Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Just started sleeting now. I'm running for 6-10" when it's done. My thermometer says 29 right now and took an infared scan of my road, which is salted to the point of the Booneville salt flats, it's at 31 degrees. Looks like you won't be hurting yourself shoveling this morning...that 3" from 10Z by 9 am...it's gone to less than an inch for ya by 9 am on the 11Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in. I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed. Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in. I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed. Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off. Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It’s amazing how bad the folks are in this thread at interpreting models. I’m much more optimistic this AM than I was when I went to bed at 11:30 last night. We look absolutely golden for 10-15” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in. I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed. Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off. NAM has it passing/maturing in the small hours of tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow? This afternoon and tonight This storm will end tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: It’s amazing how bad the folks are in this thread at interpreting models. I’m much more optimistic this AM than I was when I went to bed at 11:30 last night. We look absolutely golden for 10-15” Absolutely agreed. Where are all the people with the 'bands are always NW of modeled' talk? Plus temps became less of an issue, and most importantly, radar looks fantastic. Models can say what they want, but a storm's gotta pass the eye test, which the cool kids call nowcasting these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogl Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Clinton Hill, Brooklyn. Grass/cars solid coating. Roads/sidewalks wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This is a great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow? Heaviest should be late afternoon through about midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Could be really ripping by like 4-5 PM. The slight delay of the heaviest snowfall will help with accumulations given the late March sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Does the training line running from roughly Scranton, PA to just south of Hartford, CT give us a good idea of the northern cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Looks like you won't be hurting yourself shoveling this morning...that 3" from 10Z by 9 am...it's gone to less than an inch for ya by 9 am on the 11Z run... That looks like the current TOTAL snowfall from yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Absolutely agreed. Where are all the people with the 'bands are always NW of modeled' talk? Plus temps became less of an issue, and most importantly, radar looks fantastic. Models can say what they want, but a storm's gotta pass the eye test, which the cool kids call nowcasting these days. For the post you quoted, Exact opposite for me. We call it the Toms River bubble. We blame it on the Lakehurst naval Base saying they're developing something to steer away any threatening weather snow, thunder, anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ja643y said: Does the training line running from roughly Scranton, PA to just south of Hartford, CT give us a good idea of the northern cutoff? Sort of, so what's happening right now is that the best forcing is along and just North of this line. That's why you're seeing heavier precip showing up near NYC and C NJ As time goes on, this pivots NW, it's already begun the process. Then that 500mb low pops, the storm reaches maximum strength. And then eventually the storm begins to slide East. Based on this, the strongest banding would be right over Eastern NJ, the LHV, NYC and most of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If you look at the SLP track between the GFS, NAM and ECMWF, it's very similar. Just small differences with the strength and exact track of that ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If you guys think that you’re going to figure out the exact location of the mid level convergence / frontogenesis from the models... well, good luck with that. It’s quasi random. Best you can do is circle a 30-50 mile wide zone and cross your fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: If you guys think that you’re going to figure out the exact location of the mid level convergence / frontogenesis from the models... well, good luck with that. It’s quasi random. Best you can do is circle a 30-50 mile wide zone and cross your fingers. this x 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Light to at times moderate snow. Already patches on colder parts of the road, covering everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Can anyone verify those yellow bands in Queens? Legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Is this ULL in the Midwest closing off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, tempestatis014 said: Is this ULL in the Midwest closing off? Already is I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Already is I think. Would that hinder some influence on the surface low or opposite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Status Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Can anyone verify those yellow bands in Queens? Legit? In Western Queens under some yellows and it's been high-end moderate to heavy for about 30 min now. Woke up at 8 to mostly wet and now almost everything white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: Would that hinder some influence on the surface low or opposite? Earlier someone mentioned that Cantore was saying it would steal some moisture but I'm not qualified to comment further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Earlier someone mentioned that Cantore was saying it would steal some moisture but I'm not qualified to comment further. I love when he gets angry when he doesn't get the worst of it. Cantore makes my day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 ok, I'm done whining about models and potential busts for now and am going to enjoy the show. After about 2 hours of sleep with occasional waking to look out the window, we've ust had a nice hour of moderate snow, heavy for a few stretches (by radar) and we have 3/4" on the ground as of 9 am and it's 31F and sticking to everything. With the sun getting higher in the sky we will need more intensity to keep the snow on the paved surfaces, as sun and traffic will do their dirty work, but grassy surfaces should be no issue from here on out, as they're covered with high albedo snow and it's below freezing at the surface. Not confident in my 12" forecast for Metuchen, but who knows, eh? That's half the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: ok, I'm done whining about models and potential busts for now and am going to enjoy the show. After about 2 hours of sleep with occasional waking to look out the window, we've ust had a nice hour of moderate snow, heavy for a few stretches (by radar) and we have 3/4" on the ground as of 9 am and it's 31F and sticking to everything. With the sun getting higher in the sky we will need more intensity to keep the snow on the paved surfaces, as sun and traffic will do their dirty work, but grassy surfaces should be no issue from here on out, as they're covered with high albedo snow and it's below freezing at the surface. Not confident in my 12" forecast for Metuchen, but who knows, eh? That's half the fun. Not true in Brooklyn we already have all surfaces cover with heavy snow falling sticking easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Not true in Brooklyn we already have all surfaces cover with heavy snow falling sticking easily Quickly accumulating here in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Can this storm really accumulate in NYC/LI until midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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