Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: you're in maspeth or where? I'm at my shop in Greenpoint. Moderate snow right now. Probably half mile visibility or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Temperatures should drop to the 29/30 range given current temps and dews, so there shouldn't be any problems with accumulating. Latest HRRR is really aggressive. Can you post the recent HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm at my shop in Greenpoint. Moderate snow right now. Probably half mile visibility or so. cool. that image didn't show pellets in greenpoint. just south bk/qns, within a mile or two of the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Temperatures should drop to the 29/30 range given current temps and dews, so there shouldn't be any problems with accumulating. Latest HRRR is really aggressive. I would not call this "really aggressive". Widespread 6"-9" DC-NYC nice for March, no doubt...or anytime really. Good news is snow is still falling at this time, a few more hours likely, especially east of city. After dark will help with accumulations. I think really aggressive would be misleading, IMO, but YMMV! Good luck, all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Can you post the recent HRRR? See my last post...fwiw, snow is still falling, especially east of the city at that time, so final totals would go up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: I would not call this "really aggressive". Widespread 6"-9" DC-NYC nice for March, no doubt...or anytime really. I think really aggressive would be misleading, IMO, but YMMV! Good luck, all! That's old. 10z coming in juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: I would not call this "really aggressive". Widespread 6"-9" DC-NYC nice for March, no doubt...or anytime really. I think really aggressive would be misleading, IMO, but YMMV! Good luck, all! That’s through 7-8pm only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: I would not call this "really aggressive". Widespread 6"-9" nice for March, no doubt...or anytime really. I think really aggressive would be misleading, IMO, but YMMV! Good luck, all! The HRRR doesn't go out to nearly the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: Just my luck. I wake up and look at the models and GFS ***** the bed. It's saying 3". That little blip of blue near east- central NJ. I never look at models when the ETA of an event is less than 6 hours away. So the last cycle I took into consideration was the 18z from yesterday. Do you have to show up to work by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: That’s through 7-8pm only Duly noted in my follow up post...and my OP updated as well. HRRR only goes to 18 so can't post anything further out in time until next run comes out, let's hope for increases through the day. What the models take away they can give back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Capt. Adam said: Duly noted in my follow up post...and my OP updated as well. HRRR only goes to 18 so can't post anything further out in time until next run comes out, let's hope for increases through the day. What the models take away they can give back! That's 4 runs ago anyway. 10z has almost 1.5" LE for city 1.75" for Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: That's 4 runs ago anyway. 10z has almost 1.5" LE for city 1.75" for Nassau. Good trends this morning. Best banding will hopefully be NW of guidance and we backed off some of the warmer solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: That's 4 runs ago anyway. 10z has almost 1.5" LE for city 1.75" for Nassau. Last map I posted was the 06Z...sorry about that...here is the 09Z out to 18 hrs...so this will be through 11 pm...not much additional in that 3 hour period...only another inch or so city and west...good improvement east as noted above...pretty consistent with the 6"-12" maps posted yesterday, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Capt. Adam said: Last map I posted was the 06Z...sorry about that...here is the 09Z out to 18 hrs...so this will be through 11 pm...not much additional in that 3 hour period...only another inch or so...pretty consistent with the 6"-12" maps posted yesterday, IMO. 10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: 10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . So then that 09z accum is definitely lower then the 10z u saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018032110&fh=14 2" LE in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . It easily has over a foot for the metro and it's not done snowing at the end of its run. Take it with a grain of salt though. It's focusing the energy to the low closest to us again like yesterday's models showed. If that's correct, then we would easily get 12"+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 radar is definitely improving all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: 10z is considerably more juiced. Take my word for it, I'm not even going with big totals . Yes, agreed. Same time period, through 11 pm...better for city and east and northern Jersey shore...but again, I think 6"-12" for most is a good expectation...locally higher amounts...modeling consistent on this imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: So then that 09z accum is definitely lower then the 10z u saying? Very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So then that 09z accum is definitely lower then the 10z u saying? Yes, see post above. The trend will be our friend? But...and a big BUT here...HRRR at this range might as well be GFS at 300+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GOES-16 WV is a thing of beauty right now. retrograding upper lows, figure 8, broad diffluence - i could go on and on... edit: click to animate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: GOES-16 WV is a thing of beauty right now. retrograding upper lows, figure 8, broad diffluence - i could go on and on... edit: click to animate. Love to see that convection in South Jersey get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: I am not that far through age yet 1 more year. For the sake of helping validate the HRRR, the 10Z run drops almost 3" on you (Toms River, northern Ocean County) by 9 am...let's see how that plays out. Radar just filled in there so let's see. 3 hours out, that is timeframe HRRR is supposed to perform great, let us know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Love to see that convection in South Jersey get here. both RAP and HRRR show really nice lapse rates developing from the delmarva and southern jersey to just south/southeast of long island later in the afternoon. definitely a non-zero chance for thundersnow ~4-9PM. there is a lot of drying in the snow growth region prior to that, so a lull appears fairly likely, or at least poor ratios and small/grainy snowflakes late morning and early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Radar is blooming really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: both RAP and HRRR show really nice lapse rates developing from the delmarva and southern jersey to just south/southeast of long island later in the afternoon. definitely a non-zero chance for thundersnow ~4-9PM. there is a lot of drying in the snow growth region prior to that, so a lull appears fairly likely, or at least poor ratios and small/grainy snowflakes late morning and early afternoon. What are your thoughts for the NJ suburbs 15-25 Miles west of the city? I’m in central Union County. Just interested in expectations and possible interest there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Radar is blooming really well. Indeed It is, good amount of brightbanding too though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018032110&fh=14 2" LE in Nassau. You seem a lot more optimistic this morning. What brought about the change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Indeed It is, good amount of brightbanding too though . Yeah I'd ignore those. The darker greens are probably more legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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