March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Keep in mind, fantasy

Closer to reality

The truth is probably somewhere in between, but I definitely wouldn't go with 15" in Manhattan. 

2-4 ?

No way we are only going  to get that little

[Rjay]

19 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

 

Snow will overspread the area from the coast into the interior
during the morning hours becoming heavy with snowfall rates of
1 to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. This could possibly move
in as early as late morning at the coast. As for the guidance,
since the 06Z run there has been a shift to the southeast with
the axis of heaviest precipitation, which now appears to be from
NYC northeast across Long Island and southern Connecticut. This
area has liquid equivalent amounts around 1.5 inches, with
lesser amount to the NW. Much of the area by the time the event
ends Wednesday night will receive between 10 to 16 inches of
snowfall with localized higher amounts. Briefly, there could be
a mix with sleet at the coast in the morning.

Unlike previous storms, this airmass is colder and drier and
with the onset of the moderate to heavy snowfall, temperatures
will likely remain at or below freezing for much of the event.
Thus, expect a higher snowfall ratio, closer to 10:1 or even
higher.

There is some uncertainty with the ECMWF solution pointing to
lower liquid equivalent amounts, but it appears to be an
outlier from the respect of a weaker closed low off the New
England coast by Wednesday night. The exact placement of the
heavy snow band is also a difficult thing to pinpoint, but a
well defined deformation zone and frontogenesis to the NW of
the low track points to this signal.

The winds will be gusty throughout the day on Wednesday, with
the strongest gusts across coastal Connecticut and coastal Long
Island. The winds will gust up to 30 mph across New York City,
and 35 to 45 mph across coastal sections of Connecticut and Long
Island. This will result in periods of near-blizzard conditions.

[MJO812]

Every model except the Euro has alot of snow for the whole area.

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Every model except the Euro has alot of snow for the whole area.

that is why upton said the latest euro run is a outlier

[romba]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

2-4 ?

No way we are only going  to get that little

That’s the 3k. 12k gives the city significantly more even on the anti-weenie (snow depth) maps.

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

@NJwx85 could you post the 12km accum map.

12k nam

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Except your post made it seem like it was worse for the whole subforum.  Hence the reaction.

It ended up better than it first appeared, and with the board crashing, it was difficult to clarify.

[White Gorilla]

I hate these sharp gradient storms with sharp  cutoffs 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It ended up better than it first appeared, and with the board crashing, it was difficult to clarify.

It looked worse initially to me as well.   Just like the Euro looked better initially earlier. 

[F5TornadoF5]

Rgem might look wetter than 12z based on black and white maps.

[NJwx85]

I put a lot of thought into this, final call

Inside the pink line - 1-3"

Inside the light blue line - 2-5"

Inside the dark blue line - 4-8"

Inside the green line - 5-10"

Inside the red line - 6-12"

Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Rjay said:

It looked worse initially to me as well.   Just like the Euro looked better initially earlier. 

I saw the same changes at H5 on the NAM as I did on the Euro, that's why I said we were in trouble. As it turns out, the NAM wasn't that bad, however nothing says it's correct.

[NYCGreg]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

that is why upton said the latest euro run is a outlier

The Euro still had over 1 inch of LE for the City and points to the immediate north.  It cut back on totals to the "not so immediate north", but it was not such a horrendous run.  How, I did not see the EPS, but if they are as bad as everyone suggests, that may signal that something is up.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I put a lot of thought into this, final call

Inside the pink line - 1-3"

Inside the light blue line - 2-5"

Inside the dark blue line - 4-8"

Inside the green line - 5-10"

Inside the red line - 6-12"

Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts.

 

 

I'm thinking 6-12" for most of the subforum with locally 18" depending on where the heavy bands set up excluding eastern LI.

Daaam Yanks.  You have me riding the 2" line.

[F5TornadoF5]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I put a lot of thought into this, final call

Inside the pink line - 1-3"

Inside the light blue line - 2-5"

Inside the dark blue line - 4-8"

Inside the green line - 5-10"

Inside the red line - 6-12"

Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts.

2-5in for the city? I personally think double that if not more. 

[Gravity Wave]

I'm reading some people saying the Euro/EPS slow down cutoff lows too much, thus making the cutoff too far south. Just food for thought. I agree that the northern cutoff will be a doozy wherever it is.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I saw the same changes at H5 on the NAM as I did on the Euro, that's why I said we were in trouble. As it turns out, the NAM wasn't that bad, however nothing says it's correct.

