Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: I need 1 more inch to break 30 and 11 more to break 40 Yeah we were worried about NYC reaching 30" this year but there is a real shot at 40" and this may not be the last storm for the season either. Could be chances of storm right through the first half of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: What are the new totals? I thought 12-18 was the ceiling for where they'd go. Just talking verbage in the WSW. Was 11 to 15 now its 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Just talking verbage in the WSW. Was 11 to 15 now its 12-18. Yeah I was kind of surprised in the Mt Holly statement for up to 25" of snow and 3" W.E. but I guess more precip is expected out that way (and colder temps.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Just talking verbage in the WSW. Was 11 to 15 now its 12-18. I think 8-12 Is a better call but whoever gets into the banding will get more than 12 inches and you will not know how the storm.is actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Rgem still looks great About 20 hours of moderate to heavy snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem still looks great About 20 hours of moderate to heavy snow for the area. Best banding is well east of the City. North shore looks like a good place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: Mt Holly updated their snow map it seems...unless this is just an interim update...all they did was shrink the zones a bit, so not much change...still the big numbers n central. Actually that's a fairly significant reduction across the board by a few to several inches...Anyone seen an updated map from Upton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Best banding is well east of the City. North shore looks like a good place to be. LI always gets the best banding but we will not know until the storm actually starts. Enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Jesus Christ people posting radar images when the storm havent even started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Jesus Christ people posting radar images when the storm havent even started Happens all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Well, no map, but Upton says 12-18" still for most of their CWA... National Weather Service New York NY 446 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper low continues to march toward the east coast, with coastal low development noted just east of the Delmarva. With an expected track of the sfc low near the 40N/70W benchmark along with strong deep lift and banded precip, the stage is set or a major winter storm for the area. Colder and drier air is in place when compared to previous events. Nam, and lesser extent GFS along with various ensemble members indicate slight warming aloft for a possible wintry mix over SE LI, and perhaps SE CT through the morning. The storm has slowed a bit, and heavier precip will allow for ample cooling to result in a changeover by afternoon over these eastern locales. Colder air will be pulled down from the north as the storm deepens. Elsewhere, NYC metro including NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley and into SW CT, would typically be in the bulls eye of heavier snow conceptually. Always hard to pinpoint any potential bands, but generally expect 12 to 18 inches across these locations if everything pans out as expected (track, thermal profiles, etc). Temps in the 30s remain steady or fall as the heavier snow commences. Snow ratios look to be at least 10 to 1, and even 13 to 1 or 15 to 1 is possible interior. The western extent of the precip shield should keep amounts well NW down slightly, but a foot or more is possible even up across those locations. Winds will be quite gusty, with 40+ mph at times possible. Blizzard conditions are possible at times, just not quite enough confidence for that upgrade to the hazard. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As the slow moving storm begins to pull away, heavier snow will taper from west to east tonight. Once again, 7-12 inches possible well NW, 12-18 around NYC metro and into SW CT, and slightly lower totals are expected east due to mixing initially, and lower snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 How can Upton call for 10:1 ratios with above freezing BL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS cuts way back too. May even be white rain if these light rates materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS cuts way back too. May even be white rain if these light rates materialize. Ok we get it, enjoy your bust then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 that convective flare up in the southeast and offshore yesterday evening is likely robbing moisture necessary for today’s “event”. there have been too many red flags to go with the bonkers totals spit out by some guidance yesterday. upper dynamics improve for the late afternoon and early evening but widespread 12”+ seems highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Find somewhere else to bash the nws, its automatic suspensions if it happens anymore. If you cant disagree without the insults, im sure there are plenty of blog hosting sites you can use to your hearts desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 upton map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It sure is crazy that the models are split even this close to game time,,,I mean the exact track still very much in question and liquid amounts . If it is a long event and cold then snow will accumulate but where do the heavier bands setup and will it be moist or drier ? which models have it correct------cutback in moisture amounts on more than 1 model is concerning to me but I'm a novice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: upton map... RU repost if you can TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: that convective flare up in the southeast and offshore yesterday evening is likely robbing moisture necessary for today’s “event”. there have been too many red flags to go with the bonkers totals spit out by some guidance yesterday. upper dynamics improve for the late afternoon and early evening but widespread 12”+ seems highly unlikely. 8-12 is more likely with 12+ in banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: upton map... Upton is not backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Very light snow and winds starting to pick up. 36F. Waiting patiently for my beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 8-12 is more likely with 12+ in banding. 5-8 is most likely with 8+ in banding. this still has time to bust in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 5-8 is most likely with 8+ in banding. this still has time to bust in either direction. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 5-8 is most likely with 8+ in banding. this still has time to bust in either direction. Morning guidance, save the NAM, is in that 5 to 8 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Agree 5 post above this you said a foot. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, seanick said: 5 post above this you said a foot. Lol 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Upton has 16 inches for NYC and 14 inches for JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8-12, 12-18, 6-10, 5-8, dry, wet, robbing moisture, heavy banding..sounds like the porn industry on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 we got a ton of dry air to filter out, give it time and quit the panicing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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