Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,701
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Sfagewi
    Newest Member
    Sfagewi
    Joined

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

What time does the snow get cranking down the shore?  I'm north coastal Monmouth County.  Any chance at a foot down here?

Frankie..is it too hard to scroll back a page or two before ya post???

your answer is there!!!!!! ;)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March.  Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so.  If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month 

The weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March.  Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so.  If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month 

he weekend storm looks much warmer and therefore they'll slop

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Philly is further inland first of all, less UHI, yeah Sussex can maybe get 11:1(highly doubt it even there during daylight). I don't care about there. NYC will IMO be 8:1 at best.

Thinking about it, I agree with you. Even out here, ratios will probably be only 5-7:1. And in the city maybe 3-4:1. Especially with daylight savings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone.  If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn 

If Western LI got screwed and dryslotted would they still get a half a foot?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone.  If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn 

You've gotta be kidding me.  I don't know if I can take a 4th straight storm of getting screwed, now that would be unprecedented for western L.I. to be in the screw zone for the 4th straight time while historical totals pile up north, south, east and west of the area.  I might have to take a couple of winters of stormtracking off if this happened again haha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol some things never change in this forum.

1-There will always be the pessimistic debbie downers trying to downplay things with snow trying to find and hang onto the model with the least amount of snow or some other issue (rates/sunangle) and it's always the usual suspects and  2-Franklin will ask how much for northern coastal Monmouth county. Every storm lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I put a lot of thought into this, final call

Inside the pink line - 1-3"

Inside the light blue line - 2-5"

Inside the dark blue line - 4-8"

Inside the green line - 5-10"

Inside the red line - 6-12"

Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts.

sketched_5ab1769a489ca.png

 

 

oh I would sign on for this...please be right...I dont need to plow 12-18 inches. I think Mt Holly is way overdone and your totals are very reasonable

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

If Western LI got screwed and dryslotted would they still get a half a foot?

I would think so.  I think between 21-01Z though there will be some sort of subsistent area around the heavy banding. If you shift it a bit west of where most guidance shows it right now it puts the heavy banding near or just west of NYC

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

The last thing I'll say ratio related for now is if NYC sees a foot which is very possible it will be due to loads of LE, not because of ratios. I want a shutdown storm as much as the next guy. Let's root on the ARW.

Let's root for the Ukie , HRDPS , RPM , Nam , Rgem

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Thinking about it, I agree with you. Even out here, ratios will probably be only 5-7:1. And in the city maybe 3-4:1. Especially with daylight savings.

Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms

Unless it's a strong storm

Sun angle don't mean anything with good rates and cold temps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms

The sun is out for the same amount of time. The DST has nothing to die with sun angle. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms

Please tell me you aren't serious. Our laws dont effect mother nature. We haven't added any extra daylight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms

daylight savings has nothing to do with it-it's darker an hour later in the morning, we simply moved the hour of light to the evening.    It's still 12 hrs of light with or without DST.  But yes, there will be some issues b/w 10am and 2-3pm if it's not coming down heavy.   Luckily the best snows are from 3-9pm or something like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms

Bingo! 

I mean: I just filled out my bingo card checking off the dumbest possible posts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I knew back in 01 or 02 when they advanced DST up to March they were never going back.  They claimed it was temporary due to rising energy costs but I said we would never refer back to early April.  Don’t forget that prior to 1987 it was late April 

some states are trying to get rid of it altogether (MA and FL).   They want to stay on DST the whole year.   The move to March was in 2007.   It was part of an energy bill.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Brian5671 said:

some states are trying to get rid of it altogether (MA and FL).   They want to stay on DST the whole year.   The move to March was in 2007.   It was part of an energy bill.   

Florida is getting fights from western areas since they’d have like a 905am sunrise in parts of October and March 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Yessss finally someone is talking about the daylight savings issue which is legit since they changed the law now in late March we have to worry about sun angle and an extra hour of sunlight every day is a huge factor in late season storms

Had me going for a minute there.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...