SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS cuts way back too. May even be white rain if these light rates materialize. Ok we get it, enjoy your bust then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 that convective flare up in the southeast and offshore yesterday evening is likely robbing moisture necessary for today’s “event”. there have been too many red flags to go with the bonkers totals spit out by some guidance yesterday. upper dynamics improve for the late afternoon and early evening but widespread 12”+ seems highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Find somewhere else to bash the nws, its automatic suspensions if it happens anymore. If you cant disagree without the insults, im sure there are plenty of blog hosting sites you can use to your hearts desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 upton map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It sure is crazy that the models are split even this close to game time,,,I mean the exact track still very much in question and liquid amounts . If it is a long event and cold then snow will accumulate but where do the heavier bands setup and will it be moist or drier ? which models have it correct------cutback in moisture amounts on more than 1 model is concerning to me but I'm a novice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: upton map... RU repost if you can TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: that convective flare up in the southeast and offshore yesterday evening is likely robbing moisture necessary for today’s “event”. there have been too many red flags to go with the bonkers totals spit out by some guidance yesterday. upper dynamics improve for the late afternoon and early evening but widespread 12”+ seems highly unlikely. 8-12 is more likely with 12+ in banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: upton map... Upton is not backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Very light snow and winds starting to pick up. 36F. Waiting patiently for my beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 8-12 is more likely with 12+ in banding. 5-8 is most likely with 8+ in banding. this still has time to bust in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 5-8 is most likely with 8+ in banding. this still has time to bust in either direction. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 5-8 is most likely with 8+ in banding. this still has time to bust in either direction. Morning guidance, save the NAM, is in that 5 to 8 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Agree 5 post above this you said a foot. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, seanick said: 5 post above this you said a foot. Lol 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Upton has 16 inches for NYC and 14 inches for JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8-12, 12-18, 6-10, 5-8, dry, wet, robbing moisture, heavy banding..sounds like the porn industry on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 we got a ton of dry air to filter out, give it time and quit the panicing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Hi-res RGEM also cuts back, Suffolk co. Jackpot. Hopefully we can get banding NWof guidance as happens quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Rap has the metro area over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 TWC just downgraded snowfall forecasts for the big cities; still has 8-12" for NNJ/NYC, but was 12-18" before. Cantore said the inland low closed off and will rob the ocean low of moisture reducing precip (seen on almost every model last night including the Euro). Bust potential is pretty high for Upton and somewhat high for Mt. Holly (vs. their lowered amounts), especially in spring with snow falling during the day - we really need good rates of 1" per hour to ensure we accumulate well (melting rate is at least 1/2" per hour this time of year); at least surface temps ought to cool to at or below 32F, reducing melting some vs. previous storms. I hope I'm wrong, but that's what my gut tells me. Here's the fundamental problem in spring. if you get 1" per hour rates for 10 hours, you'll likely get 8-9" of snow, since you'll overcome the melting rate quickly and accumulate rather easily with minimal melting, especially if air temps are below 32F. But if you get 1/2" per hour rates for 10 hours, you probably end up a slushy inch on the ground, since the melting rate is so close to the snowfall rate the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map That ULL is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm surprised that Upton is putting out such high totals for such a large area, a floor of 12 seems awfully high, it should be the ceiling. The trend on all the models outside the NAM has been a less dynamic further east jackpot so I can understand why there's some concern about the higher totals. I'm debating about heading into work now, I guess I'll take the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Usually I think the dry air is good cause it's drier snow and it's good that the ground is not even wet so it may evaporatively cool the column rather quick and start accumulating once it gets cranking, combined with wet numbing and eventually dynamic cooling. Every storm this month we had wet ground and warm ground to work with. I think the rates are going to be higher with this and this is why Upton is sticking to their guns I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 correlation coefficient is picking up on pellets at JFK, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I do agree Upton is a bit high but it’s still going to snow! 6-10 inches is probably more likely at this time which is amazing for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Snowing in Trumbull CT with DP of 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: correlation coefficient is picking up on pellets at JFK, etc. I'm under it, it's snowing well, no sleet . Only sticking on grass and cars currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm under it, it's snowing well, no sleet . Only sticking on grass and cars currently. you're in maspeth or where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Temperatures should drop to the 29/30 range given current temps and dews, so there shouldn't be any problems with accumulating. Latest HRRR is really aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Ok so I checked out both the 06z NAM and GFS.... looks to have the area in the .75-1.25” LE which extends as far north as parts of extreme Northern NJ and up to I84 then down through CT and into Long Island. So with that said the area looks good for a 5-12 inch snowfall with definitely isolated up to 15” in random spots. Guys that’s great for March 21st. Main action isn’t until early afternoon into the evening time. Stop the bickering and enjoy it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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