weatherfreeeeak Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 @SACRUS I missed your model summaries this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 0z NAM from 8pm Wed- 2am Thurs. Us interior folk are riding it hard! Lets go NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 0z HRDPS looks pretty good for most. Deform band over LI as it pulls away. 10"+ for most at 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Nibor said: 0z HRDPS looks pretty good for most. Deform band over LI as it pulls away. 10"+ for most at 10:1. I told my buddies at work that my prediction is 10 for the immediate metro area. It’s the middle ground between the weenies (and NWS in this case) and the debbie D’s. Will stick to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Enigma said: 1/2 inch per hour rates tomorrow will not get it done in the city. intense rates would definitely help but even if the rates are 1/2 inch per hour if it is cold = it will stick anywhere. We will soon know either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: I told my buddies at work that my prediction is 10 for the immediate metro area. It’s the middle ground between the weenies (and NWS in this case) and the debbie D’s. Will stick to it. 10 might be the lucky number. I have no idea myself. We will see how it all works out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 56 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: The UKMET pretty much has the max in the same area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said: . Shadow that is from 6 pm isn't there a more recent map ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 42 minutes ago, Enigma said: I do think it will snow heavily most places tomorrow. I simply don't buy into 6-12 in. amounts. For example...Newark is not going to see 14 in. 4-6 in.? Sure. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: that looks nice, but what did the 12z had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, kingbaus said: that looks nice, but what did the 12z had? Drier than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: Drier than 12z. Tonights trend has been drier expect for the nam. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, snywx said: Drier than 12z. Is it drier for everyone or drier for the interior? Because there seems to be some confusion when that stuff gets posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Is it drier for everyone or drier for the interior? Because there seems to be some confusion when that stuff gets posted. Drier for everyone. Precip amounts are still decent for the coast, LE 1"+ in and around NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, swamplover56 said: I give up rjay or someone else please pist the ncep rdfd THAT WAS ISSUED AT 3z read elsewhere that that time stamp was not correct and it was an older forecast map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 So, I know the pros always say not to look at snowfall maps, but I'm not expert enough to analyze upper air maps and trends and figure out what's going on, but I am pretty good at pattern recognition and nearly every 00Z model - GFS, UK, CMC, RDPS (RGEM), and HRPDS (high res RPDS) - showed a modest to occasionally significant decrease in snowfall vs. 18Z or 12Z. Only the NAM 12 km and 3 km looked similar, at least for CNJ/NNJ/NYC (and more to the north). Is this truly meaningful? I think it is and others have been saying it is. I mostly am wondering if this will be the extent of the reduction or might we be facing more? At some point, if we don't get near the 1-2" per hour rates being advertised for 2 days now, we're going to see a fair amount of white rain, even with better surface temps than the previous nor-easters and that will reduce accumulations even more (and if we don't get as good a level of crystal growth, we also might not reach 10:1 as I was hoping, given good column thermal profiles). Don't get me wrong - getting 6-10" in March would still be pretty damn cool - but not as cool as the NWS 12-18" forecast for most of the area. Anyone want to pull me back off the ledge? Maybe the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Euro looks east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Euro looks east Sounds like it was pretty similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 0z Euro looks to have 6-8" for the City/coast, 3-5" for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, RU848789 said: So, I know the pros always say not to look at snowfall maps, but I'm not expert enough to analyze upper air maps and trends and figure out what's going on, but I am pretty good at pattern recognition and nearly every 00Z model - GFS, UK, CMC, RDPS (RGEM), and HRPDS (high res RPDS) - showed a modest to occasionally significant decrease in snowfall vs. 18Z or 12Z. Only the NAM 12 km and 3 km looked similar, at least for CNJ/NNJ/NYC (and more to the north). Is this truly meaningful? I think it is and others have been saying it is. I mostly am wondering if this will be the extent of the reduction or might we be facing more? At some point, if we don't get near the 1-2" per hour rates being advertised for 2 days now, we're going to see a fair amount of white rain, even with better surface temps than the previous nor-easters and that will reduce accumulations even more (and if we don't get as good a level of crystal growth, we also might not reach 10:1 as I was hoping, given good column thermal profiles). Don't get me wrong - getting 6-10" in March would still be pretty damn cool - but not as cool as the NWS 12-18" forecast for most of the area. Anyone want to pull me back off the ledge? Maybe the Euro? Euro wants to give you a push and say have a nice flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I could honestly care less what the Euro or other global models show at this point. Nowcasting and the short range models are the way to go and even the short range models don't always get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 All I'm going to say at this point is if the city busts it's going to be because of boundary temps and not a lack of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Euro wants to give you a push and say have a nice flight This might bring him back: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Most of the mesoscale models still look very good for us. We'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: All I'm going to say at this point is if the city busts it's going to be because of boundary temps and not a lack of QPF. I will admit I am currently a bit concerned about temps, I thought it would have been at least a few degrees colder by now. The storm is just starting to get cranking so we will see what happens. I still believe once things do get going though that the snow will be lighter/drier then what we had earlier in the month that caused all of the power outages. We will see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z Euro looks to have 6-8" for the City/coast, 3-5" for the interior. Ouch. Not what you wanted just prior to a historical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Animal said: Ouch. Not what you eanted just prior to a historical storm. Euro is a big outlier and should be tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is a big outlier and should be tossed At what point do we stop tossing model runs? Because we've tossed about every model run from the 0z suite. Additionally, I would say it is concerning - as some mentioned - that literally every model of which I am aware cut back on snow totals (and some significantly). That is not a good sign. And by the way - current obs - hot, real hot. It's 38 degrees and going nowhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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