early start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: NYC, this is your storm. Enjoy it Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: I'm starting to feel it too. FINALLY Feeling more confident that the highest totals are over Central Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 So all the maps being posted show Somerset County in the screw zone and basically in a snow hole like usual, but Mt Holly says this...I'm just west of Somerville. Not feeling confident right now in this forecast. What is Mt Holly looking at that is so different than being posted here? Synoptically: no chg from pattern recognition. A big event isunfolding and we just need to be patient. Significant nearlystationary banding now evident N central MD to eastern Berkswestern Bucks County to near NYC. EVERYONE will share in snowbut the main axis of the S+ should be vcnty MQS-CKZ-SMQ (Chester PA to near Doylestown PA to Somerville). Higheramts than forecast are possible in the NNJ part of our fcst,particularly Northampton, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Somersetbut we`re not raising at this time until we know for sure whatwe already have at 230 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: NYC, this is your storm. Enjoy it and surrounding areas LOL don't forget them as well.... I'd say within 25 miles either side of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Feeling more confident that the highest totals are over Central Suffolk County. I don't need to JP to be happy. Just need to not bust low for once this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I doubt many here will complain if we get a pretty uniform 12-18" across the board, and that could still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: I don't need to JP to be happy. Just need to not bust low for once this month. I hear you. Particularly in NYC itself it's been a tough March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Effects must be spreading south to north - getting first signs of pavement sticking up along the GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Woah huge increase on the SREF Plumes. KBDR went from a mean of 8.71 to 12.12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.