NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Pretty good 12Z runs so far. The initial wave has trended better and the trailing energy is a bit more consolidated as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 12Z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Height field is better Better 12z runs Let's see Ukie and euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 28 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z CMC Haven't looked at any snow maps yet, but GGEM looked like a decent hit for tuesday. Nice bump north, more in line with NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, winterwx21 said: Haven't looked at any snow maps yet, but GGEM looked like a decent hit for tuesday. Nice bump north, more in line with NAM. It's nice for jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's nice for jersey Yeah a good amount of snow for central Jersey, and unlike the 0z run it gets some accumulating snow up to northern Jersey and NYC. Nice improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: i remember it was the nam vs the other models in the 2016 blizzard the confluence for days was going to give the big totals to dc and philly.. nyc would not get much.. but the confluence was not as strong as originally thought and nyc hit the jackpot... You're right. That DID happen ... once that I can recall. It's extremely rare that the NAM alone verified without any other models along for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 NYC and C NJ do best with "squeeze" events. Somewhere between Cherry Hill and Morristown is going to do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Enigma said: NYC and C NJ do best with "squeeze" events. Somewhere between Cherry Hill and Morristown is going to do very well. How far north do you think the accumulating snow will get? 2016 coastal ct had 10 to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How far north do you think the accumulating snow will get? 2016 coastal ct had 10 to 15. Don't know. I wouldn't want to live north of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Enigma said: Don't know. I wouldn't want to live north of 84. Cool. I am coastal so south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 GEFS looks a little better. At least the south bleed stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Probably over correction with south trend. I always take climb into account. For example, it's much more likely that N NJ sees 12 in snow in March than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Probably over correction with south trend. I always take climb into account. For example, it's much more likely that N NJ sees 12 in snow in March than DC. Heard UKMET was really south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Heard UKMET was really south We do not want the same outcome as the New England crowd. No way our area sees 12 in and Boston sees 12 in for this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, Enigma said: We do not want the same outcome as the New England crowd. No way our area sees 12 in and Boston sees 12 in for this setup. Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Enigma said: We do not want the same outcome as the New England crowd. No way our area sees 12 in and Boston sees 12 in for this setup. Agreed, our area has a much better shot at this then they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Euro up next. Let’s hope the south trend is over. Having the UK south is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: Euro up next. Let’s hope the south trend is over. Having the UK south is concerning. The UKMET does have a SE bias at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I haven't seen the model run, but isn't it possible the NE forum said it was really south for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, NYCGreg said: I haven't seen the model run, but isn't it possible the NE forum said it was really south for them. Precip was posted in Middle Altantic forum. Central Jersey does good verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Euro is definitely a tad north of 00z, less press of confluent flow over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: Euro is definitely a tad north of 00z, less press of confluent flow over NE. We need to start seeing a bit more significant jumps soon, but the reversal trend is definitely promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 What's the precip map look like on Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: We need to start seeing a bit more significant jumps soon, but the reversal trend is definitely promising. For reference, the .5 inch QPF line is nearly to the PA/MD border with wave #1. 00z it was just south of South or around DC So def a good bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: We need to start seeing a bit more significant jumps soon, but the reversal trend is definitely promising. So we can have an SLP head through TTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Enigma said: So we can have an SLP head through TTN? I'm not as confident that this is a lock to come farther north. But you'd know better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: What's the precip map look like on Euro? 12z EURO is almost a carbon copy of GFS as far as how far north the snow gets. It makes it up to about Monmouth county. Very close. Hopefully it will trend north towards the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, winterwx21 said: 12z EURO is almost a carbon copy of GFS as far as how far north the snow gets. It makes it up to about Monmouth county. Very close. Hopefully it will trend north towards the NAM. It would be unprecedented for this winter to not have some shifting in QPF field over the next 60 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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