weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said: You know what will settle this? The actual storm. Tomorrow. We all know where you guys stand. I think we should leave it there, line drawn in the sand, and we'll come back on Weds night or Thurs morning and crown the victor of this dogged fight. Will the crown be made of weiners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The RGEM looking at the meteogram is probably 8-9 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way surface temps are an issue in this with the high to the north and that N-NE wind developing If mesos are overdoing the warmth, could they be underdoing the confluence? Could the Euro be onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sactown4 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I cant with some of you on here Every model has a 8-12 inch snow event for the area. The complaining on here is terrible. That's not true at all. Every model might have it at 10:1 while including sleet, but that's not realistic based on the runs. If you use Kuchera or snow depth, most models are below that range. The majority of the 5 boroughs, and especially Manhattan need it quite a bit cooler than the current runs are showing in order to get near 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way surface temps are an issue in this with the high to the north and that N-NE wind developing What do you make of your colleague's concern about 1/2 in rates? This is not meant to make it a contest, I'm more interested in how each of you come to your conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Oh hey, just had the privilege of deleting about 20 posts of garbage and bickering. Keep it civil and analysis based or I will delete it. This is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Gfs has all snow for NYC and further east than the Nam. LI gets the big bands. Wpc threw out the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Oh hey, just had the privilege of deleting about 20 posts of garbage and bickering. Keep it civil and analysis based or I will delete it. This is ridiculous. Looked like more than 20. Guys stop it and pick up the quality of your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: He has support from at least one meteorologist here....I have seen enough March storms fizzle that I am not completely convinced something won't go wrong ( or right if you prefer less snow, as most people do ). I'm quite weary from reading double digit prognostications over the years that went nowhere. That said, since a workday is already blown tomorrow, I hope we get at least a solid 6 inches, which would be perhaps my highest this year. And there are other meterologists (I include JM in there whose opinion I hold with the utmost respect) and most of the models that say otherwise. Anyway, I'm going to take this further because it's banter but yes, there is bust potential both ways as is the case with most storms for us on the coast. However, this one seems like it'll be different than your normal late March storm so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: hearing the HRRR is warm..any truth to that Upper 30s warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Yea like I am the only one that thinks nyc will get alot of snow. There are plenty of Mets who think so also and of course on other forums . I don't get why some people are being conservative . We will see Right now NWS agrees with you too. I think we have seen some storms not deliver and some wobbles in the models are making people question it. Me, I don't know enough about them to say, I can only go by what people are posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, kat5hurricane said: And there are other meterologists (I include JM in there whose opinion I hold with the utmost respect) and most of the models that say otherwise. Anyway, I'm going to take this further because it's banter but yes, there is bust potential both ways as is the case with most storms for us on the coast. Sure. I mean we can't predict an outcome 100 %. But this is confusing for those of us without the training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm hearing the GFS is a crush job. I'm on my phone would like to see some maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Mophstymeo said: Partly derived, I think, from our experiences with the last three storms. Hey, I'm analyzing . . . human behavior. I get it. Our issue is temps. In NYC/Hoboken, you really have to get temps below freezing to get accumulations going. Well, right now we have temps in the upper 30s, and the models seem to indicate warmer temps than previously advertised. If this verifies, it's going to be the temperatures moreso than the banding that will present issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I would give more weight to the mesos at this range. IE NAM and RGEM. The GFS has been all over the place, so has the German and the GGEM. The Euro has been consistently too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: Right now NWS agrees with you too. I think we have seen some storms not deliver and some wobbles in the models are making people question it. Me, I don't know enough about them to say, I can only go by what people are posting. You are right We have been screwed this month and everyone is frustrated but this storm is going to be colder for the coast than the last 3. Every model except the Nam and rgem to an extent have mostly snow tomorrow and a long duration of it. Gfs has 8-12 for the area with banding in LI. It is further east than the Nam . Inland areas get less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 And for gods sake, stop using the HRRR 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I would give more weight to the mesos at this range. IE NAM and RGEM. The GFS has been all over the place, so has the German and the GGEM. The Euro has been consistently too far offshore. Nam also has been all over and Wpc just tossed it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS drier except for E LI. Clear to see what's going on. Guess its Nap time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: And for gods sake, stop using the HRRR 2m temps Especially at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 00z German gives everyone here over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: GFS drier except for E LI. Clear to see what's going on. Guess its Nap time... Drier for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: 00z German gives everyone here over a foot. Nam is nice for you. Rgem and gfs are further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I would give more weight to the mesos at this range. IE NAM and RGEM. The GFS has been all over the place, so has the German and the GGEM. The Euro has been consistently too far offshore. It's hard to give the NAM a ton of weight when it is bouncing around like a ping pong ball from run to run. There is no consistency there. I'm not saying toss it - I mean, it shows a great outcome for the NYC area anyway - but it's hard to trust a model when there are huge run to run variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nam also has been all over and Wpc just tossed it lol They can toss it, doesn’t make it right. It’s wobbled some, but hasn’t moved much the last 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 What exactly has happened between 18z and 0z for computer models to cut qpf in half. Duration looks great I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam is nice for you. Rgem and gfs are further east. The RGEM was the same for me as it was for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: It's hard to give the NAM a ton of weight when it is bouncing around like a ping pong ball from run to run. There is no consistency there. I'm not saying toss it - I mean, it shows a great outcome for the NYC area anyway - but it's hard to trust a model when there are huge run to run variations. It really hasn’t changed since 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just remember what low rates provided last storm, the mega CCB as modeled early in the day is disappearing. May last longer but light snow this time of year won't cut the mustard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.