Doorman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 where will mr. chrsitie ride this one out???? http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/03/phil_murphy_declares_a_state_of_emergency_ahead_of_new_snowstorms_set_to_hit_nj.html#incart_breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: They are just so bullish immediately after being burned. There forecasting something is literally unprecedented in NYC history. Calling for greater than 10:1 ratios with a borderline BL and less than stellar mid and upper level temps is suspect. If They cited they believe there will be more liquid than guidance suggests I could get behind that. We had 80 degrees in February, we had 2 hurricanes up here in a couple year span and we've had 4 huge nor'easters in the span of the last couple of weeks. "Unprecedented" events are the new normal around here in this decade so 10:1 ratios in a late March storm will certainly not be shocking. The ground is cold, the airmass is cold, there will be a strong storm offshore drawing in its own cold air with tons of mositure so if NYC gets into banding 12+ inches plus is certainly possible. Climo gets thrown out in situations like these. Usually I'm on the conservative side like you but this storm has a good chance to deliver historical late March totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Really? Read Mt. Holly 4pm write up. 8-10:1 in city area, and 11-12:1 interior. Philly is further inland first of all, less UHI, yeah Sussex can maybe get 11:1(highly doubt it even there during daylight). I don't care about there. NYC will IMO be 8:1 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: We had 80 degrees in February, we had 2 hurricanes up here in a couple year span and we've had 4 huge nor'easters in the span of the last couple of weeks. "Unprecedented" events are the new normal around here in this decade so 10:1 ratios in a late March storm will certainly not be shocking. The ground is cold, the airmass is cold, there will be a strong storm offshore drawing in its own cold air so if NYC gets into banding 12+ inches plus is certainly possible. Climo gets thrown out in situations like these Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, and what did you get last week after being so confident it wouldn't be slop? There's reason why NYC has NEVER had a 12" storm this late... you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot... 1868... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I hope my old stomping grounds really cash in and I think they will (NE Bergen County). The last nor'easter was for us up here with about 18" and more just west of here. This one is your storm with a nice cold airmass in place. Only expecting around 6in here and that might be pushing it. Either way this is looking like an historic storm for spring in NYC and points south and west. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot... 1868... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/ Newark and NYC are so close to each other, they have the same climate and if one can get over a foot certainly the other can. History is against us, but it is not impossible and while I would not be shocked we see a lower end storm of 6 or so( many stations going with 6-12 ) I would not be shocked if it went the other way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 33 minutes ago, Mancave25 said: What does tssn stand for It’s the security code for the keypad to heaven’s gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone. If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Philly is further inland first of all, less UHI, yeah Sussex can maybe get 11:1(highly doubt it even there during daylight). I don't care about there. NYC will IMO be 8:1 at best. 24 hours ago you said it wouldn't snow much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 What time does the snow get cranking down the shore? I'm north coastal Monmouth County. Any chance at a foot down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: One map is a range. The other is a point estimate. One can choose either. TY Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, uncle W said: you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot... 1868... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/ How much of NYC was farmland 150 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: What time does the snow get cranking down the shore? I'm north coastal Monmouth County. Any chance at a foot down here? Frankie..is it too hard to scroll back a page or two before ya post??? your answer is there!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March. Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so. If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month The weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March. Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so. If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month he weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Philly is further inland first of all, less UHI, yeah Sussex can maybe get 11:1(highly doubt it even there during daylight). I don't care about there. NYC will IMO be 8:1 at best. Thinking about it, I agree with you. Even out here, ratios will probably be only 5-7:1. And in the city maybe 3-4:1. Especially with daylight savings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone. If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn If Western LI got screwed and dryslotted would they still get a half a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone. If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn You've gotta be kidding me. I don't know if I can take a 4th straight storm of getting screwed, now that would be unprecedented for western L.I. to be in the screw zone for the 4th straight time while historical totals pile up north, south, east and west of the area. I might have to take a couple of winters of stormtracking off if this happened again haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Lol some things never change in this forum. 1-There will always be the pessimistic debbie downers trying to downplay things with snow trying to find and hang onto the model with the least amount of snow or some other issue (rates/sunangle) and it's always the usual suspects and 2-Franklin will ask how much for northern coastal Monmouth county. Every storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I put a lot of thought into this, final call Inside the pink line - 1-3" Inside the light blue line - 2-5" Inside the dark blue line - 4-8" Inside the green line - 5-10" Inside the red line - 6-12" Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts. oh I would sign on for this...please be right...I dont need to plow 12-18 inches. I think Mt Holly is way overdone and your totals are very reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: If Western LI got screwed and dryslotted would they still get a half a foot? I would think so. I think between 21-01Z though there will be some sort of subsistent area around the heavy banding. If you shift it a bit west of where most guidance shows it right now it puts the heavy banding near or just west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: oh I would sign on for this...please be right...I dont need to plow 12-18 inches. I think Mt Holly is way overdone and your totals are very reasonable Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The last thing I'll say ratio related for now is if NYC sees a foot which is very possible it will be due to loads of LE, not because of ratios. I want a shutdown storm as much as the next guy. Let's root on the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: The weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop Uh ? The storm is suppressed on the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: The last thing I'll say ratio related for now is if NYC sees a foot which is very possible it will be due to loads of LE, not because of ratios. I want a shutdown storm as much as the next guy. Let's root on the ARW. Let's root for the Ukie , HRDPS , RPM , Nam , Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: Based on what? Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Uh ? The storm is suppressed on the models right now. knowing the trend this month it will be brought back by the models and we'll have Nor'Easter # 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, sferic said: knowing the trend this month it will be brought back by the models and we'll have Nor'Easter # 5 That one is more likely to just dampen and die in the ensuing runs than come north. It’s probably more likely to go south than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: That one is more likely to just dampen and die in the ensuing runs than come north. It’s probably more likely to go south than anything I agree The flow isn't conducive for amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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