SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Definitely feel the heaviest amounts will be south of the city. Rgem snowfall map is probably a good indicator of what's going to happen imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The crappy German model shifted slightly North with wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: It only goes out 48 hours... The snow is long over by hour 48 on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12z GFS is coming in a tad flatter, confluence a bit stronger. Pretty typical GFS nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The RGEM looks more like 7-9 inches for NYC using the meteograms. The other data can be misleading overall, I find the metograms are closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem is around a foot for nyc and LI 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The 3k NAM still has a wicked cutoff over the interior. @UlsterCountySnowZ, @Animal and @snywx close to smoking cirrus. The NAM went from JP my hood to partly cloudy skies in 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS looks more tucked in at 30, more precip to the NW. Should be better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z GFS is coming in a tad flatter, confluence a bit stronger. Pretty typical GFS nonsense. looks more tucked through hour 30 (and yes I'm looking at the right run this time, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Snowing on LBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12z GFS actually closes off the 500mb low faster and therefore closer to the coast than 06z. Doesn't look like it made a huge difference at the surface either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS looks nice, good banding all along I-95 at 8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: looks more tucked through hour 30 (and yes I'm looking at the right run this time, lol) Closed off faster, made a difference despite the weaker look initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like most of the rest of the guidance now. It's a lot wetter for Northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Pretty classic CCB signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: On the NAM 3km, at 22z Wed. Is that a possible 3rd low pressure? The RGEM has 3 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS looks great. 1 inch plus of precip for almost everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like most of the rest of the guidance now. It's a lot wetter for Northern NJ GAME ON... but the game already was except for a few weenie jumps people were taking with some of the overnight runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: GFS looks great. 1 inch plus of precip for almost everyone Snow lingers into Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 At work and have only been able to glance at models. Saw the huge 12 km NAM hit but puzzled by the big gap in snowfall amounts for much of NJ from Philly to NYC on the 3 km NAM. Can't be sleet as TT counts sleet as snow. Rain? Less precip for some odd reason (banding?)? Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS a bomb as well, very tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 First glance, GGEM is crushjob. CCB looks legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The 12z GGEM is further NW than the GFS. Similar to the 12z ECMWF from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just wonder what the thermal profile of the CMC is verbatim, considering the 540 line runs through Trenton up into Poughkeepsie at 18z. not that I'm saying I buy the CMC thermals, but just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It looks like snow is almost up to Trenton now, can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: Just wonder what the thermal profile of the CMC is verbatim, considering the 540 line runs through Trenton up into Poughkeepsie at 18z. not that I'm saying I buy the CMC thermals, but just curious It's warm. Like you said, ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It looks like snow is almost up to Trenton now, can anyone confirm? Can't speak for Trenton, but it has been snowing here for around an hour. I am about 35 miles south-southwest. Edit: Per 511nj.org's traffic cams, it's snowing at the Columbus/Florence exit of I-295, which isn't terribly far from Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Look out, this doesn't happen every day, but I'm going bullish. I'd say widespread 8-12" forum wide with areas of 15" depending on where banding sets up. To me it's a great look aloft which should support heavy snow rates and a very nice CCB tomorrow afternoon/evening. Mid level evolution/tracks are about classic. What can go wrong though-stubborn warm layer aloft, subsidence zones in between banding, surface temps ending up at 34 in the city instead of 30-31 where it would really stick. But I think we have as good a shot for this to work out on March 20th as anything I've seen. Look out for power outages-especially on LI where it could really be pasty/thick wet snow for most of it and winds will make that worse. If it gets crazy here I'll definitely make it to the boardwalk and take pics. I promise I won't wimp out again like on 1/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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