RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 So, I know the pros always say not to look at snowfall maps, but I'm not expert enough to analyze upper air maps and trends and figure out what's going on, but I am pretty good at pattern recognition and nearly every 00Z model - GFS, UK, CMC, RDPS (RGEM), and HRPDS (high res RPDS) - showed a modest to occasionally significant decrease in snowfall vs. 18Z or 12Z. Only the NAM 12 km and 3 km looked similar, at least for CNJ/NNJ/NYC (and more to the north). Is this truly meaningful? I think it is and others have been saying it is. I mostly am wondering if this will be the extent of the reduction or might we be facing more? At some point, if we don't get near the 1-2" per hour rates being advertised for 2 days now, we're going to see a fair amount of white rain, even with better surface temps than the previous nor-easters and that will reduce accumulations even more (and if we don't get as good a level of crystal growth, we also might not reach 10:1 as I was hoping, given good column thermal profiles). Don't get me wrong - getting 6-10" in March would still be pretty damn cool - but not as cool as the NWS 12-18" forecast for most of the area. Anyone want to pull me back off the ledge? Maybe the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Euro looks east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Euro looks east Sounds like it was pretty similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 0z Euro looks to have 6-8" for the City/coast, 3-5" for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, RU848789 said: So, I know the pros always say not to look at snowfall maps, but I'm not expert enough to analyze upper air maps and trends and figure out what's going on, but I am pretty good at pattern recognition and nearly every 00Z model - GFS, UK, CMC, RDPS (RGEM), and HRPDS (high res RPDS) - showed a modest to occasionally significant decrease in snowfall vs. 18Z or 12Z. Only the NAM 12 km and 3 km looked similar, at least for CNJ/NNJ/NYC (and more to the north). Is this truly meaningful? I think it is and others have been saying it is. I mostly am wondering if this will be the extent of the reduction or might we be facing more? At some point, if we don't get near the 1-2" per hour rates being advertised for 2 days now, we're going to see a fair amount of white rain, even with better surface temps than the previous nor-easters and that will reduce accumulations even more (and if we don't get as good a level of crystal growth, we also might not reach 10:1 as I was hoping, given good column thermal profiles). Don't get me wrong - getting 6-10" in March would still be pretty damn cool - but not as cool as the NWS 12-18" forecast for most of the area. Anyone want to pull me back off the ledge? Maybe the Euro? Euro wants to give you a push and say have a nice flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I could honestly care less what the Euro or other global models show at this point. Nowcasting and the short range models are the way to go and even the short range models don't always get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 All I'm going to say at this point is if the city busts it's going to be because of boundary temps and not a lack of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Euro wants to give you a push and say have a nice flight This might bring him back: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Most of the mesoscale models still look very good for us. We'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: All I'm going to say at this point is if the city busts it's going to be because of boundary temps and not a lack of QPF. I will admit I am currently a bit concerned about temps, I thought it would have been at least a few degrees colder by now. The storm is just starting to get cranking so we will see what happens. I still believe once things do get going though that the snow will be lighter/drier then what we had earlier in the month that caused all of the power outages. We will see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z Euro looks to have 6-8" for the City/coast, 3-5" for the interior. Ouch. Not what you wanted just prior to a historical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Animal said: Ouch. Not what you eanted just prior to a historical storm. Euro is a big outlier and should be tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is a big outlier and should be tossed At what point do we stop tossing model runs? Because we've tossed about every model run from the 0z suite. Additionally, I would say it is concerning - as some mentioned - that literally every model of which I am aware cut back on snow totals (and some significantly). That is not a good sign. And by the way - current obs - hot, real hot. It's 38 degrees and going nowhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Will be interesting to see what changes the nws makes with their next forecast package in 90 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 At what point do we stop tossing model runs? Because we've tossed about every model run from the 0z suite. Additionally, I would say it is concerning - as some mentioned - that literally every model of which I am aware cut back on snow totals (and some significantly). That is not a good sign. And by the way - current obs - hot, real hot. It's 38 degrees and going nowhere fast.Biggest change I see is dynamics farther East which reduces banding on W and NW side but also aids in less of a capture/stall and a quicker departing storm. Hopefully we can all manage a last second tug W before it escapes as models are quickly converging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Mt Holly updated