Doorman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:58 AM, Franklin0529 said: What time does the snow get cranking down the shore? I'm north coastal Monmouth County. Any chance at a foot down here? Expand Frankie..is it too hard to scroll back a page or two before ya post??? your answer is there!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 11:44 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March. Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so. If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month Expand The weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 11:44 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March. Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so. If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month Expand he weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:48 AM, Ericjcrash said: Philly is further inland first of all, less UHI, yeah Sussex can maybe get 11:1(highly doubt it even there during daylight). I don't care about there. NYC will IMO be 8:1 at best. Expand Thinking about it, I agree with you. Even out here, ratios will probably be only 5-7:1. And in the city maybe 3-4:1. Especially with daylight savings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:57 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone. If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn Expand If Western LI got screwed and dryslotted would they still get a half a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:57 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone. If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn Expand You've gotta be kidding me. I don't know if I can take a 4th straight storm of getting screwed, now that would be unprecedented for western L.I. to be in the screw zone for the 4th straight time while historical totals pile up north, south, east and west of the area. I might have to take a couple of winters of stormtracking off if this happened again haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Lol some things never change in this forum. 1-There will always be the pessimistic debbie downers trying to downplay things with snow trying to find and hang onto the model with the least amount of snow or some other issue (rates/sunangle) and it's always the usual suspects and 2-Franklin will ask how much for northern coastal Monmouth county. Every storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:04 PM, NJwx85 said: I put a lot of thought into this, final call Inside the pink line - 1-3" Inside the light blue line - 2-5" Inside the dark blue line - 4-8" Inside the green line - 5-10" Inside the red line - 6-12" Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts. Expand oh I would sign on for this...please be right...I dont need to plow 12-18 inches. I think Mt Holly is way overdone and your totals are very reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:04 AM, sferic said: If Western LI got screwed and dryslotted would they still get a half a foot? Expand I would think so. I think between 21-01Z though there will be some sort of subsistent area around the heavy banding. If you shift it a bit west of where most guidance shows it right now it puts the heavy banding near or just west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:07 AM, winterwarlock said: oh I would sign on for this...please be right...I dont need to plow 12-18 inches. I think Mt Holly is way overdone and your totals are very reasonable Expand Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The last thing I'll say ratio related for now is if NYC sees a foot which is very possible it will be due to loads of LE, not because of ratios. I want a shutdown storm as much as the next guy. Let's root on the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:03 AM, NewYorkweatherfan said: The weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop Expand Uh ? The storm is suppressed on the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:08 AM, Ericjcrash said: The last thing I'll say ratio related for now is if NYC sees a foot which is very possible it will be due to loads of LE, not because of ratios. I want a shutdown storm as much as the next guy. Let's root on the ARW. Expand Let's root for the Ukie , HRDPS , RPM , Nam , Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:08 AM, kat5hurricane said: Based on what? Expand Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:08 AM, Snow88 said: Uh ? The storm is suppressed on the models right now. Expand knowing the trend this month it will be brought back by the models and we'll have Nor'Easter # 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:11 AM, sferic said: knowing the trend this month it will be brought back by the models and we'll have Nor'Easter # 5 Expand That one is more likely to just dampen and die in the ensuing runs than come north. It’s probably more likely to go south than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:12 AM, SnowGoose69 said: That one is more likely to just dampen and die in the ensuing runs than come north. It’s probably more likely to go south than anything Expand I agree The flow isn't conducive for amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:03 AM, sussexcountyobs said: Thinking about it, I agree with you. Even out here, ratios will probably be only 5-7:1. And in the city maybe 3-4:1. Especially with daylight savings. Expand Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:10 AM, Snow88 said: Nothing Expand Same crap every storm. Honestly, when does he not think snow forecasts are overdone? If Mt. Holly was going conservative and warmer he would be all over here quoting about it and them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:14 AM, Drz1111 said: Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms Expand Unless it's a strong storm Sun angle don't mean anything with good rates and cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:14 AM, Drz1111 said: Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms Expand The sun is out for the same amount of time. The DST has nothing to die with sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:17 AM, mikem81 said: The sun is out for the same amount of time. The DST has nothing to die with sun angle. Expand I think (hope) he is being sarcastic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:17 AM, mikem81 said: The sun is out for the same amount of time. The DST has nothing to die with sun angle. Expand Thank you. It's all relative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:14 AM, Drz1111 said: Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms Expand Please tell me you aren't serious. Our laws dont effect mother nature. We haven't added any extra daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:14 AM, Drz1111 said: Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms Expand daylight savings has nothing to do with it-it's darker an hour later in the morning, we simply moved the hour of light to the evening. It's still 12 hrs of light with or without DST. But yes, there will be some issues b/w 10am and 2-3pm if it's not coming down heavy. Luckily the best snows are from 3-9pm or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I knew back in 01 or 02 when they advanced DST up to March they were never going back. They claimed it was temporary due to rising energy costs but I said we would never refer back to early April. Don’t forget that prior to 1987 it was late April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:14 AM, Drz1111 said: Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms Expand Bingo! I mean: I just filled out my bingo card checking off the dumbest possible posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:21 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I knew back in 01 or 02 when they advanced DST up to March they were never going back. They claimed it was temporary due to rising energy costs but I said we would never refer back to early April. Don’t forget that prior to 1987 it was late April Expand some states are trying to get rid of it altogether (MA and FL). They want to stay on DST the whole year. The move to March was in 2007. It was part of an energy bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:24 AM, Brian5671 said: some states are trying to get rid of it altogether (MA and FL). They want to stay on DST the whole year. The move to March was in 2007. It was part of an energy bill. Expand Florida is getting fights from western areas since they’d have like a 905am sunrise in parts of October and March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 1:14 AM, Drz1111 said: Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms Expand Had me going for a minute there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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