Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3km NAM is weird, crushes the interior. Massive discrepancies with the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, snywx said: 18z 3k NAM pivots the CCB all the way back here. The 3k’s bank account is empty but that doesn’t stop it from writing those checks out storm after storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: What’s preventing northern and western precip expansion? Confluence? Placement of the SLP doesn’t look too bad. A further offshore track of the ULL, the heaviest is always going to be just a bit to the NW of where that low tracks. Yesterday is was about 50 miles closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: For those cheerleading the 18z NAM, my point was that it has the same sharp cutoff that the Euro has to the North, except that it's a bit further North. And initially it didn't look like anything was going to make it North of the city at all, but luckily that changed. If the NAM is even 30-40 miles too far North, nobody North of the city is seeing much of anything. The 18z has actually backed amounts in northern sections and increased southern sections of Orange County from the 12z run. 12k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Yeah 3k NAM is much better for those to the North and West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Keep in mind, fantasy Closer to reality The truth is probably somewhere in between, but I definitely wouldn't go with 15" in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My only concern TBH is that the Euro ensembles were so miserable. Otherwise I would not bat an eye about the Op run 3k NAM is really far north. This is a forecasters nightmare. However, this distribution looks amazingly similar to Jan 2016 on a lesser scale. Even with the Sharp cut off I was north of the band and got a consolation prize of 11.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Keep in mind, fantasy Closer to reality The truth is probably somewhere in between, but I definitely wouldn't go with 15" in Manhattan. their is a big difference between lower manhattan and upper manhattan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 JFK has PLRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: For those cheerleading the 18z NAM, my point was that it has the same sharp cutoff that the Euro has to the North, except that it's a bit further North. And initially it didn't look like anything was going to make it North of the city at all, but luckily that changed. If the NAM is even 30-40 miles too far North, nobody North of the city is seeing much of anything. Except your post made it seem like it was worse for the whole subforum. Hence the reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Upton now has 14 inches for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 @NJwx85 could you post the 12km accum map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Groupel in Massapequa, NY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Keep in mind, fantasy Closer to reality The truth is probably somewhere in between, but I definitely wouldn't go with 15" in Manhattan. 2-4 ? No way we are only going to get that little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, nycwinter said: Snow will overspread the area from the coast into the interior during the morning hours becoming heavy with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. This could possibly move in as early as late morning at the coast. As for the guidance, since the 06Z run there has been a shift to the southeast with the axis of heaviest precipitation, which now appears to be from NYC northeast across Long Island and southern Connecticut. This area has liquid equivalent amounts around 1.5 inches, with lesser amount to the NW. Much of the area by the time the event ends Wednesday night will receive between 10 to 16 inches of snowfall with localized higher amounts. Briefly, there could be a mix with sleet at the coast in the morning. Unlike previous storms, this airmass is colder and drier and with the onset of the moderate to heavy snowfall, temperatures will likely remain at or below freezing for much of the event. Thus, expect a higher snowfall ratio, closer to 10:1 or even higher. There is some uncertainty with the ECMWF solution pointing to lower liquid equivalent amounts, but it appears to be an outlier from the respect of a weaker closed low off the New England coast by Wednesday night. The exact placement of the heavy snow band is also a difficult thing to pinpoint, but a well defined deformation zone and frontogenesis to the NW of the low track points to this signal. The winds will be gusty throughout the day on Wednesday, with the strongest gusts across coastal Connecticut and coastal Long Island. The winds will gust up to 30 mph across New York City, and 35 to 45 mph across coastal sections of Connecticut and Long Island. This will result in periods of near-blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Every model except the Euro has alot of snow for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Every model except the Euro has alot of snow for the whole area. that is why upton said the latest euro run is a outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 2-4 ? No way we are only going to get that little That’s the 3k. 12k gives the city significantly more even on the anti-weenie (snow depth) maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: @NJwx85 could you post the 12km accum map. 12k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Except your post made it seem like it was worse for the whole subforum. Hence the reaction. It ended up better than it first appeared, and with the board crashing, it was difficult to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I hate these sharp gradient storms with sharp cutoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It ended up better than it first appeared, and with the board crashing, it was difficult to clarify. It looked worse initially to me as well. Just like the Euro looked better initially earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem might look wetter than 12z based on black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I put a lot of thought into this, final call Inside the pink line - 1-3" Inside the light blue line - 2-5" Inside the dark blue line - 4-8" Inside the green line - 5-10" Inside the red line - 6-12" Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: It looked worse initially to me as well. Just like the Euro looked better initially earlier. I saw the same changes at H5 on the NAM as I did on the Euro, that's why I said we were in trouble. As it turns out, the NAM wasn't that bad, however nothing says it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: that is why upton said the latest euro run is a outlier The Euro still had over 1 inch of LE for the City and points to the immediate north. It cut back on totals to the "not so immediate north", but it was not such a horrendous run. How, I did not see the EPS, but if they are as bad as everyone suggests, that may signal that something is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I put a lot of thought into this, final call Inside the pink line - 1-3" Inside the light blue line - 2-5" Inside the dark blue line - 4-8" Inside the green line - 5-10" Inside the red line - 6-12" Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts. I'm thinking 6-12" for most of the subforum with locally 18" depending on where the heavy bands set up excluding eastern LI. Daaam Yanks. You have me riding the 2" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I put a lot of thought into this, final call Inside the pink line - 1-3" Inside the light blue line - 2-5" Inside the dark blue line - 4-8" Inside the green line - 5-10" Inside the red line - 6-12" Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts. 2-5in for the city? I personally think double that if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'm reading some people saying the Euro/EPS slow down cutoff lows too much, thus making the cutoff too far south. Just food for thought. I agree that the northern cutoff will be a doozy wherever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I saw the same changes at H5 on the NAM as I did on the Euro, that's why I said we were in trouble. As it turns out, the NAM wasn't that bad, however nothing says it's correct. Yup. I saw the same thing too. That's all I was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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