Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Honestly, take your NWS range and divide by 2. Seems to me that extreme banding is less likely and duration will be longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: RGEM showed NYC in subsidence too. Not good. Just go to sleep RGEM has 10-12 inches What are you expecting ? Every post from you have been bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Both the 0z RGEM and 0z NAM at hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Just go to sleep RGEM has 10-12 inches What are you expecting ? Every post from you have been bad. No it doesn't. That's at 10:1 with less than stellar rates and a good portion of it above freezing nearing April. I shouldn't "take a nap" because I don't have dillusions of grandeur thinking this is an 18" storm. Sorry I'm not wishcasting like some clearly are. You can't just tell someone to go away because you don't want to face reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I think it's no big deal it's just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1/2 inch per hour rates tomorrow will not get it done in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This was a decent RGEM run for NYC. Model has around 24 hours of snow and it's all but impossible to predict where the heaviest bands will set up 12 hours in advance. The good thing is that we don't see models swinging the storm out to sea or hugging the coast too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: 1/2 inch per hour rates tomorrow will not get it done in the city tomorrow. With temps near freezing ? I think we will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, kingbaus said: STFU you're clueless it's just noise. hello its not just noise, how can you say that...models all different outputs seemingly shifting..just a small shift means alot in March, its not January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, winterwarlock said: the pavement cares I cant with some of you on here Every model has a 8-12 inch snow event for the area. The complaining on here is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RGEM is absolute beauty. Hashtagthisiscoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: RGEM is absolute beauty. Hashtagthisiscoming Rgem has been rock steady. Colder than the Nam and better for coastal areas. Did you see the German ? 15 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1/2 inch per hour rates tomorrow will not get it done in the city tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I see no way surface temps are an issue in this with the high to the north and that N-NE wind developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The UKMET has probably been the most consistent model on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: You seem to be taking an extreme stance for some reason. Who is predicting 18"? I don't see the need to call out people for wearing "snow goggles" just as I don't see the need for people telling you to "take a nap". Too much bickering (which unfortunately I decided to partake in) and not enough sound analysis. He has support from at least one meteorologist here....I have seen enough March storms fizzle that I am not completely convinced something won't go wrong ( or right if you prefer less snow, as most people do ). I'm quite weary from reading double digit prognostications over the years that went nowhere. That said, since a workday is already blown tomorrow, I hope we get at least a solid 6 inches, which would be perhaps my highest this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: Have not heard much from the UKIE today, when is it running? Another hour or so. It looked great at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said: You know what will settle this? The actual storm. Tomorrow. We all know where you guys stand. I think we should leave it there, line drawn in the sand, and we'll come back on Weds night or Thurs morning and crown the victor of this dogged fight. Will the crown be made of weiners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The RGEM looking at the meteogram is probably 8-9 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way surface temps are an issue in this with the high to the north and that N-NE wind developing If mesos are overdoing the warmth, could they be underdoing the confluence? Could the Euro be onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sactown4 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I cant with some of you on here Every model has a 8-12 inch snow event for the area. The complaining on here is terrible. That's not true at all. Every model might have it at 10:1 while including sleet, but that's not realistic based on the runs. If you use Kuchera or snow depth, most models are below that range. The majority of the 5 boroughs, and especially Manhattan need it quite a bit cooler than the current runs are showing in order to get near 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way surface temps are an issue in this with the high to the north and that N-NE wind developing What do you make of your colleague's concern about 1/2 in rates? This is not meant to make it a contest, I'm more interested in how each of you come to your conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Oh hey, just had the privilege of deleting about 20 posts of garbage and bickering. Keep it civil and analysis based or I will delete it. This is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Gfs has all snow for NYC and further east than the Nam. LI gets the big bands. Wpc threw out the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Oh hey, just had the privilege of deleting about 20 posts of garbage and bickering. Keep it civil and analysis based or I will delete it. This is ridiculous. Looked like more than 20. Guys stop it and pick up the quality of your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: He has support from at least one meteorologist here....I have seen enough March storms fizzle that I am not completely convinced something won't go wrong ( or right if you prefer less snow, as most people do ). I'm quite weary from reading double digit prognostications over the years that went nowhere. That said, since a workday is already blown tomorrow, I hope we get at least a solid 6 inches, which would be perhaps my highest this year. And there are other meterologists (I include JM in there whose opinion I hold with the utmost respect) and most of the models that say otherwise. Anyway, I'm going to take this further because it's banter but yes, there is bust potential both ways as is the case with most storms for us on the coast. However, this one seems like it'll be different than your normal late March storm so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: hearing the HRRR is warm..any truth to that Upper 30s warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Yea like I am the only one that thinks nyc will get alot of snow. There are plenty of Mets who think so also and of course on other forums . I don't get why some people are being conservative . We will see Right now NWS agrees with you too. I think we have seen some storms not deliver and some wobbles in the models are making people question it. Me, I don't know enough about them to say, I can only go by what people are posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, kat5hurricane said: And there are other meterologists (I include JM in there whose opinion I hold with the utmost respect) and most of the models that say otherwise. Anyway, I'm going to take this further because it's banter but yes, there is bust potential both ways as is the case with most storms for us on the coast. Sure. I mean we can't predict an outcome 100 %. But this is confusing for those of us without the training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm hearing the GFS is a crush job. I'm on my phone would like to see some maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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