Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Mophstymeo said: You seem a lot more optimistic this morning. What brought about the change? I'm not, just pointing out what the HRRRRRRR is showing. It's a crusher. All other guidance has decreased totals, some significantly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm not, just pointing out what the HRRRRRRR is showing. It's a crusher. All other guidance has decreased totals, some significantly . Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Light snow. Down to 33 from 35 according to NWS. Up here in Harlem we're probably at or below freezing. Radar looks incredible. Hoping the SE model bias is gonna finally work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah I'd ignore those. The darker greens are probably more legit. I'm under the yellows in C NJ and it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I'm under the yellows in C NJ and it's legit. Nice. Sticking yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Flake size has gotten smaller, you can tell this will be a lighter/drier snow then what we had earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Nice. Sticking yet? Pretty solid grassy coating and colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 How did the GEFS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: How did the GEFS look? Too close to the event for the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Too close to the event for the gefs Ya who cares look at that radar. It's wayyy better than I would've expected this early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: How did the GEFS look? Tightly clustered 8-10, with a mean of 9" at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 How about tnat Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: How about tnat Euro... She's an impertinent arse, that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Tightly clustered 8-10, with a mean of 9" at LGA. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Just started sleeting now. I'm running for 6-10" when it's done. My thermometer says 29 right now and took an infared scan of my road, which is salted to the point of the Booneville salt flats, it's at 31 degrees. Looks like you won't be hurting yourself shoveling this morning...that 3" from 10Z by 9 am...it's gone to less than an inch for ya by 9 am on the 11Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in. I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed. Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in. I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed. Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off. Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It’s amazing how bad the folks are in this thread at interpreting models. I’m much more optimistic this AM than I was when I went to bed at 11:30 last night. We look absolutely golden for 10-15” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Nothing falling here yet, but radar is slowly filling in. I'm not surprised that the models cut back some. A big part of it is that a lot of the models were too far North yesterday, so that's now been removed. Our ULL looks good and the jet maximum is still down in the deep South. That ULL has to pass by to our South before we need to worry about precip shutting off. NAM has it passing/maturing in the small hours of tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow? This afternoon and tonight This storm will end tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: It’s amazing how bad the folks are in this thread at interpreting models. I’m much more optimistic this AM than I was when I went to bed at 11:30 last night. We look absolutely golden for 10-15” Absolutely agreed. Where are all the people with the 'bands are always NW of modeled' talk? Plus temps became less of an issue, and most importantly, radar looks fantastic. Models can say what they want, but a storm's gotta pass the eye test, which the cool kids call nowcasting these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogl Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Clinton Hill, Brooklyn. Grass/cars solid coating. Roads/sidewalks wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This is a great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Yanks what time you think we'll get the heaviest and the most sticking snow? Heaviest should be late afternoon through about midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Could be really ripping by like 4-5 PM. The slight delay of the heaviest snowfall will help with accumulations given the late March sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Does the training line running from roughly Scranton, PA to just south of Hartford, CT give us a good idea of the northern cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ja643y said: Does the training line running from roughly Scranton, PA to just south of Hartford, CT give us a good idea of the northern cutoff? Sort of, so what's happening right now is that the best forcing is along and just North of this line. That's why you're seeing heavier precip showing up near NYC and C NJ As time goes on, this pivots NW, it's already begun the process. Then that 500mb low pops, the storm reaches maximum strength. And then eventually the storm begins to slide East. Based on this, the strongest banding would be right over Eastern NJ, the LHV, NYC and most of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If you look at the SLP track between the GFS, NAM and ECMWF, it's very similar. Just small differences with the strength and exact track of that ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If you guys think that you’re going to figure out the exact location of the mid level convergence / frontogenesis from the models... well, good luck with that. It’s quasi random. Best you can do is circle a 30-50 mile wide zone and cross your fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: If you guys think that you’re going to figure out the exact location of the mid level convergence / frontogenesis from the models... well, good luck with that. It’s quasi random. Best you can do is circle a 30-50 mile wide zone and cross your fingers. this x 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.