weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just wonder what the thermal profile of the CMC is verbatim, considering the 540 line runs through Trenton up into Poughkeepsie at 18z. not that I'm saying I buy the CMC thermals, but just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It looks like snow is almost up to Trenton now, can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: Just wonder what the thermal profile of the CMC is verbatim, considering the 540 line runs through Trenton up into Poughkeepsie at 18z. not that I'm saying I buy the CMC thermals, but just curious It's warm. Like you said, ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 According to the radar, it is snowing on top of me, but it's virga. Not a flurrie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It looks like snow is almost up to Trenton now, can anyone confirm? Can't speak for Trenton, but it has been snowing here for around an hour. I am about 35 miles south-southwest. Edit: Per 511nj.org's traffic cams, it's snowing at the Columbus/Florence exit of I-295, which isn't terribly far from Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 BTW News 12 is saying a good swath of 6-10 for north of the ACE to I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Look out, this doesn't happen every day, but I'm going bullish. I'd say widespread 8-12" forum wide with areas of 15" depending on where banding sets up. To me it's a great look aloft which should support heavy snow rates and a very nice CCB tomorrow afternoon/evening. Mid level evolution/tracks are about classic. What can go wrong though-stubborn warm layer aloft, subsidence zones in between banding, surface temps ending up at 34 in the city instead of 30-31 where it would really stick. But I think we have as good a shot for this to work out on March 20th as anything I've seen. Look out for power outages-especially on LI where it could really be pasty/thick wet snow for most of it and winds will make that worse. If it gets crazy here I'll definitely make it to the boardwalk and take pics. I promise I won't wimp out again like on 1/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 if we get a foot in the city tomorrow that would be the latest a foot has ever fallen in central park dating back to 1869.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rain/Snow line is slowly creeping north... but every now and then drops back quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: According to the radar, it is snowing on top of me, but it's virga. Not a flurrie Use radarscope. 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Lock it up. 5 on the NESIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It looks like snow is almost up to Trenton now, can anyone confirm? Still virga down here. Should start up real soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Rain/Snow line is slowly creeping north... but every now and then drops back quickly The real show is tomorrow, this is mostly an appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Look out, this doesn't happen every day, but I'm going bullish. I'd say widespread 8-12" forum wide with areas of 15" depending on where banding sets up. To me it's a great look aloft which should support heavy snow rates and a very nice CCB tomorrow afternoon/evening. Mid level evolution/tracks are about classic. What can go wrong though-stubborn warm layer aloft, subsidence zones in between banding, surface temps ending up at 34 in the city instead of 30-31 where it would really stick. But I think we have as good a shot for this to work out on March 20th as anything I've seen. Look out for power outages-especially on LI where it could really be pasty/thick wet snow for most of it and winds will make that worse. If it gets crazy here I'll definitely make it to the boardwalk and take pics. I promise I won't wimp out again like on 1/4. I have a hunch it'll end up as cold or colder than modeled and won't have a problem accumulating. The wildcard is the low says further SE and the heavy bands don't make it far enough west. That's why I think Philly to Monmouth to Nassau is the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Long duration cold event .happy spring now !Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I have a hunch it'll end up as cold or colder than modeled and won't have a problem accumulating. The wildcard is the low says further SE and the heavy bands don't make it far enough west. That's why I think Philly to Monmouth to Nassau is the jackpot The snow will likely be heavier down here but will stick easier north and west. So I figure it will even out in terms of snow totals. But where the banding sets up is obviously a wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GGEM is on crack 12-20" everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeTwentyFour Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Look out, this doesn't happen every day, but I'm going bullish. I'd say widespread 8-12" forum wide with areas of 15" depending on where banding sets up. To me it's a great look aloft which should support heavy snow rates and a very nice CCB tomorrow afternoon/evening. Mid level evolution/tracks are about classic. What can go wrong though-stubborn warm layer aloft, subsidence zones in between banding, surface temps ending up at 34 in the city instead of 30-31 where it would really stick. But I think we have as good a shot for this to work out on March 20th as anything I've seen. Look out for power outages-especially on LI where it could really be pasty/thick wet snow for most of it and winds will make that worse. If it gets crazy here I'll definitely make it to the boardwalk and take pics. I promise I won't wimp out again like on 1/4. I really want to believe you. We've been screwed the last few times here on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 North shore LI vs south shore LI differences this time around ?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: GGEM is on crack 12-20" everywhere Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: Map? If I could post I would, can't clear old files on mobile.... 12+ for literally everyone except eastern Suffolk. The CCB is gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Friends 50 miles North Baltimore say its snowing,,,,,they are 25 miles east of Philly,,,waiting to hear from a friend in New Hope PA ( close to philly ) Im looking at the radar and damn its not making it to the ground but that virga is all the way up to me in New City / Rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Map? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018032012&fh=36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wave 1 incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: Wave 1 incoming... Don't think anything meaningful makes it up here, interesting to watch though. UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Holy cannoli (i’m running out of exclamations here) the CMC AND HDRPS Nuke the area in agreement with the 12k NAM. This is happening. 10-18” is starting to seem attainable, I’m officially excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Thanks, looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Whenever you seeing indigo colors on the clown maps you know your in for something special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The classic CT river valley dry push signature is evident right now. You can see how the precip advances faster across EPA than it does over NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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