Capt. Adam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Really curious to see today's Euro. The rest of guidance has gone all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Capt. Adam said: Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1. TT only has a 10:1 map for the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1.Why? Whole column is cold. 8 or 10 ain’t crazy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 20 inches of snow for Manhattan in late March?? I love snow and all, but this is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: GGEM is on crack 12-20" everywhere Hi res rgem has 12-20 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 We have almost as much QPF with the storm as we did with the nonexistent for NYC March 2001 .storm can we erase the curse of 2001 .? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1. None of those would be much lower. The Kuchera might even be higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Hi res rgem has 12-20 also HRDPS is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1. It's not overdone with this storm I don't get why people are so conservative with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1.Why? Whole column is cold. 8 or 10 ain’t crazy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 look at soundings. almost all the lift is below the DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10:1 will verify in higher elevations. The city will probably be different. Have to temper expectations on snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 *Dick Enberg voice* Oh, my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: look at soundings. almost all the lift is below the DGZ DGZ? Is that short for deformation zone? Dendritic Growth Zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: We have almost as much QPF with the storm as we did with the nonexistent for NYC March 2001 .storm can we erase the curse of 2001 .? What curse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvn139 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Still virga down here. Should start up real soon though. Snow has begun in Freehold NJ. Albeit flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: It's not overdone with this storm I don't get why people are so conservative with this storm Because it's almost April and has never happened before. The understated cold and overcast has me slightly more intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 UKMET looks rather similar to 00zz...is a tick weaker and SW of 00z by hour 48 as the low occludes precip should be out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: None of those would be much lower. The Kuchera might even be higher... Umm, NO. Still a heckuva storm for any time of the year...epic for the first full day of Spring as far as I'm concerned...and I'm lovin' it, but these 10:1 20"+ maps are just being tossed about with little care imo. Good luck to all, hope everyone in this forum and others gets buried...safely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, weatherbear5 said: UKMET looks rather similar to 00zz...is a tick weaker and SW of 00z by hour 48 as the low occludes precip should be out soon UKMET was 30-40mm at 0z for NYC for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Umm, NO. IMO 10:1 is just fine NW of the CITY... CITY itself probably not much lower 8-9:1 ... so your really not taking much off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Will have to wait for total QPF, but it looks as though the UKIE at least held serve for coastal locales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: 10:1 maps have been and will work fine interior N & W. Can't just blanket disregard Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: look at soundings. almost all the lift is below the DGZ Of course most ignored this post. Forky - please elaborate. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Umm, NO. Upton’s looking pretty good with what they put out. 8-12 would be awesome for the 5 boroughs, anything above would be extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It looks like snow is almost up to Trenton now, can anyone confirm? I'm in Trenton and nothing. Saw a random flake here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Forky is right based on the literal model soundings but I think they underestimate the depth of the zone with best lift. That being said even interior SNE didn’t get 10:1 ratios in April 1997 and we’ll have plenty of riming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It's much colder than the last three storms, currently 35F with dews in the teens. It was around 33/34 during the last few storms. But I'm not convinced in those high amounts yet. Those are historic, all-time numbers and any sneaky warm layer, subsidence or last minute shifts could give us a lot less than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 31 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Of course most ignored this post. Forky - please elaborate. Thanks in advance. DGZ = dendritic growth zone...i.e., the levels (temperatures) in the levels in the atmosphere where the fluffiest snowflakes form. With the best lift being below those levels, snowflake production won't be as efficient and you won't get such big fluffy dendrites, which are what make for high snow to liquid ratios. Instead you'll get lesser quality dendrites, needles, plates that pack together more closely. it doesn't mean less snow will fall, but it won't pile up as deep. On another note, here at the surface at 1PM on the first day of spring it is 32F and overcast with a steady northeast breeze. Definitely a different feel than before the prior March snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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