Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Mophstymeo said: For the sake of the NWS' reputation , I hope this storm pans out. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I just think that you're going to have a hard time accumulating in the city, aside from parts of SI and Northern Queens. I guess you could group parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx in there too. If temps were 33-34 like the last three storms, I would be going with 1-3" in NYC. I think 3-6" is a good call, because you're going to lose some to melting even with great rates. If everything works out perfectly, then the city could do much better than that, or if the EPS is correct, maybe everyone misses. It’s already accumulating here although it’s sleet. If it’s freezing or below there won’t be as many problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, strgazr27 said: Think that’s a waste of a snow day, especially for the city. JMO we had one snow day all winter this is the last snow day until next winter it's worth it and they called it early which is good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Sleet has ended and now just light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like it gets below freezing tomorrow even for the city. This will help a lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I’m pretty sure this is not the snow day discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Drz1111 said: I’m pretty sure this is not the snow day discussion thread. Correct. It's a storm discussion thread. School closing in NYC is storm related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I just think that you're going to have a hard time accumulating in the city, aside from parts of SI and Northern Queens. I guess you could group parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx in there too. If temps were 33-34 like the last three storms, I would be going with 1-3" in NYC. I think 3-6" is a good call, because you're going to lose some to melting even with great rates. If everything works out perfectly, then the city could do much better than that, or if the EPS is correct, maybe everyone misses. Disagree. As modeled, snowfall rates of 1" or more per hour will easily exceed NYC melting rates (except maybe streets over subways that are abnormally warm) and once there's a layer of 32F snow, the rest of the snow accumulates easily even at midday, with the high albedo of the snow cover, especially with surface temps below 32F most of the day (indirect solar radiation has little melting effect on newly fallen snow). Certainly the Park will accumulate easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Philly to Monmouth to psv's house jackpot. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 no talk about the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: i pulled the NAM soundings from coordinates in NW Suffolk, and, verbatim, there's a 3 hour window between 18-21z where it looks isothermal along the 0C between 875 and 775... a line which is a dangerous line to walk, though the heaviest precip is after this point anyway. that being said, other than that the soundings don't look terribly sleety. On the 3k it peaks at +2C around 775mb at 21Z over my head. SkewT graphically shows a pretty deep above freezing layer for 3 or 4 hours. From that view, we might also be in a relative dry slot at that time. On the 12k NAM its all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I wonder if being under a heavy snow band with it's denser, taller clouds diminishes impact of higher sun angle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its amazing that as soon as we hit 5pm and everyone had to leave work the forum came back up Heh I leave at 4 I work in a school, gotta stay later than the teachers though. This forum was down for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: no talk about the GFS? It's fine but unimpressive compared to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: no talk about the GFS? Gfs looks great a bit of sleet and rain by montauk but I think the dynamics will take care of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: no talk about the GFS? 1 foot + for NYC per 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It's fine but unimpressive compared to the nam It's also less useful at this range. Euro is the only global I care about right now, and mainly because it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Disagree. As modeled, snowfall rates of 1" or more per hour will easily exceed NYC melting rates (except maybe streets over subways that are abnormally warm) and once there's a layer of 32F snow, the rest of the snow accumulates easily even at midday, with the high albedo of the snow cover, especially with surface temps below 32F most of the day (indirect solar radiation has little melting effect on newly fallen snow). Certainly the Park will accumulate easily. Might just be our storm this time. We'll see. Not really thrilled with losing the day at school, as we are making up days already. But might as well enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: It's also less useful at this range. Euro is the only global I care about right now, and mainly because it's an outlier. But it's fine if you're South of I80. It's the eps that was a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: It's also less useful at this range. Euro is the only global I care about right now, and mainly because it's an outlier. Euro is nothing special in this range either, especially since it’s a global (ie relatively low res compared to the NAM and RGEM) and doesn’t allow convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: On the 3k it peaks at +2C around 775mb at 21Z over my head. SkewT graphically shows a pretty deep above freezing layer for 3 or 4 hours. From that view, we might also be in a relative dry slot at that time. On the 12k NAM its all snow. Good point, I should have clarified I was basing it on 12k NAM, not 3K which is undoubtedly more sleety. My rule of thumb is to be cautious with large isothermal layers. The fact that it exists is indicative of melting in that layer. That, combined with my observations about undergoing mid-level WAA makes me weary of more sleet (for a brief time) on the 12k NAM. Overall though, even with that concern my forecast is 7-14 and feel as though even if my concerns verified about the sleet, it would still be good for the lower end of the range. If it weren't for the sleet concern I'd probably go 10-16. I think we're in a good spot in NW Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hi-res RGEM is another crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HDERPS showing the same crush band as the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That is quite the deform band over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Definitely accumulating here. Even pavement is getting crunchy with sleet. Still all sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Definitely accumulating here. Even pavement is getting crunchy with sleet. Still all sleet here. Funny, just a few miles north of you in Lynbrook, pingers but absolutely no accumulation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: That is quite the deform band over NYC. That band is beginning to hone in right around NYC/LI on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Funny, just a few miles north of you in Lynbrook, pingers but absolutely no accumulation . Not much yet obviously but it’s sticking to cold surfaces, and when I walked outside the sleet is lingering on pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: That band is beginning to hone in right around NYC/LI on the models. Which means NENJ jackpot. 7 out of 10 times it sets up NW of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Heavy sleet now Sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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