nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: That makes sense. I might be ignoring climo too much, and maybe the Euro too. But even if you blend those in I like a 6-12 call right now for the city. upton said the euro run was a outlier.. they discounted it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If you look at total QPF though you can see the slightly lower amounts to the South of LI. Not saying it's right, just making an observation. If it is right, there will be less snow on the fish. Honestly, the placement of the heavier bands is not known yet. That picture (and all the others) will shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, nycwinter said: upton said the euro run was a outlier.. they discounted it... Saying it's an outlier isn't discounting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I know this storm is different than the previous few but we have been down this road before. Conservative is the way to go for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: That makes sense. I might be ignoring climo too much, and maybe the Euro too. But even if you blend those in I like a 6-12 call right now for the city. I just think that you're going to have a hard time accumulating in the city, aside from parts of SI and Northern Queens. I guess you could group parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx in there too. If temps were 33-34 like the last three storms, I would be going with 1-3" in NYC. I think 3-6" is a good call, because you're going to lose some to melting even with great rates. If everything works out perfectly, then the city could do much better than that, or if the EPS is correct, maybe everyone misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: If it is right, there will be less snow on the fish. Honestly, the placement of the heavier bands is not known yet. That picture (and all the others) will shift around. This is why I enjoy taking stabs at making forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I just think that you're going to have a hard time accumulating in the city, aside from parts of SI and Northern Queens. I guess you could group parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx in there too. If temps were 33-34 like the last three storms, I would be going with 1-3" in NYC. I think 3-6" is a good call, because you're going to lose some to melting even with great rates. If everything works out perfectly, then the city could do much better than that, but I still cannot get past the Euro being so far South. That's really scary at such a close range. Especially how funny the NAM looked wanting to follow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem has over a foot for the NYC area This has the makings of a huge snowstorm for the area with the low stalling. Temps will be cold for most of it to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Too low last storm the hamptons somehow got 18 inches.. with temps above freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, seanick said: now why is this map different from the NWS map that someone posted 7 posts before this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I just think that you're going to have a hard time accumulating in the city, aside from parts of SI and Northern Queens. I guess you could group parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx in there too. If temps were 33-34 like the last three storms, I would be going with 1-3" in NYC. I think 3-6" is a good call, because you're going to lose some to melting even with great rates. If everything works out perfectly, then the city could do much better than that, or if the EPS is correct, maybe everyone misses. Eps is skewed by way east members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Too low That's fine. I'll take climo, but obviously with all the moisture around it could easily be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: now why is this map different from the NWS map that someone posted 7 posts before this ? One is a range, one is a best guess specific number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k NAM soundings for my backyard show a warm layer between 750 and 850 for 3 or 4 hours starting around 19z during a period of lighter precip. I'm not buying it for the most part, but some sleet during any lulls in the precip wouldn't be a shock for central LI. 12k NAM is my hero right now and I am going to ride it into oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It gets old to say it, but this is a forecaster's nightmare. The Euro is probably the last model I'd want out on an island like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is my call 14 to 20 inches from philly north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Its amazing that as soon as we hit 5pm and everyone had to leave work the forum came back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Gfs is crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its amazing that as soon as we hit 5pm and everyone had to leave work the forum came back up Was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: now why is this map different from the NWS map that someone posted 7 posts before this ? One map is a range. The other is a point estimate. One can choose either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NYC- 7.1" LGA- 6.8" JFK- 5.6" ISP- 4.8" PHL- 10.2" TTN- 11.8" DC- 8.1" BOS- 5.8" I think your ISP call is about 1/2 what it may likely be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NYC schools are closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NYC schools are closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I put a lot of thought into this, final call Inside the pink line - 1-3" Inside the light blue line - 2-5" Inside the dark blue line - 4-8" Inside the green line - 5-10" Inside the red line - 6-12" Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts. If I were a betting man, I'd wager that you are well underdone on LI. But, I'm certainly not one to judge, and should sleet overperform my expectations that certainly could verify. personally, I think a general 7-14 inches covers the western 2/3rds of the Island, outside of maybe the immediate south shore... these areas maybe it's more like 4-8 or something...Heaviest totals would be on the grass, with the lower end or maybe even a few inches lower on pavement. i pulled the NAM soundings from coordinates in NW Suffolk, and, verbatim, there's a 3 hour window between 18-21z where it looks isothermal along the 0C between 875 and 775... a line which is a dangerous line to walk, though the heaviest precip is after this point anyway. that being said, other than that the soundings don't look terribly sleety. I pulled meteograms from KOKX (which is the old OKX, not Islip) and it showed that the precip was overwhelmingly snow... how good The algorithm is, I'm not sure but we'll find out. as I alluded to earlier, my main concern is sleet. Often times models will underdo WAA in the mid levels which does scare me. However, seeing as how the NAM appears to be the warmest aloft combined with the sheer Amount of liquid progged to fall, I think it will overcome those limitations While I think and hope that your map busts, thanks for the work you put in with your posts, and the effort you put into making maps in the first place. It certainly makes the forums a better place when people put in a bunch of effort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, strgazr27 said: Lol talking to a psychic? No, watching the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, seanick said: NYC schools are closed tomorrow. i predicted this morning if a foot of snow was forecast the school would be closed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NYC- 7.1" LGA- 6.8" JFK- 5.6" ISP- 4.8" PHL- 10.2" TTN- 11.8" DC- 8.1" BOS- 5.8" I would say double those numbers (at least) for those locations in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: NYC schools are closed Think that’s a waste of a snow day, especially for the city. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'd like that deform band to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: NYC schools are closed For the sake of the NWS' reputation , I hope this storm pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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