their snow map it seems...unless this is just an interim update...all they did was shrink the zones a bit, so not much change...still the big numbers n central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The storm passed somewhat too far to the south and east to bring NYC into its heaviest snows. The storm's precipitation intensity was greatest over southeastern Pennsylvania. Select accumulations: Allentown: 5.0” Atlantic City: 6.0” Boston: 6.1” Bridgeport: 6.4” Cutchogue: 10.0” Harrisburg: Trace New London: 9.0” New York City: 10.0” Newark: 15.8” Philadelphia: 19.4” Portland: 8.6” Providence: 4.6” Wilmington: 12.0” Weird six inch difference between Newark and NYC, Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 06z 12K NAM looks great! CCB right over NYC area several times during the run. Long duration storm as well. 32K & 3K appears similar so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Mt Holly updated their snow map it seems...unless this is just an interim update...all they did was shrink the zones a bit, so not much change...still the big numbers n central.6z NAM looks awesome... Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Meteoropoulos said: 06z 12K NAM looks great! CCB right over NYC area several times during the run. Long duration storm as well. 32K & 3K appears similar so far. Great track too- I dont know why so many are obsessed with the 40/70 BM, our benchmark is actually where the latitude of ACY intersects with the longitude of MTP and this storms looks to pass right near that point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Nam is colder and all snow Enjoy the big snowstorm =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam is colder and all snow Enjoy the big snowstorm =) NAM is great for storms like this! How much precip does it print out and what's the duration of the storm on it? This does remind me a bit of Jan 2016 where the storm slowly edged north and the NAM was great there too. I hope we get 3" W.E. again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: NAM is great for storms like this! How much precip does it print out and what's the duration of the storm on it? This does remind me a bit of Jan 2016 where the storm slowly edged north and the NAM was great there too. I hope we get 3" W.E. again 20 hour storm and 1.50qpf for the city with more in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 20 hour storm and 1.50qpf for the city with more in LI. Oh nice, and these people who are worried about temps, temps will drop as soon as the snow starts. Maybe someone will get 20" out of this; I even saw a Mt Holly discussion about 25" being possible in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Paragon said: Oh nice, and these people who are worried about temps, temps will drop as soon as the snow starts. Maybe someone will get 20" out of this; I even saw a Mt Holly discussion about 25" being possible in NJ. Someone will get near 20 with the banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 33 minutes ago, pstar3182 said: Dry Very, already see subsidence being a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Someone will get near 20 with the banding Would be nice to break the March 1888 record in NYC, but I think that was underreported, Kocin has 32" in Brooklyn with that storm! https://maps.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=65 The Great Blizzard of 1888; America’s Greatest Snow Disaster By: Christopher C. Burt , 9:50 PM GMT on March 15, 2012 The Great Blizzard of 1888; America’s Greatest Snow Disaster As temperatures soared into the mid-70°s this week in New York City, it is hard to believe this is the 124th anniversary of New York’s and America’s worst blizzard on record (and happens to share the same days as this year). The temperature in the city fell to 6° during the storm on March 13th, the coldest temperature ever measured there so late in the season. Few storms are as iconic as the famous blizzard of’88. It was the deadliest, snowiest, and most unusual winter storm in American annals. No storm of similar magnitude has ever occurred anywhere in the contiguous United States since. Over 400 perished including 200 in New York City alone, many literally buried in drifts in downtown Manhattan. Here is a recap of this famous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Very, already see subsidence being a major issue. Models didn't have much this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: Would be nice to break the March 1888 record in NYC, but I think that was underreported, Kocin has 32" in Brooklyn with that storm! https://maps.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=65 The Great Blizzard of 1888; America’s Greatest Snow Disaster By: Christopher C. Burt , 9:50 PM GMT on March 15, 2012 The Great Blizzard of 1888; America’s Greatest Snow Disaster As temperatures soared into the mid-70°s this week in New York City, it is hard to believe this is the 124th anniversary of New York’s and America’s worst blizzard on record (and happens to share the same days as this year). The temperature in the city fell to 6° during the storm on March 13th, the coldest temperature ever measured there so late in the season. Few storms are as iconic as the famous blizzard of’88. It was the deadliest, snowiest, and most unusual winter storm in American annals. No storm of similar magnitude has ever occurred anywhere in the contiguous United States since. Over 400 perished including 200 in New York City alone, many literally buried in drifts in downtown Manhattan. Here is a recap of this famous event. I need 1 more inch to break 30 and 11 more to break 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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