sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not much yet obviously but it’s sticking to cold surfaces, and when I walked outside the sleet is lingering on pavement. Do you feel wave 1 albeit light will blend into wave 2 or will LI have a lull before wave 2 commences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Do you feel wave 1 albeit light will blend into wave 2 or will LI have a lull before wave 2 commences? It will lull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Which means NENJ jackpot. 7 out of 10 times it sets up NW of guidance. Usually I'd agree, but the band develops far to the SE then sweeps NWward. With that orientation it'd be difficult to miss anyone really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is 8:1 up to 12:1 for the city itself I think 8:1 in the beginning and 12:1 towards the end of the storm I'm calling for 14 inches at central park but they'll report 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Which means NENJ jackpot. 7 out of 10 times it sets up NW of guidance. Yup. You can lock that one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I’m really liking the mid level low tracks, so I don’t think we have to deal with a dry slot. But anything can happen and banding will set up where it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yup. You can lock that one up Banding loves to set up there when the main action gets there, so sure. It’s a natural place for frontogenesis, hilly terrain vs ocean air coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: This is 8:1 up to 12:1 for the city itself I think 8:1 in the beginning and 12:1 towards the end of the storm I'm calling for 14 inches at central park but they'll report 11 Depending on which/whose ruler they use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said: I'm dumbfounded at the guy that's calling 3-6 inches for new York city he must be from northern New Jersey. Don't worry dude you're not getting shafted I'm sure you'll get the death band after it stalls at NYC and pivots north after several hours. I'm in sure you'll get hammered the whole sjbforum will except Monticello If it’s 34 instead of 32 for much of the storm and the best banding happens away from the city, it could certainly happen. I would definitely go with 8-12 given the bullish guidance. But it’s been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Is there anyway NYC winds up with 1 to 2 inches of slop or too much in its favor for a nice accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Is there anyway NYC winds up with 1 to 2 inches of slop or too much in its favor for a nice accumulation? Yes, it's almost April. Unlikely but certainly possible if it's 34 forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If it’s 34 instead of 32 for much of the storm and the best banding happens away from the city, it could certainly happen. I would definitely go with 8-12 given the bullish guidance. But it’s been wrong before. Agreed it's been wrong but the temps were never wrong on any of the past storms the writing was on the wall for the past few noreasters this month for the temps to be above freezing on all guidance. This time around the writing is on the wall but instead its the opposite they are depicting temps below freezing. 3-6 Is too little besides this storm is going to be a long lasting event about 24hrs probably around 20 cause they always move faster the modeled. Regardless I think we are okay unless this storm just gets undermodeled and scoots east. Doubt it. Can't wait till tomorrow gotta track the death band. You know what I noticed tracking storms is probably just as fun as being out in one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yup. You can lock that one up Yay? I can’t tell if you’re being facetious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 nyc is most certainly not getting a slop storm from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Yay? I can’t tell if you’re being facetious... I'm serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Agreed it's been wrong but the temps were never wrong on any of the past storms the writing was on the wall for the past few noreasters this month for the temps to be above freezing on all guidance. This time around the writing is on the wall but instead its the opposite they are depicting temps below freezing. 3-6 Is too little besides this storm is going to be a long lasting event about 24hrs probably around 20 cause they always move faster the modeled. Regardless I think we are okay unless this storm just gets undermodeled and scoots east. Doubt it. Can't wait till tomorrow gotta track the death band. You know what I noticed tracking storms is probably just as fun as being out in one! I think whatever death band happens takes place west of the city for a while because it’s so frequent when good forcing gets into NJ, but odds are we all get into good action for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If it’s 34 instead of 32 for much of the storm and the best banding happens away from the city, it could certainly happen. I would definitely go with 8-12 given the bullish guidance. But it’s been wrong before. i find it hard to believe it will be 34 with heavy precip in the city in southern jersey when you had some precip today temps were freezing or even slightly below.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 State of Emergency in effect for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yes, it's almost April. Unlikely but certainly possible if it's 34 forget it. Who cares if it's April It can snow in May with a good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: nyc is most certainly not getting a slop storm from this Speaking of Rutgers, the dopey chem dept had scheduled a review for 820 tonight and my son feels he needs to be there. Right now things look ok here but this review will go on till around 11. I'm worried about him is there a chance anything will be cranking tonight by that time ( he just called to tell me his car didn't start earlier but now it just did, give an old man a stroke ) anyone can feel free to weigh in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I think whatever death band happens takes place west of the city for a while because it’s so frequent when good forcing gets into NJ, but odds are we all get into good action for a time. Think we''ll do better this time out, but don't think over a foot is realistic. Several stations calling 6-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: Think we''ll do better this time out, but don't think over a foot is realistic. Several stations calling 6-12. I like our chances. I’m in Kenilworth. I think this is our storm, meaning those who have been fringed or subsidenced on the big storms so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Think we''ll do better this time out, but don't think over a foot is realistic. Several stations calling 6-12. 6-12 is a good conservative call, but people here keep citing the date and past storms as if they have bearing here. There is a very good chance for over a foot considering the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SleetStormNJ said: I like our chances. I’m in Kenilworth. I think this is our storm, meaning those who have been fringed or subsidenced on the big storms so far this winter. Me too. My district actually hasn't canceled but I already called my parents to reschedule IEP meetings. Rutgers is closed tomorrow ( but not tonight see my post above ) as are Philly and NYC schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: 6-12 is a good conservative call, but people here keep citing the date and past storms as if they have bearing here. There is a very good chance for over a foot considering the guidance. Sure, it could happen. Double digit storms don't happen every day here, but they do happen. We just missed 10 by a hair in April 82, some places had a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Who cares if it's April It can snow in May with a good pattern Apparently every storm in history. You said the same about the last storm too. Granted this has more potential and wouldn't be surprised to see it 29 degrees tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Guys every storm this month was historic in their ways. Snow wise for NYC this has the most potential since January 04, 2018 and also January 23, 2016. This is our storm man drop the sticking conversation and if the city is getting 3-6 its obviously getting more. You may have your opinion amd i respect that but you're against the odds here. Good luck with the 3-6 call though. Philly went down to 31 today and it stuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Speaking of Rutgers, the dopey chem dept had scheduled a review for 820 tonight and my son feels he needs to be there. Right now things look ok here but this review will go on till around 11. I'm worried about him is there a chance anything will be cranking tonight by that time ( he just called to tell me his car didn't start earlier but now it just did, give an old man a stroke ) anyone can feel free to weigh in here. things don't get cranking until the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 44 minutes ago, forkyfork said: nyc is most certainly not getting a slop storm from this Yeah my DP is about 10 points lower then what it was with the storm earlier this month at least as of right now. Current DP is 21 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Guys every storm this month was historic in their ways. Snow wise for NYC this has the most potential since January 04, 2018 and also January 23, 2016. This is our storm man drop the sticking conversation and if the city is getting 3-6 its obviously getting more. You may have your opinion amd i respect that but you're against the odds here. Good luck with the 3-6 call though. Philly went down to 31 today and it stuck! It’s funny but at the end of it all NYC might have the least snow of DCA PHL BOS for March. Let’s say NYC gets 12 tomorrow which puts them at 16 or so. If DCA gets close to 8 or a bit over and that storm this weekend hits them they may end up ahead for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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