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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Not the greatest run for NW sections, but much improved over 06z as expected.

The strongest banding signals have shifted away from the interior and more towards LI and C/SN NJ

sketched_5ab1182a4367c.png

This run seems a lot more realistic than 6z or last night's 0z but the nam has been waffling so we'll have to wait a few more runs

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

This run seems a lot more realistic than 6z or last night's 0z but the nam has been waffling so we'll have to wait a few more runs

Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now.

sketched_5ab1198542011.png

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1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said:

 

For Ocean County Southward. Looks like it turns to rain earlier.

Okay, just a friendly FYI

Nobody here cares about Ocean County and points Southward. By saying it's warmer, you're actually misleading people that live here.

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12k NAM is a huge hit in NYC and on LI.  AOA 1.5 inches from the city eastward, .5 inches up to the NW tip of NJ.

brief, sneaky isothermal layer over parts of LI around 850mb around 15z, but I'd say the lions share of that is snow, maybe briefly mixed with sleet. 

Surface temps plenty cold as well

edit: also, idk what I was looking at earlier that told me it would be mainly a late day storm... must have been exhaustion from being up through all the 00z runs and for the 6z NAM and GFS lol

starts in earnest before noon on the NAM

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now.

sketched_5ab1198542011.png

 

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now.

sketched_5ab1198542011.png

 

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now.

sketched_5ab1198542011.png

playing devil's advocate here...what about climatology and the sun angle if we get a foot ,, that would be the latest nyc ever got a foot of snow..and we are talking about decades when their was no climate change going back to `1869...

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