doncat Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Will be interesting to see what changes the nws makes with their next forecast package in 90 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 At what point do we stop tossing model runs? Because we've tossed about every model run from the 0z suite. Additionally, I would say it is concerning - as some mentioned - that literally every model of which I am aware cut back on snow totals (and some significantly). That is not a good sign. And by the way - current obs - hot, real hot. It's 38 degrees and going nowhere fast.Biggest change I see is dynamics farther East which reduces banding on W and NW side but also aids in less of a capture/stall and a quicker departing storm. Hopefully we can all manage a last second tug W before it escapes as models are quickly converging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Mt Holly updated their snow map it seems...unless this is just an interim update...all they did was shrink the zones a bit, so not much change...still the big numbers n central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The storm passed somewhat too far to the south and east to bring NYC into its heaviest snows. The storm's precipitation intensity was greatest over southeastern Pennsylvania. Select accumulations: Allentown: 5.0” Atlantic City: 6.0” Boston: 6.1” Bridgeport: 6.4” Cutchogue: 10.0” Harrisburg: Trace New London: 9.0” New York City: 10.0” Newark: 15.8” Philadelphia: 19.4” Portland: 8.6” Providence: 4.6” Wilmington: 12.0” Weird six inch difference between Newark and NYC, Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 06z 12K NAM looks great! CCB right over NYC area several times during the run. Long duration storm as well. 32K & 3K appears similar so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Mt Holly updated their snow map it seems...unless this is just an interim update...all they did was shrink the zones a bit, so not much change...still the big numbers n central.6z NAM looks awesome... Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Meteoropoulos said: 06z 12K NAM looks great! CCB right over NYC area several times during the run. Long duration storm as well. 32K & 3K appears similar so far. Great track too- I dont know why so many are obsessed with the 40/70 BM, our benchmark is actually where the latitude of ACY intersects with the longitude of MTP and this storms looks to pass right near that point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Nam is colder and all snow Enjoy the big snowstorm =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam is colder and all snow Enjoy the big snowstorm =) NAM is great for storms like this! How much precip does it print out and what's the duration of the storm on it? This does remind me a bit of Jan 2016 where the storm slowly edged north and the NAM was great there too. I hope we get 3" W.E. again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: NAM is great for storms like this! How much precip does it print out and what's the duration of the storm on it? This does remind me a bit of Jan 2016 where the storm slowly edged north and the NAM was great there too. I hope we get 3" W.E. again 20 hour storm and 1.50qpf for the city with more in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 20 hour storm and 1.50qpf for the city with more in LI. Oh nice, and these people who are worried about temps, temps will drop as soon as the snow starts. Maybe someone will get 20" out of this; I even saw a Mt Holly discussion about 25" being possible in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Paragon said: Oh nice, and these people who are worried about temps, temps will drop as soon as the snow starts. Maybe someone will get 20" out of this; I even saw a Mt Holly discussion about 25" being possible in NJ. Someone will get near 20 with the banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 33 minutes ago, pstar3182 said: Dry Very, already see subsidence being a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Someone will get near 20 with the banding Would be nice to break the March 1888 record in NYC, but I think that was underreported, Kocin has 32" in Brooklyn with that storm! https://maps.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=65 The Great Blizzard of 1888; America’s Greatest Snow Disaster By: Christopher C. Burt , 9:50 PM GMT on March 15, 2012 The Great Blizzard of 1888; America’s Greatest Snow Disaster As temperatures soared into the mid-70°s this week in New York City, it is hard to believe this is the 124th anniversary of New York’s and America’s worst blizzard on record (and happens to share the same days as this year). The temperature in the city fell to 6° during the storm on March 13th, the coldest temperature ever measured there so late in the season. Few storms are as iconic as the famous blizzard of’88. It was the deadliest, snowiest, and most unusual winter storm in American annals. No storm of similar magnitude has ever occurred anywhere in the contiguous United States since. Over 400 perished including 200 in New York City alone, many literally buried in drifts in downtown Manhattan. Here is a recap of this famous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Very, already see subsidence being a major issue. Models didn't have much this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: Would be nice to break the March 1888 record in NYC, but I think that was underreported, Kocin has 32" in Brooklyn with that storm! https://maps.