mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18Z RGEM looks sick on the pretty color cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: I'm thinking 6-12" for most of the subforum with locally 18" depending on where the heavy bands set up excluding eastern LI. Dam Yanks. You have me riding the 2" line. I could be wrong, just think that the usual areas on the South shore have mixing issues. And the 3k NAM actually has you flirting with dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Still going at 10pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Have a snow pellet or 2 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Here's total precip on the euro btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Quote The first of two coastal lows will pass to the south and east of the area this evening. A confluent flow aloft and a polar high to the north will keep the area primarily dry with a light wintry mix possibly along the coast early this evening before conditions dry out. The main focus of concern then shifts to an upper low over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys that translates east tonight ahead of a northern branch shortwave trough moving into the upper Great Lakes. The latter feature will maintain a downstream polar high across eastern Canada with an anomalously cold airmass in place for the start of the spring. At the same time, a second coastal low will take shape off the Mid Atlantic coast overnight in response to the forcing from the approaching upper low. It is this storm that will bring snow into the region toward daybreak along the coast, which will be the start of what appears to be the potential for one of the biggest snowfalls since 1960. As for temperatures, lows will range from the upper 20s across the interior to the lower 30s at the coast. This is nearly seasonable due to the insulating affect of the cloud cover. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- Snow will overspread the area from the coast into the interior during the morning hours becoming heavy with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. This could possibly move in as early as late morning at the coast. As for the guidance, since the 06Z run there has been a shift to the southeast with the axis of heaviest precipitation, which now appears to be from NYC northeast across Long Island and southern Connecticut. This area has liquid equivalent amounts around 1.5 inches, with lesser amount to the NW. Much of the area by the time the event ends Wednesday night will receive between 10 to 16 inches of snowfall with localized higher amounts. Briefly, there could be a mix with sleet at the coast in the morning. Unlike previous storms, this airmass is colder and drier and with the onset of the moderate to heavy snowfall, temperatures will likely remain at or below freezing for much of the event. Thus, expect a higher snowfall ratio, closer to 10:1 or even higher. There is some uncertainty with the ECMWF solution pointing to lower liquid equivalent amounts, but it appears to be an outlier from the respect of a weaker closed low off the New England coast by Wednesday night. The exact placement of the heavy snow band is also a difficult thing to pinpoint, but a well defined deformation zone and frontogenesis to the NW of the low track points to this signal. The winds will be gusty throughout the day on Wednesday, with the strongest gusts across coastal Connecticut and coastal Long Island. The winds will gust up to 30 mph across New York City, and 35 to 45 mph across coastal sections of Connecticut and Long Island. This will result in periods of near-blizzard conditions. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This may belong in banter....but seeing my NWS forecast made me reflect on how times have changed climo-wise over the past decade. As I think about huddling up as a kid to my brown box Radio Shack NOAA weather radio hoping for that winter storm watch for 6" of snow...and only dreaming of forecasts like this, reserved mainly for folks out West: Somerset- Including the city of Somerville 330 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow this evening, then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Cold. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. .WEDNESDAY...A slight chance of thunderstorms. Snow. Snow may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Additional snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Blustery. Near steady temperature around 30. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the morning. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Total snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches. Cold. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Seems like now these local forecasts aren't all that surprising around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18z RGEM bumped North 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I put a lot of thought into this, final call Inside the pink line - 1-3" Inside the light blue line - 2-5" Inside the dark blue line - 4-8" Inside the green line - 5-10" Inside the red line - 6-12" Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts. Me thinks this is far too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Upton's latest snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That 12k NAM tho...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z RGEM bumped North 12z 18z Looks good. Also RGEM has very little sleet for NYC/LI (just a few hours before 14z when the precip cranks up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Me thinks this is far too conservative. Conservative has been the way to go for the last three storms, especially for the coast. This storm will have better BL temps, and the banding should be right over 95, I just think the 12-18" is overdone. I basically have NYC in the 3-6" range which isn't bad for March 21st. Whomever manages to get under that deformation band will cash in, no doubt about that. But how many hours of non accumulating snow will fall before and after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I could be wrong, just think that the usual areas on the South shore have mixing issues. And the 3k NAM actually has you flirting with dry air That's 2AM Thursday. Everyone is flirting with dry air by then. Besides, with that scale, the difference between the light greens and the browns could be trivial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Conservative has been the way to go for the last three storms, especially for the coast. This storm will have better BL temps, and the banding should be right over 95, I just think the 12-18" is overdone. I basically have NYC in the 3-6" range which isn't bad for March 21st. Whomever manages to get under that deformation band will cash in, no doubt about that. But how many hours of non accumulating snow will fall before and after? That makes sense. I might be ignoring climo too much, and maybe the Euro too. But even if you blend those in I like a 6-12 call right now for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 FWIW the 18z RGEM put up a 30"+ spot over Eastern Burlington County and 20"+ spot over Western Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: That makes sense. I might be ignoring climo too much, and maybe the Euro too. But even if you blend those in I like a 6-12 call right now for the city. And now I'll probably stay up for tonight's Euro...Was hoping I wouldn't have to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Me thinks this is far too conservative. Is that a joke? He has most of central NJ at 2-5", we're under a warning for 13-17" right now and most models jackpot that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: That's 2AM Thursday. Everyone is flirting with dry air by then. Besides, with that scale, the difference between the light greens and the browns could be trivial. If you look at total QPF though you can see the slightly lower amounts to the South of LI. Not saying it's right, just making an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: 2-5in for the city? I personally think double that if not more. that is a joke forecast for the city dude.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NYC- 7.1" LGA- 6.8" JFK- 5.6" ISP- 4.8" PHL- 10.2" TTN- 11.8" DC- 8.1" BOS- 5.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If you look at total QPF though you can see the slightly lower amounts to the South of LI. Not saying it's right, just making an observation. The 3K NAM always jumps precip around run to run. It tries to find the banding and always shifts it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Surprised at the lack of fanfare about the 12k. I know it's just one run of one model, but damn that was one for the photo album. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: FWIW the 18z RGEM put up a 30"+ spot over Eastern Burlington County and 20"+ spot over Western Suffolk. Pretty amazing stuff. And if that bumps north at all, a lot of us could be talking about those totals too. Won't take much of a bump to do that. As is, it looks like Hoboken/NYC is in the 1.5-1.75 LE Range and not too far away from the next range upwards (or downwards, I suppose, depending on your perspective). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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