Yup. I saw the same thing too.   That's all I was saying

[mikem81]

18Z RGEM looks sick on the pretty color cycle

[mikem81]

[mikem81]

[mikem81]

[mikem81]

[NJwx85]

Just now, Rjay said:

I'm thinking 6-12" for most of the subforum with locally 18" depending on where the heavy bands set up excluding eastern LI.

Dam Yanks.  You have me riding the 2" line.

I could be wrong, just think that the usual areas on the South shore have mixing issues.

And the 3k NAM actually has you flirting with dry air

[mikem81]

Still going at 10pm...

 

[Ericjcrash]

Have a snow pellet or 2 right now. 

[Rjay]

Here's total precip on the euro btw

[Joe4alb]

Quote

The first of two coastal lows will pass to the south and east
of the area this evening. A confluent flow aloft and a polar
high to the north will keep the area primarily dry with a light
wintry mix possibly along the coast early this evening before
conditions dry out.

The main focus of concern then shifts to an upper low over the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys that translates east tonight ahead
of a northern branch shortwave trough moving into the upper
Great Lakes. The latter feature will maintain a downstream
polar high across eastern Canada with an anomalously cold
airmass in place for the start of the spring. At the same time,
a second coastal low will take shape off the Mid Atlantic coast
overnight in response to the forcing from the approaching upper
low. It is this storm that will bring snow into the region
toward daybreak along the coast, which will be the start of what
appears to be the potential for one of the biggest snowfalls
since 1960.

As for temperatures, lows will range from the upper 20s across
the interior to the lower 30s at the coast. This is nearly
seasonable due to the insulating affect of the cloud cover.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Snow will overspread the area from the coast into the interior during the morning hours becoming heavy with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour in the afternoon. This could possibly move in as early as late morning at the coast. As for the guidance, since the 06Z run there has been a shift to the southeast with the axis of heaviest precipitation, which now appears to be from NYC northeast across Long Island and southern Connecticut. This area has liquid equivalent amounts around 1.5 inches, with lesser amount to the NW. Much of the area by the time the event ends Wednesday night will receive between 10 to 16 inches of snowfall with localized higher amounts. Briefly, there could be a mix with sleet at the coast in the morning. Unlike previous storms, this airmass is colder and drier and with the onset of the moderate to heavy snowfall, temperatures will likely remain at or below freezing for much of the event. Thus, expect a higher snowfall ratio, closer to 10:1 or even higher. There is some uncertainty with the ECMWF solution pointing to lower liquid equivalent amounts, but it appears to be an outlier from the respect of a weaker closed low off the New England coast by Wednesday night. The exact placement of the heavy snow band is also a difficult thing to pinpoint, but a well defined deformation zone and frontogenesis to the NW of the low track points to this signal. The winds will be gusty throughout the day on Wednesday, with the strongest gusts across coastal Connecticut and coastal Long Island. The winds will gust up to 30 mph across New York City, and 35 to 45 mph across coastal sections of Connecticut and Long Island. This will result in periods of near-blizzard conditions.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

[wxman]

This may belong in banter....but seeing my NWS forecast made me reflect on how times have changed climo-wise over the past decade.  As I think about huddling up as a kid to my brown box Radio Shack NOAA weather radio hoping for that winter storm watch for 6" of snow...and only dreaming of forecasts like this, reserved mainly for folks out West:

Somerset-
Including the city of Somerville
330 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow this evening, then snow
likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Cold.
Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...A slight chance of thunderstorms. Snow. Snow may be
heavy at times in the afternoon. Additional snow accumulation of
8 to 12 inches. Blustery. Near steady temperature around 30.
Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the morning.
Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Total snow accumulation of 12 to
18 inches. Cold. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. North
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow near
100 percent.

 

Seems like now these local forecasts aren't all that surprising around these parts.  

[NJwx85]

18z RGEM bumped North

12z

18z

[Wetbulbs88]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I put a lot of thought into this, final call

Inside the pink line - 1-3"

Inside the light blue line - 2-5"

Inside the dark blue line - 4-8"

Inside the green line - 5-10"

Inside the red line - 6-12"

Locally higher amounts possible in banding. Wouldn't shock me if someone pulled out 18", however confidence is below average on the higher amounts.

Me thinks this is far too conservative.