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=65 The Great Blizzard of 1888; America’s Greatest Snow Disaster By: Christopher C. Burt , 9:50 PM GMT on March 15, 2012 The Great Blizzard of 1888; America’s Greatest Snow Disaster As temperatures soared into the mid-70°s this week in New York City, it is hard to believe this is the 124th anniversary of New York’s and America’s worst blizzard on record (and happens to share the same days as this year). The temperature in the city fell to 6° during the storm on March 13th, the coldest temperature ever measured there so late in the season. Few storms are as iconic as the famous blizzard of’88. It was the deadliest, snowiest, and most unusual winter storm in American annals. No storm of similar magnitude has ever occurred anywhere in the contiguous United States since. Over 400 perished including 200 in New York City alone, many literally buried in drifts in downtown Manhattan. Here is a recap of this famous event. I need 1 more inch to break 30 and 11 more to break 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: I need 1 more inch to break 30 and 11 more to break 40 Yeah we were worried about NYC reaching 30" this year but there is a real shot at 40" and this may not be the last storm for the season either. Could be chances of storm right through the first half of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: What are the new totals? I thought 12-18 was the ceiling for where they'd go. Just talking verbage in the WSW. Was 11 to 15 now its 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Just talking verbage in the WSW. Was 11 to 15 now its 12-18. Yeah I was kind of surprised in the Mt Holly statement for up to 25" of snow and 3" W.E. but I guess more precip is expected out that way (and colder temps.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Just talking verbage in the WSW. Was 11 to 15 now its 12-18. I think 8-12 Is a better call but whoever gets into the banding will get more than 12 inches and you will not know how the storm.is actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Rgem still looks great About 20 hours of moderate to heavy snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem still looks great About 20 hours of moderate to heavy snow for the area. Best banding is well east of the City. North shore looks like a good place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: Mt Holly updated their snow map it seems...unless this is just an interim update...all they did was shrink the zones a bit, so not much change...still the big numbers n central. Actually that's a fairly significant reduction across the board by a few to several inches...Anyone seen an updated map from Upton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Best banding is well east of the City. North shore looks like a good place to be. LI always gets the best banding but we will not know until the storm actually starts. Enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Jesus Christ people posting radar images when the storm havent even started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Jesus Christ people posting radar images when the storm havent even started Happens all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Well, no map, but Upton says 12-18" still for most of their CWA... National Weather Service New York NY 446 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper low continues to march toward the east coast, with coastal low development noted just east of the Delmarva. With an expected track of the sfc low near the 40N/70W benchmark along with strong deep lift and banded precip, the stage is set or a major winter storm for the area. Colder and drier air is in place when compared to previous events. Nam, and lesser extent GFS along with various ensemble members indicate slight warming aloft for a possible wintry mix over SE LI, and perhaps SE CT through the morning. The storm has slowed a bit, and heavier precip will allow for ample cooling to result in a changeover by afternoon over these eastern locales. Colder air will be pulled down from the north as the storm deepens. Elsewhere, NYC metro including NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley and into SW CT, would typically be in the bulls eye of heavier snow conceptually. Always hard to pinpoint any potential bands, but generally expect 12 to 18 inches across these locations if everything pans out as expected (track, thermal profiles, etc). Temps in the 30s remain steady or fall as the heavier snow commences. Snow ratios look to be at least 10 to 1, and even 13 to 1 or 15 to 1 is possible interior. The western extent of the precip shield should keep amounts well NW down slightly, but a foot or more is possible even up across those locations. Winds will be quite gusty, with 40+ mph at times possible. Blizzard conditions are possible at times, just not quite enough confidence for that upgrade to the hazard. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As the slow moving storm begins to pull away, heavier snow will taper from west to east tonight. Once again, 7-12 inches possible well NW, 12-18 around NYC metro and into SW CT, and slightly lower totals are expected east due to mixing initially, and lower snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 How can Upton call for 10:1 ratios with above freezing BL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS cuts way back too. May even be white rain if these light rates materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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