MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1. It's not overdone with this storm I don't get why people are so conservative with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1.Why? Whole column is cold. 8 or 10 ain’t crazy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 look at soundings. almost all the lift is below the DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10:1 will verify in higher elevations. The city will probably be different. Have to temper expectations on snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 *Dick Enberg voice* Oh, my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: look at soundings. almost all the lift is below the DGZ DGZ? Is that short for deformation zone? Dendritic Growth Zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: We have almost as much QPF with the storm as we did with the nonexistent for NYC March 2001 .storm can we erase the curse of 2001 .? What curse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvn139 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Still virga down here. Should start up real soon though. Snow has begun in Freehold NJ. Albeit flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: It's not overdone with this storm I don't get why people are so conservative with this storm Because it's almost April and has never happened before. The understated cold and overcast has me slightly more intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 UKMET looks rather similar to 00zz...is a tick weaker and SW of 00z by hour 48 as the low occludes precip should be out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: None of those would be much lower. The Kuchera might even be higher... Umm, NO. Still a heckuva storm for any time of the year...epic for the first full day of Spring as far as I'm concerned...and I'm lovin' it, but these 10:1 20"+ maps are just being tossed about with little care imo. Good luck to all, hope everyone in this forum and others gets buried...safely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, weatherbear5 said: UKMET looks rather similar to 00zz...is a tick weaker and SW of 00z by hour 48 as the low occludes precip should be out soon UKMET was 30-40mm at 0z for NYC for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Umm, NO. IMO 10:1 is just fine NW of the CITY... CITY itself probably not much lower 8-9:1 ... so your really not taking much off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Will have to wait for total QPF, but it looks as though the UKIE at least held serve for coastal locales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: 10:1 maps have been and will work fine interior N & W. Can't just blanket disregard Again, the 10:1 maps are overdone. Post up a Kuchera, a Ferrier, a Positive Snow Depth change...anything but a 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: look at soundings. almost all the lift is below the DGZ Of course most ignored this post. Forky - please elaborate. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Umm, NO. Upton’s looking pretty good with what they put out. 8-12 would be awesome for the 5 boroughs, anything above would be extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It looks like snow is almost up to Trenton now, can anyone confirm? I'm in Trenton and nothing. Saw a random flake here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Forky is right based on the literal model soundings but I think they underestimate the depth of the zone with best lift. That being said even interior SNE didn’t get 10:1 ratios in April 1997 and we’ll have plenty of riming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It's much colder than the last three storms, currently 35F with dews in the teens. It was around 33/34 during the last few storms. But I'm not convinced in those high amounts yet. Those are historic, all-time numbers and any sneaky warm layer, subsidence or last minute shifts could give us a lot less than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 31 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Of course most ignored this post. Forky - please elaborate. Thanks in advance. DGZ = dendritic growth zone...i.e., the levels (temperatures) in the levels in the atmosphere where the fluffiest snowflakes form. With the best lift being below those levels, snowflake production won't be as efficient and you won't get such big fluffy dendrites, which are what make for high snow to liquid ratios. Instead you'll get lesser quality dendrites, needles, plates that pack together more closely. it doesn't mean less snow will fall, but it won't pile up as deep. On another note, here at the surface at 1PM on the first day of spring it is 32F and overcast with a steady northeast breeze. Definitely a different feel than before the prior March snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I think NWS Mt. Holly is doing a good job framing this up, as well, regarding snow totals. From their 12:35 pm AFD - The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we expect at least 5 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements ne MD and N DE. We forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces including homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the power outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should trigger a sharp increase in power outages. Also wind driven wet snow or freezing rain clinging to branches and wires will be part of the power outage problem. Our forecast amounts are presented on our winter wx page and social media briefing packages serves as a good start! Finally, heaviest accumulations will be found in the hilly areas, with less in the urban centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvn139 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: I'm in Trenton and nothing. Saw a random flake here or there. I had the same random flakes. Have since stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: DZG = dendritic growth zone...i.e., the levels (temperatures) in the levels in the atmosphere where the fluffiest snowflakes form. With the best lift being below those levels, snowflake production won't be as efficient and you won't get such big fluffy dendrites, which are what make for high snow to liquid ratios. Instead you'll get lesser quality dendrites, needles, plates that pack together more closely. it doesn't mean less snow will fall, but it won't pile up as deep. On another note, here at the surface at 1PM on the first day of spring it is 32F and overcast with a steady northeast breeze. Definitely a different feel than before the prior March snowstorms. Yeah feels like feb not march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NWS NYC just went 14" - 16" basically for the whole area outside of far SE/NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: I think NWS Mt. Holly is doing a good job framing this up, as well, regarding snow totals. From their 12:35 pm AFD - The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we expect at least 5 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements ne MD and N DE. We forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces including homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the power outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should trigger a sharp increase in power outages. Also wind driven wet snow or freezing rain clinging to branches and wires will be part of the power outage problem. Our forecast amounts are presented on our winter wx page and social media briefing packages serves as a good start! Finally, heaviest accumulations will be found in the hilly areas, with less in the urban centers. Not convinced this will be the case, if temps are upper 20s and a decent amount is falling outside of peak sun hours with high rates, I think NYC will be fine We are in the mid/upper 30s with 10s dewpoints right now. Another world compared to the other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like snow has made it to the 195 corridor Mercer to Mamouth/Ocean...creeping north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Not convinced this will be the case, if temps are upper 20s and a decent amount is falling outside of peak sun hours with high rates, I think NYC will be fine We are in the mid/upper 30s with 10s dewpoints right now. Another world compared to the other storms. Exactly, anyone comparing this to the other storms is in for a big surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Nice echos to the south of LISent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 First flakes in TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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