hudsonvalley21 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Upton's latest snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That 12k NAM tho...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z RGEM bumped North 12z 18z Looks good. Also RGEM has very little sleet for NYC/LI (just a few hours before 14z when the precip cranks up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Me thinks this is far too conservative. Conservative has been the way to go for the last three storms, especially for the coast. This storm will have better BL temps, and the banding should be right over 95, I just think the 12-18" is overdone. I basically have NYC in the 3-6" range which isn't bad for March 21st. Whomever manages to get under that deformation band will cash in, no doubt about that. But how many hours of non accumulating snow will fall before and after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I could be wrong, just think that the usual areas on the South shore have mixing issues. And the 3k NAM actually has you flirting with dry air That's 2AM Thursday. Everyone is flirting with dry air by then. Besides, with that scale, the difference between the light greens and the browns could be trivial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Conservative has been the way to go for the last three storms, especially for the coast. This storm will have better BL temps, and the banding should be right over 95, I just think the 12-18" is overdone. I basically have NYC in the 3-6" range which isn't bad for March 21st. Whomever manages to get under that deformation band will cash in, no doubt about that. But how many hours of non accumulating snow will fall before and after? That makes sense. I might be ignoring climo too much, and maybe the Euro too. But even if you blend those in I like a 6-12 call right now for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 FWIW the 18z RGEM put up a 30"+ spot over Eastern Burlington County and 20"+ spot over Western Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: That makes sense. I might be ignoring climo too much, and maybe the Euro too. But even if you blend those in I like a 6-12 call right now for the city. And now I'll probably stay up for tonight's Euro...Was hoping I wouldn't have to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Me thinks this is far too conservative. Is that a joke? He has most of central NJ at 2-5", we're under a warning for 13-17" right now and most models jackpot that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: That's 2AM Thursday. Everyone is flirting with dry air by then. Besides, with that scale, the difference between the light greens and the browns could be trivial. If you look at total QPF though you can see the slightly lower amounts to the South of LI. Not saying it's right, just making an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: 2-5in for the city? I personally think double that if not more. that is a joke forecast for the city dude.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NYC- 7.1" LGA- 6.8" JFK- 5.6" ISP- 4.8" PHL- 10.2" TTN- 11.8" DC- 8.1" BOS- 5.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If you look at total QPF though you can see the slightly lower amounts to the South of LI. Not saying it's right, just making an observation. The 3K NAM always jumps precip around run to run. It tries to find the banding and always shifts it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Surprised at the lack of fanfare about the 12k. I know it's just one run of one model, but damn that was one for the photo album. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: FWIW the 18z RGEM put up a 30"+ spot over Eastern Burlington County and 20"+ spot over Western Suffolk. Pretty amazing stuff. And if that bumps north at all, a lot of us could be talking about those totals too. Won't take much of a bump to do that. As is, it looks like Hoboken/NYC is in the 1.5-1.75 LE Range and not too far away from the next range upwards (or downwards, I suppose, depending on your perspective). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: That makes sense. I might be ignoring climo too much, and maybe the Euro too. But even if you blend those in I like a 6-12 call right now for the city. upton said the euro run was a outlier.. they discounted it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If you look at total QPF though you can see the slightly lower amounts to the South of LI. Not saying it's right, just making an observation. If it is right, there will be less snow on the fish. Honestly, the placement of the heavier bands is not known yet. That picture (and all the others) will shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, nycwinter said: upton said the euro run was a outlier.. they discounted it... Saying it's an outlier isn't discounting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I know this storm is different than the previous few but we have been down this road before. Conservative is the way to go for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: That makes sense. I might be ignoring climo too much, and maybe the Euro too. But even if you blend those in I like a 6-12 call right now for the city. I just think that you're going to have a hard time accumulating in the city, aside from parts of SI and Northern Queens. I guess you could group parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx in there too. If temps were 33-34 like the last three storms, I would be going with 1-3" in NYC. I think 3-6" is a good call, because you're going to lose some to melting even with great rates. If everything works out perfectly, then the city could do much better than that, or if the EPS is correct, maybe everyone misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: If it is right, there will be less snow on the fish. Honestly, the placement of the heavier bands is not known yet. That picture (and all the others) will shift around. This is why I enjoy taking stabs at making forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I just think that you're going to have a hard time accumulating in the city, aside from parts of SI and Northern Queens. I guess you could group parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx in there too. If temps were 33-34 like the last three storms, I would be going with 1-3" in NYC. I think 3-6" is a good call, because you're going to lose some to melting even with great rates. If everything works out perfectly, then the city could do much better than that, but I still cannot get past the Euro being so far South. That's really scary at such a close range. Especially how funny the NAM looked wanting to follow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem has over a foot for the NYC area This has the makings of a huge snowstorm for the area with the low stalling. Temps will be cold for most of it to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Too low last storm the hamptons somehow got 18 inches.. with temps above freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, seanick said: now why is this map different from the NWS map that someone posted 7 posts before this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I just think that you're going to have a hard time accumulating in the city, aside from parts of SI and Northern Queens. I guess you could group parts of upper Manhattan and the Bronx in there too. If temps were 33-34 like the last three storms, I would be going with 1-3" in NYC. I think 3-6" is a good call, because you're going to lose some to melting even with great rates. If everything works out perfectly, then the city could do much better than that, or if the EPS is correct, maybe everyone misses. Eps is skewed by way east members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Too low That's fine. I'll take climo, but obviously with all the moisture around it could easily be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: now why is this map different from the NWS map that someone posted 7 posts before this ? One is a range, one is a best guess specific number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.