NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Mophstymeo said: Partly derived, I think, from our experiences with the last three storms. Hey, I'm analyzing . . . human behavior. I get it. Our issue is temps. In NYC/Hoboken, you really have to get temps below freezing to get accumulations going. Well, right now we have temps in the upper 30s, and the models seem to indicate warmer temps than previously advertised. If this verifies, it's going to be the temperatures moreso than the banding that will present issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I would give more weight to the mesos at this range. IE NAM and RGEM. The GFS has been all over the place, so has the German and the GGEM. The Euro has been consistently too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: Right now NWS agrees with you too. I think we have seen some storms not deliver and some wobbles in the models are making people question it. Me, I don't know enough about them to say, I can only go by what people are posting. You are right We have been screwed this month and everyone is frustrated but this storm is going to be colder for the coast than the last 3. Every model except the Nam and rgem to an extent have mostly snow tomorrow and a long duration of it. Gfs has 8-12 for the area with banding in LI. It is further east than the Nam . Inland areas get less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 And for gods sake, stop using the HRRR 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I would give more weight to the mesos at this range. IE NAM and RGEM. The GFS has been all over the place, so has the German and the GGEM. The Euro has been consistently too far offshore. Nam also has been all over and Wpc just tossed it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS drier except for E LI. Clear to see what's going on. Guess its Nap time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: And for gods sake, stop using the HRRR 2m temps Especially at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 00z German gives everyone here over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: GFS drier except for E LI. Clear to see what's going on. Guess its Nap time... Drier for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: 00z German gives everyone here over a foot. Nam is nice for you. Rgem and gfs are further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I would give more weight to the mesos at this range. IE NAM and RGEM. The GFS has been all over the place, so has the German and the GGEM. The Euro has been consistently too far offshore. It's hard to give the NAM a ton of weight when it is bouncing around like a ping pong ball from run to run. There is no consistency there. I'm not saying toss it - I mean, it shows a great outcome for the NYC area anyway - but it's hard to trust a model when there are huge run to run variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nam also has been all over and Wpc just tossed it lol They can toss it, doesn’t make it right. It’s wobbled some, but hasn’t moved much the last 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 What exactly has happened between 18z and 0z for computer models to cut qpf in half. Duration looks great I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam is nice for you. Rgem and gfs are further east. The RGEM was the same for me as it was for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: It's hard to give the NAM a ton of weight when it is bouncing around like a ping pong ball from run to run. There is no consistency there. I'm not saying toss it - I mean, it shows a great outcome for the NYC area anyway - but it's hard to trust a model when there are huge run to run variations. It really hasn’t changed since 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just remember what low rates provided last storm, the mega CCB as modeled early in the day is disappearing. May last longer but light snow this time of year won't cut the mustard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: John is pumped for this event He thinks we will see plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It's laughable the thermal profile differences between the NAM and GFS at this range... doesn't make a difference City westward, but from the Nassau/Suffolk border eastward it starts to matter more and more each mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeTwentyFour Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Why am I still worried about the south shore of the nassau county not panning out. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The GGEM is a slightly wetter version of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: John is pumped for this event He thinks we will see plenty of snow. 6-9" officially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, ZeeTwentyFour said: Why am I still worried about the south shore of the nassau county not panning out. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk I think Nassau is fine temp wise. I think it’s possible though that the best snows set up just to their west however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: It's laughable the thermal profile differences between the NAM and GFS at this range... doesn't make a difference City westward, but from the Nassau/Suffolk border eastward it starts to matter more and more each mile And possibly from the Queens/Nassau border. Some of the larger vendors have lowered their snowfall outlooks in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GGEM is a slightly wetter version of the GFS. Yeah, a slightly tuned down version of its 12z run. Didn't change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 For the love of god someone please post the nws official forecast map that was just put out 10 mins ago everyone please just look at that take a deep breath get off the computer for 10 mins and come back. This is their official forecast after watching the same oz runs we have all just watched I can’t pist in my mobile but it’s 12-16” for virtually the entire nyc metro. I’m sorry rant over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: For the love of god someone please post the nws official forecast map that was just put out 10 mins ago everyone please just look at that take a deep breath get off the computer for 10 mins and come back. This is their official forecast after watching the same oz runs we have all just watched I can’t pist in my mobile but it’s 12-16” for virtually the entire nyc metro. I’m sorry rant over I don't think the doubters will find much solace in that, given some of the recent experiences. I think its probably time to let things roll and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: For the love of god someone please post the nws official forecast map that was just put out 10 mins ago everyone please just look at that take a deep breath get off the computer for 10 mins and come back. This is their official forecast after watching the same oz runs we have all just watched I can’t pist in my mobile but it’s 12-16” for virtually the entire nyc metro. I’m sorry rant over I give up rjay or someone else please pist the ncep rdfd THAT WAS ISSUED AT 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I do think it will snow heavily most places tomorrow. I simply don't buy into 6-12 in. amounts. For example...Newark is not going to see 14 in. 4-6 in.? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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