Animal Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wow nam looks great Heavy snow with below freezing temps for the NYC area barely a flake of snow just north of my house on the 12 Z NAM. Trending towards other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: It's still outside its best range. But its currently the furthest north piece of guidance. Nobody would worry about snow sticking on even the pavement in NYC if this S+ and daytime 20's verified. Now we just hope it can hold onto this going forward. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html Just ease the confluence alittle more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Jan 2016 ? Feb 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It's still outside its best range. But its currently the furthest north piece of guidance. Nobody would worry about snow sticking on even the pavement in NYC if this S+ and daytime 20's verified. Now we just hope it can hold onto this going forward. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html I wouldn't be excited about the NAM standing alone. But it's definitely better than no support for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Jan 2016 ? Feb 2010? God I hope. Was in Maryland/DC for both of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's still outside its best range. But its currently the furthest north piece of guidance. Nobody would worry about snow sticking on even the pavement in NYC if this S+ and daytime 20's verified. Now we just hope it can hold onto this going forward. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html At this point I would want at least 1 other major model to show this or more north for wiggle room. Seeing the NAM go south by 25 miles in one run is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Forky, Snowgoose, red taggers thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: At this point I would want at least 1 other major model to show this or more north for wiggle room. Seeing the NAM go south by 25 miles in one run is concerning. Euro last week had 12 + for next week. Maybe its the time where the models lose this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 19 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Honestly the NAM lead the way with this past storm. I think the NAM is much much improved But it didn't have support from any other models? Remember, it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: At this point I would want at least 1 other major model to show this or more north for wiggle room. Seeing the NAM go south by 25 miles in one run is concerning. Need to see guidance make a move north within the next 24 hrs or we're in trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 12Z is sweet, but too close for comfort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 12Z is sweet, but too close for comfort... some of the best storms around here were too close for comfort - last thing you want to see is the precip shield extending well north of the metro then you will get into precip type issues - NAM has been doing fairly well since the pattern changed a few weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Need to see guidance make a move north within the next 24 hrs or we're in trouble... U and I are 1 storm away from probably the snowiest March ever. But this one I feel is slipping away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: U and I are 1 storm away from probably the snowiest March ever. But this one I feel is slipping away. it'll come down to the strength of that confluence up north....this one will have a crazy cutoff where someone gets 10 and Ten miles away it's 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Need to see guidance make a move north within the next 24 hrs or we're in trouble... We have seen the models overdo confluence over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it'll come down to the strength of that confluence up north....this one will have a crazy cutoff where someone gets 10 and Ten miles away it's 3 inches Jan 2016 cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Jan 2016 cutoff I would take that. 11.5 inches here. We need at least 1 other models to show something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I would take that. 11.5 inches here. We need at least 1 other models to show something. if the cutoff is down to the M/D line by this time tomorrow-we are toast. Need to stay central NJ or north for us to stay in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it'll come down to the strength of that confluence up north....this one will have a crazy cutoff where someone gets 10 and Ten miles away it's 3 inches i remember it was the nam vs the other models in the 2016 blizzard the confluence for days was going to give the big totals to dc and philly.. nyc would not get much.. but the confluence was not as strong as originally thought and nyc hit the jackpot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Gfs and cmc came north but not enough right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 12Z GFS is only about 50 - 75 miles south of the 12Z NAM - 50-75 miles is easily correctible within 78 hours also both are within the benchmark range and the precip shields might not be accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS is only about 50 miles south of the 12Z NAM - 50 miles is easily correctible within 78 hours How much north did 12z GFS come from 06Z ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: How much north did 12z GFS come from 06Z ? the 6Z at the same hour was about 150 + miles further east at the same time - also this is still too close to call at 78 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: 2 minutes ago, sferic said: How much north did 12z GFS come from 06Z ? About the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: How much north did 12z GFS come from 06Z ? In a lot of ways it didn't. The precip shield is more squashed. The Low is barely north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: In a lot of ways it didn't. The precip shield is more squashed. The Low is barely north. Height field is better Better 12z runs Let's see Ukie and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: About the same. no - its much further east Tue 18Z on the 6Z run - although it looks more strung out with 2 low centers the system slowed down and the position at 12Z is closer to the 12Z NAM - strength is almost the same it is how the models handle the precip shield - I doubt the precip shield is accurate and it will make a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the 6Z at the same hour was about 150 + miles further east at the same time - also this is still too close to call at 78 hours out Dont look at the "L" on tropicaltidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Height field is better Better 12z runs Let's see Ukie and euro That's the biggest takeaway from the gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 this is more important to look at GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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