Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: no talk about the GFS? It's fine but unimpressive compared to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: no talk about the GFS? Gfs looks great a bit of sleet and rain by montauk but I think the dynamics will take care of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: no talk about the GFS? 1 foot + for NYC per 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It's fine but unimpressive compared to the nam It's also less useful at this range. Euro is the only global I care about right now, and mainly because it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Disagree. As modeled, snowfall rates of 1" or more per hour will easily exceed NYC melting rates (except maybe streets over subways that are abnormally warm) and once there's a layer of 32F snow, the rest of the snow accumulates easily even at midday, with the high albedo of the snow cover, especially with surface temps below 32F most of the day (indirect solar radiation has little melting effect on newly fallen snow). Certainly the Park will accumulate easily. Might just be our storm this time. We'll see. Not really thrilled with losing the day at school, as we are making up days already. But might as well enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: It's also less useful at this range. Euro is the only global I care about right now, and mainly because it's an outlier. But it's fine if you're South of I80. It's the eps that was a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: It's also less useful at this range. Euro is the only global I care about right now, and mainly because it's an outlier. Euro is nothing special in this range either, especially since it’s a global (ie relatively low res compared to the NAM and RGEM) and doesn’t allow convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: On the 3k it peaks at +2C around 775mb at 21Z over my head. SkewT graphically shows a pretty deep above freezing layer for 3 or 4 hours. From that view, we might also be in a relative dry slot at that time. On the 12k NAM its all snow. Good point, I should have clarified I was basing it on 12k NAM, not 3K which is undoubtedly more sleety. My rule of thumb is to be cautious with large isothermal layers. The fact that it exists is indicative of melting in that layer. That, combined with my observations about undergoing mid-level WAA makes me weary of more sleet (for a brief time) on the 12k NAM. Overall though, even with that concern my forecast is 7-14 and feel as though even if my concerns verified about the sleet, it would still be good for the lower end of the range. If it weren't for the sleet concern I'd probably go 10-16. I think we're in a good spot in NW Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hi-res RGEM is another crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HDERPS showing the same crush band as the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That is quite the deform band over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Definitely accumulating here. Even pavement is getting crunchy with sleet. Still all sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Definitely accumulating here. Even pavement is getting crunchy with sleet. Still all sleet here. Funny, just a few miles north of you in Lynbrook, pingers but absolutely no accumulation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: That is quite the deform band over NYC. That band is beginning to hone in right around NYC/LI on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Funny, just a few miles north of you in Lynbrook, pingers but absolutely no accumulation . Not much yet obviously but it’s sticking to cold surfaces, and when I walked outside the sleet is lingering on pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: That band is beginning to hone in right around NYC/LI on the models. Which means NENJ jackpot. 7 out of 10 times it sets up NW of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Heavy sleet now Sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not much yet obviously but it’s sticking to cold surfaces, and when I walked outside the sleet is lingering on pavement. Do you feel wave 1 albeit light will blend into wave 2 or will LI have a lull before wave 2 commences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Do you feel wave 1 albeit light will blend into wave 2 or will LI have a lull before wave 2 commences? It will lull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Which means NENJ jackpot. 7 out of 10 times it sets up NW of guidance. Usually I'd agree, but the band develops far to the SE then sweeps NWward. With that orientation it'd be difficult to miss anyone really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is 8:1 up to 12:1 for the city itself I think 8:1 in the beginning and 12:1 towards the end of the storm I'm calling for 14 inches at central park but they'll report 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Which means NENJ jackpot. 7 out of 10 times it sets up NW of guidance. Yup. You can lock that one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I’m really liking the mid level low tracks, so I don’t think we have to deal with a dry slot. But anything can happen and banding will set up where it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yup. You can lock that one up Banding loves to set up there when the main action gets there, so sure. It’s a natural place for frontogenesis, hilly terrain vs ocean air coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: This is 8:1 up to 12:1 for the city itself I think 8:1 in the beginning and 12:1 towards the end of the storm I'm calling for 14 inches at central park but they'll report 11 Depending on which/whose ruler they use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said: I'm dumbfounded at the guy that's calling 3-6 inches for new York city he must be from northern New Jersey. Don't worry dude you're not getting shafted I'm sure you'll get the death band after it stalls at NYC and pivots north after several hours. I'm in sure you'll get hammered the whole sjbforum will except Monticello If it’s 34 instead of 32 for much of the storm and the best banding happens away from the city, it could certainly happen. I would definitely go with 8-12 given the bullish guidance. But it’s been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Is there anyway NYC winds up with 1 to 2 inches of slop or too much in its favor for a nice accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Is there anyway NYC winds up with 1 to 2 inches of slop or too much in its favor for a nice accumulation? Yes, it's almost April. Unlikely but certainly possible if it's 34 forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If it’s 34 instead of 32 for much of the storm and the best banding happens away from the city, it could certainly happen. I would definitely go with 8-12 given the bullish guidance. But it’s been wrong before. Agreed it's been wrong but the temps were never wrong on any of the past storms the writing was on the wall for the past few noreasters this month for the temps to be above freezing on all guidance. This time around the writing is on the wall but instead its the opposite they are depicting temps below freezing. 3-6 Is too little besides this storm is going to be a long lasting event about 24hrs probably around 20 cause they always move faster the modeled. Regardless I think we are okay unless this storm just gets undermodeled and scoots east. Doubt it. Can't wait till tomorrow gotta track the death band. You know what I noticed tracking storms is probably just as fun as being out in one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yup. You can lock that one up Yay? I can’t tell if you’re being facetious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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