Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018032110&fh=14 2" LE in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . It easily has over a foot for the metro and it's not done snowing at the end of its run. Take it with a grain of salt though. It's focusing the energy to the low closest to us again like yesterday's models showed. If that's correct, then we would easily get 12"+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 radar is definitely improving all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: 10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . Yes, agreed. Same time period, through 11 pm...better for city and east and northern Jersey shore...but again, I think 6"-12" for most is a good expectation...locally higher amounts...modeling consistent on this imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: So then that 09z accum is definitely lower then the 10z u saying? Very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So then that 09z accum is definitely lower then the 10z u saying? Yes, see post above. The trend will be our friend? But...and a big BUT here...HRRR at this range might as well be GFS at 300+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GOES-16 WV is a thing of beauty right now. retrograding upper lows, figure 8, broad diffluence - i could go on and on... edit: click to animate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: GOES-16 WV is a thing of beauty right now. retrograding upper lows, figure 8, broad diffluence - i could go on and on... edit: click to animate. Love to see that convection in South Jersey get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: I am not that far through age yet 1 more year. For the sake of helping validate the HRRR, the 10Z run drops almost 3" on you (Toms River, northern Ocean County) by 9 am...let's see how that plays out. Radar just filled in there so let's see. 3 hours out, that is timeframe HRRR is supposed to perform great, let us know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Love to see that convection in South Jersey get here. both RAP and HRRR show really nice lapse rates developing from the delmarva and southern jersey to just south/southeast of long island later in the afternoon. definitely a non-zero chance for thundersnow ~4-9PM. there is a lot of drying in the snow growth region prior to that, so a lull appears fairly likely, or at least poor ratios and small/grainy snowflakes late morning and early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Radar is blooming really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: both RAP and HRRR show really nice lapse rates developing from the delmarva and southern jersey to just south/southeast of long island later in the afternoon. definitely a non-zero chance for thundersnow ~4-9PM. there is a lot of drying in the snow growth region prior to that, so a lull appears fairly likely, or at least poor ratios and small/grainy snowflakes late morning and early afternoon. What are your thoughts for the NJ suburbs 15-25 Miles west of the city? I’m in central Union County. Just interested in expectations and possible interest there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Radar is blooming really well. Indeed It is, good amount of brightbanding too though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018032110&fh=14 2" LE in Nassau. You seem a lot more optimistic this morning. What brought about the change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Indeed It is, good amount of brightbanding too though . Yeah I'd ignore those. The darker greens are probably more legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Mophstymeo said: You seem a lot more optimistic this morning. What brought about the change? I'm not, just pointing out what the HRRRRRRR is showing. It's a crusher. All other guidance has decreased totals, some significantly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm not, just pointing out what the HRRRRRRR is showing. It's a crusher. All other guidance has decreased totals, some significantly . Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Light snow. Down to 33 from 35 according to NWS. Up here in Harlem we're probably at or below freezing. Radar looks incredible. Hoping the SE model bias is gonna finally work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah I'd ignore those. The darker greens are probably more legit. I'm under the yellows in C NJ and it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I'm under the yellows in C NJ and it's legit. Nice. Sticking yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Flake size has gotten smaller, you can tell this will be a lighter/drier snow then what we had earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Nice. Sticking yet? Pretty solid grassy coating and colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 How did the GEFS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: How did the GEFS look? Too close to the event for the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Too close to the event for the gefs Ya who cares look at that radar. It's wayyy better than I would've expected this early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: How did the GEFS look? Tightly clustered 8-10, with a mean of 9" at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 28 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: For the sake of helping validate the HRRR, the 10Z run drops almost 3" on you (Toms River, northern Ocean County) by 9 am...let's see how that plays out. Radar just filled in there so let's see. 3 hours out, that is timeframe HRRR is supposed to perform great, let us know! Just started sleeting now. I'm running for 6-10" when it's done. My thermometer says 29 right now and took an infared scan of my road, which is salted to the point of the Booneville salt flats, it's at 31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 How about tnat Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: How about tnat Euro... She's an impertinent arse, that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Tightly clustered 8-10, with a mean of 9" at LGA. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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