Capt. Adam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I think NWS Mt. Holly is doing a good job framing this up, as well, regarding snow totals. From their 12:35 pm AFD - The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we expect at least 5 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements ne MD and N DE. We forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces including homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the power outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should trigger a sharp increase in power outages. Also wind driven wet snow or freezing rain clinging to branches and wires will be part of the power outage problem. Our forecast amounts are presented on our winter wx page and social media briefing packages serves as a good start! Finally, heaviest accumulations will be found in the hilly areas, with less in the urban centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvn139 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: I'm in Trenton and nothing. Saw a random flake here or there. I had the same random flakes. Have since stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: DZG = dendritic growth zone...i.e., the levels (temperatures) in the levels in the atmosphere where the fluffiest snowflakes form. With the best lift being below those levels, snowflake production won't be as efficient and you won't get such big fluffy dendrites, which are what make for high snow to liquid ratios. Instead you'll get lesser quality dendrites, needles, plates that pack together more closely. it doesn't mean less snow will fall, but it won't pile up as deep. On another note, here at the surface at 1PM on the first day of spring it is 32F and overcast with a steady northeast breeze. Definitely a different feel than before the prior March snowstorms. Yeah feels like feb not march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NWS NYC just went 14" - 16" basically for the whole area outside of far SE/NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: I think NWS Mt. Holly is doing a good job framing this up, as well, regarding snow totals. From their 12:35 pm AFD - The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we expect at least 5 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements ne MD and N DE. We forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces including homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the power outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should trigger a sharp increase in power outages. Also wind driven wet snow or freezing rain clinging to branches and wires will be part of the power outage problem. Our forecast amounts are presented on our winter wx page and social media briefing packages serves as a good start! Finally, heaviest accumulations will be found in the hilly areas, with less in the urban centers. Not convinced this will be the case, if temps are upper 20s and a decent amount is falling outside of peak sun hours with high rates, I think NYC will be fine We are in the mid/upper 30s with 10s dewpoints right now. Another world compared to the other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Flakes the size of 50 cent coins here in Toms River. Visibility < 1 mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like snow has made it to the 195 corridor Mercer to Mamouth/Ocean...creeping north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Not convinced this will be the case, if temps are upper 20s and a decent amount is falling outside of peak sun hours with high rates, I think NYC will be fine We are in the mid/upper 30s with 10s dewpoints right now. Another world compared to the other storms. Exactly, anyone comparing this to the other storms is in for a big surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Nice echos to the south of LISent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 First flakes in TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Ukie! My god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Ukie! Impressive!! much wider coverage of the 30-40mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 the cold sfc temps should allow for less sticking to branches and thus fewer power outages than the early month storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ukie! Correct me if I'm mistaken Rjay, but it seems to me like 850s are even slightly colder than 00z on the UKie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ukie! Wrecked. Congrats I-95. I haven’t seen a double digit storm in 3 years, I really think this will break my drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The UKIE pretty much shows 40MM for NYC Proper (the dividing line between 30-40 and 40-50 is right there), and that is over 1.5 inches of liquid. Even at 8:1 ratios, that is 12.6 inches of snow. And a slight tick north gets us into even more. Great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Upton is all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: Correct me if I'm mistaken Rjay, but it seems to me like 850s are even slightly colder than 00z on the UKie I only glanced but they look pretty similar (within a degree C). The surface is a touch colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, MikeS said: Upton is all in That's old though, wait for the 4pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Precip has been reaching the ground once ceilings hit 5-6,000 feet. It won't take much at the moment near NYC if this keeps advancing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I only glanced but they look pretty similar (within a degree C). The surface is a touch colder. Yeah, meteograms for NYC at least show temps being similar, maybe slightly warmer. Was trying to compare the 6 hour maps, but that can be tough. Maybe it is further east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Models are converging on a 12+ inch snowstorm for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Starting to stick to grass here. Roads are still fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Mt. Holly may increase amounts for Central NJ at this rate. Currently 11-15" forecast, could see 12-18" with locally higher amounts if these trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Mt. Holly may increase amounts for Central NJ at this rate. Currently 11-15" forecast, could see 12-18" with locally higher amounts if these trends continue. oh man u seem ALL IN on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Precip has been reaching the ground once ceilings hit 5-6,000 feet. It won't take much at the moment near NYC if this keeps advancing north. Radar filling in rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 hmmm mayb NYC public schools will close tomorrow..... any takers!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Models are converging on a 12+ inch snowstorm for the NYC area. Euro's got the floor now. I'm hoping it comes north a bit to get the heavier snow axis it portrayed last night up to the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: hmmm mayb NYC public schools will close tomorrow..... any takers!?! Put the phone down and pay attention in class! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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