MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RGEM has 10-12 inches for the coast and slightly more on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 In all honesty the mid level presentation looks as good to me as any late season storm, so this is one that should produce areawide I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 2-3 hours of sleet and then moderate to heavy snow for 15 hours. Where are you looking? TT still hasn't loaded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 2-3 hours of sleet and then moderate to heavy snow for 15 hours. While this is true, comparing it to the 18z I don't see the super heavy rates the older run had... seems to me like it may have cut back QPF wise, though we won't know for sure until we get the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Where are you looking? TT still hasn't loaded it. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: RGEM has 10-12 inches for the coast and slightly more on LI So it decreased. 10-12" at 10:1? If so figure 6-8" middle of the storm the BL is bad on it too. (Only panels that fully loaded on TT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: While this is true, comparing it to the 18z I don't see the super heavy rates the older run had... seems to me like it may have cut back QPF wise, though we won't know for sure until we get the map Stormvista snow map has 10-12 for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: So it decreased. 10-12" at 10:1? If so figure 6-8" middle of the storm the BL is bad on it too. (Only panels that fully loaded on TT) You have been on a roll tonight being a negative nancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Seeing the RGEM east of the Nam is encouraging. People shouldnt freak out if we see some sleet tomorrow morning. It will change to snow and accumulate. Should be a fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: You have been on a roll tonight being a negative nancy Someone has to be realistic. People throwing around 18 and 20" figures like it's boxing day or 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Seeing the RGEM east of the Nam is encouraging. People shouldnt freak out if we see some sleet tomorrow morning. It will change to snow and accumulate. Should be a fun storm. RGEM showed NYC in subsidence too. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: RGEM showed NYC in subsidence too. Not good. Dude, let the storm play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: RGEM showed NYC in subsidence too. Not good. You need a nap. That being said, RGEM definitely not preferable, though would still be a great storm for this late in the season. It doesn't have the deform band as far west this run. Crazy that there's still this much a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Honestly, take your NWS range and divide by 2. Seems to me that extreme banding is less likely and duration will be longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: RGEM showed NYC in subsidence too. Not good. Just go to sleep RGEM has 10-12 inches What are you expecting ? Every post from you have been bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Both the 0z RGEM and 0z NAM at hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Just go to sleep RGEM has 10-12 inches What are you expecting ? Every post from you have been bad. No it doesn't. That's at 10:1 with less than stellar rates and a good portion of it above freezing nearing April. I shouldn't "take a nap" because I don't have dillusions of grandeur thinking this is an 18" storm. Sorry I'm not wishcasting like some clearly are. You can't just tell someone to go away because you don't want to face reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I think it's no big deal it's just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1/2 inch per hour rates tomorrow will not get it done in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This was a decent RGEM run for NYC. Model has around 24 hours of snow and it's all but impossible to predict where the heaviest bands will set up 12 hours in advance. The good thing is that we don't see models swinging the storm out to sea or hugging the coast too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: 1/2 inch per hour rates tomorrow will not get it done in the city tomorrow. With temps near freezing ? I think we will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, kingbaus said: STFU you're clueless it's just noise. hello its not just noise, how can you say that...models all different outputs seemingly shifting..just a small shift means alot in March, its not January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, winterwarlock said: the pavement cares I cant with some of you on here Every model has a 8-12 inch snow event for the area. The complaining on here is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RGEM is absolute beauty. Hashtagthisiscoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: RGEM is absolute beauty. Hashtagthisiscoming Rgem has been rock steady. Colder than the Nam and better for coastal areas. Did you see the German ? 15 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1/2 inch per hour rates tomorrow will not get it done in the city tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I see no way surface temps are an issue in this with the high to the north and that N-NE wind developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The UKMET has probably been the most consistent model on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: You seem to be taking an extreme stance for some reason. Who is predicting 18"? I don't see the need to call out people for wearing "snow goggles" just as I don't see the need for people telling you to "take a nap". Too much bickering (which unfortunately I decided to partake in) and not enough sound analysis. He has support from at least one meteorologist here....I have seen enough March storms fizzle that I am not completely convinced something won't go wrong ( or right if you prefer less snow, as most people do ). I'm quite weary from reading double digit prognostications over the years that went nowhere. That said, since a workday is already blown tomorrow, I hope we get at least a solid 6 inches, which would be perhaps my highest this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: Have not heard much from the UKIE today, when is it running? Another hour or so. It looked great at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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