Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: 12k NAM is a huge hit in NYC and on LI. AOA 1.5 inches from the city eastward, .5 inches up to the NW tip of NJ. brief, sneaky isothermal layer over parts of LI around 850mb around 15z, but I'd say the lions share of that is snow, maybe briefly mixed with sleet. Surface temps plenty cold as well edit: also, idk what I was looking at earlier that told me it would be mainly a late day storm... must have been exhaustion from being up through all the 00z runs and for the 6z NAM and GFS lol starts in earnest before noon on the NAM 5-6 am through about 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: playing devil's advocate here...what about climatology and the sun angle if we get a foot ,, that would be the latest nyc ever got a foot of snow..and we are talking about decades when their was no climate change going back to `1869... Until 2011 it never snowed in October before either. There's always a first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Thunder has been added to point and click. With that much lift, it's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Tornado watch for Northern and Central FL We will have to see how widespread the activity is down there, and if it can help to pump the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Kind of a cool new feature for the 3k NAM, showing <0.25 mile visibility tomorrow. lol I hope this feature is more accurate than the one that was showing 6"/hour snowfall rates over the city during the bum cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 per NAM wave 1 and wave 2 merge and the snow really never stops from later today on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Until 2011 it never snowed in October before either. There's always a first SURE IT DID LESS THAN AN INCH AND TRACES BUT BEFORE 2011 FOR SURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I love the NAM showing rain from 21-01Z this evening...not a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I love the NAM showing rain from 21-01Z this evening...not a chance You think the initial surge of precip makes it to the city/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NWS is always going to give the worst case scenario as its concerned with public safety and would rather bust high than low. I find that TWC is usually in the middle ground. That being said, even NWS was low for me in the last storm. They were forecast in 6 and I got 9.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3km says nyet to wave 1 but the 12km is showing a couple hours of sleet for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: SURE IT DID LESS THAN AN INCH AND TRACES BUT BEFORE 2011 FOR SURE. i'm talking about the city the odds of the city getting a foot of snow in late march would be 1% at best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I love the NAM showing rain from 21-01Z this evening...not a chance You see risk of mostly sleet on LI? Seems to be a warm layer from 700-800 mb for first half of storm until H7 low passes to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, nycwinter said: i'm talking about the city the odds of the city getting a foot of snow in late march would be 1% at best.. While I agree it's low, obviously higher than 1% given this run and how much moisture is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now. Not for us in and around NYC proper it isn't. A small tick to the N/NW and we're in the jackpot zone, and the movement of the low a bit to the East probably got the Coast out of the mix zone and into the all snow area (though I have not seen anyone's reports on that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Based on B&W maps, but the 12z RGEM looks further Southeast than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: Not for us in and around NYC proper it isn't. A small tick to the N/NW and we're in the jackpot zone, and the movement of the low a bit to the East probably got the Coast out of the mix zone and into the all snow area (though I have not seen anyone's reports on that). If the storm verified exactly as what the mid-levels are showing on the NAM, NYC would spend most of the storm right on the NW edge of the best banding. That's not a great place to be. We want that to shift a solid 30-40 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Don't forget that for a storm like this, the models generally SLIGHTLY underestimate the N&W extent of the outermost band b/c of their resolution limits. I.e there's normally a band of good lift at or just outside of the zone of highest modeled QPF (if you took the 12Z NAM verbatim, likely over NYC/Bergen Co.) then an area of relative subsidence then another wetter / warmer band (but still mainly snow, if the conditions are right) closer to the mid level low. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Based on B&W maps, but the 12z RGEM looks further Southeast than 06z. Looks the same to me. Only out to 36hours that I see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If the storm verified exactly as what the mid-levels are showing on the NAM, NYC would spend most of the storm right on the NW edge of the best banding. That's not a great place to be. We want that to shift a solid 30-40 miles inland. I hear you. Banding is obviously a nowcasting type of thing, but storms this winter - for the most part, anyway - have had at least small ticks NW in their banding. I guess the possible exception was last week's storm, but I'm not sure about that. I'd rather not be in the jackpot zone right now, to be honest. I'd also not like to need a 50-100 mile shift, like we needed for last week's storm, either. I think this is a happy medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I know that stuff typically belongs in the vendor thread, but I believe he's Earthlight, so it would be ok to post his tweet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: No chance that precip map verifies, it’s on its own. That huge gap between philly and NYC is bogus and it’s way overdone for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like it starts as sleet from 10Z to 14Z on the RGEM then goes to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I counted about 20 hours of snow for NYC on the 12z RGEM Starts as some sleet, changes over around 12z Stops around 07-08z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 IDK the banding placement on the RGEM looks better for us than on the 6z. Precip maps will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: I know that stuff typically belongs in the vendor thread, but I believe he's Earthlight, so it would be ok to post his tweet here. That's fine to post here as its only a model run, not an official forecast/snow map etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem is around a foot for nyc and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Heavy banding comes in right at nightfall, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: IDK the banding placement on the RGEM looks better for us than on the 6z. Precip maps will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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