WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 6Z NAM = not a bad look Remember January 2016. The only model to show snow for us and every other model caved to it after a few days. Plenty of time for this to trend North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Remember January 2016. The only model to show snow for us and every other model caved to it after a few days. Plenty of time for this to trend North. The global models have struggled mightily this winter. I think they are overdoing the confluence and the north trend will commence. The NAM has been reliable as of late, and the other hi-res models will be coming into range tomorrow. We'll found out soon if the NAM is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The one thing we know for sure is that the models didn't see the confluence to the north on their 168 hr forecasts a few days ago. So they all adjusted further south on the 12z Friday into 0z Saturday. Hopefully, they are overdoing the confluence now and we start to see some movement north next few days. This is a first for the season since we haven't had this type of pattern yet. In the past, the NAM has done well with these set ups once within it's best range of about 12-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 We are losing this one Meanwhile everyone is hyping this about this being the 4th noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We are losing this one Meanwhile everyone is hyping this about this being the 4th noreaster. I'd give it another day, but agree-the only models showing a hit are the out of range ones like the NAM and SREF's...we may go March 2014 on this one- bitter cold but bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Seems like a complex set up and we're 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 At least we have the NAM, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We are losing this one Meanwhile everyone is hyping this about this being the 4th noreaster. Ant your such a model hugger!! Just yesterday you were saying more likely a warm solution and “we are losing this one”... come on pick a side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Well, the 00Z runs were certainly a kick in the 'nads for snow lovers with no global model showing a hit north of 78 and only modest hits near 195; that and the fact that the models all showed significantly weaker, more sheared out storm(s) was not a good development (even if the ensembles for the GFS and CMC were better than the op runs). And at 6Z we have the GFS whiff vs. the NAM major hit. Given all of that, clearly the likelihood of a major snowstorm has been reduced somewhat for our area, but it's still on the table, given the uncertainties of the models this far out (still 3-4 days out as of 00Z) and the range of possibilities being shown by the models and the outcome for the 6Z NAM, which has, arguably, been the best model for snowstorms this winter. At this point, though, as per the NWS, a minor to moderate hit is looking more likely. Below is this morning's NWS discussion of the model trends, but highlighting the uncertainty. I'd say if we don't see a consensus move back to a significant snowstorm by Sunday morning, ~48 hours from the start of the event, it'll be unlikely we'll see such a significant move after that (at the very least, I wouldn't want to have to count on a major model/setup shift that close to the event). https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 619 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The focus in the long-term period continues to be on the midweek storm. A positive note is there has been a clear trend in the guidance over the past couple of cycles, including last night`s 00Z run, toward a more progressive solution that would favor a suppressed storm track for the first wave of low pressure Monday night-Tuesday and even more notably for the second wave Wednesday- Wednesday night. If these trends were to hold up, the extent, duration and severity of impacts would be much lower than what models were indicating 1-2 days ago. Given this storm is still 3-5 days out and the predictability skill for such a complex setup (with a parade of disturbances in play along with the potential for phasing to occur) is limited, it`s a bit premature to rule out a shift back in the other direction that would put us back in play for a long duration, higher-impact event from late Monday night through Wednesday night. The bottom line is the poor run-to- run continuity and lingering spread among the operational models and the individual ensemble forecast systems hinders our ability to provide specific details with high certainty, on things such as rain and snow accumulations, where the rain/snow line sets up and how it evolves over time, and the magnitude of winds/beach erosion/coastal flooding. Keeping the abovementioned caveats in mind, a huge motivating factor for cautiously maintaining our message for a potentially high-impact event is the vulnerability of our infrastructure following the recent Nor`easters this month: Trees have been weakened/damaged, restoration efforts are still ongoing, and soils in E PA and NJ are still very saturated. This all makes our region more susceptible than usual to another round of power outages and flooding IF a worst-case scenario would come to fruition...so we don`t want to let our guard down too soon. Concerning the rain vs. snow aspect of this storm... The track of the primary surface low will likely be south of our region (along the VA-NC border) while a secondary coastal low develops near Norfolk and tracks northeastward over or nearby the Gulf stream. Synoptically, this would be a favorable pattern for snow across the region. However, thermal profiles look to be marginally supportive of accumulating snow (more likely a rain-snow-sleet mix) at least initially, especially in the I-95 corridor and coastal plain, given the lack of cold air from a storm system of Pac NW origin and the influences of a high sun angle in late March. A transition to wet snow would be possible at some point as (1) Canadian high pressure building eastward allows cold air to drain southward into the region and (2) the coastal low deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast while the upper low reaches our longitude. The latter would favor strong dynamical cooling although it is highly conditional on deep ascent and heavier precip rates setting up over our region- which is becoming increasingly doubtful given the latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I don't see how anyone can say this is South or dead or not happening or state what going to happen with 3 days STILL to go .I am not hugging any model 3 days out , I mean we have seen this all winter with people living and dying with each model run. I will look at the model runs as they come out and take them for what they are worth but if I was betting money I would venture to say what the models showed yesterday or last night is NOTHING like what will actually happen 3 days from now when its game time. Im not saying the NAM is correct or wrong especially out of its wheelhouse time wise , but the models will have to digest a lot of info and try and figure out the dynamics as it gets closer,,,,,,fun to track and watch this unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 30 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ant your such a model hugger!! Just yesterday you were saying more likely a warm solution and “we are losing this one”... come on pick a side! Never said that I have always been on the suppressed bandwagon solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, snow1 said: Mets like cranky are giving up on this storm as well. Too early to give up since the models this year havent been that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 9z SREF should look good for our area since the ARW's and NMB's are amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 45 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I don't see how anyone can say this is South or dead or not happening or state what going to happen with 3 days STILL to go .I am not hugging any model 3 days out , I mean we have seen this all winter with people living and dying with each model run. I will look at the model runs as they come out and take them for what they are worth but if I was betting money I would venture to say what the models showed yesterday or last night is NOTHING like what will actually happen 3 days from now when its game time. Im not saying the NAM is correct or wrong especially out of its wheelhouse time wise , but the models will have to digest a lot of info and try and figure out the dynamics as it gets closer,,,,,,fun to track and watch this unfold It's really very simple. Weather forecasting is a matter not of completely objective black and white exactness - it is a matter of probabilities for certain solutions and those probabilities become a little more reliable as one comes within less and less time of the event. Climatology also has to be taken into consideration. Right now, people who are willing to face the facts and not wishcast, are able to see that the probabilities for a significant snow event in our area have significantly decreased and would seem to be unlikely. Is it still possible? Sure. Likely? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 With this complex set up, the models probably have enough time to trend back north...and then south again. If the models look rosy again tonight, folks shouldn't rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 How were the GFS and EURO ens last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 the storm if it comes is coming around the time of the 1958 storm that brought 6-12" in the city proper and more north and west...it started snowing lightly mid day on the 19th...by evening it changed to light rain...on the 20th the light rain changed back to light mix then light snow...temperature for this period was in the 35-36 range...during the day on the 20th it was mostly wet snow with some rain mixed in...slushy accumulations during the day...snow accumulated better after dark...temps were in the 33-35 range...the 21st started out with heavy wet snow from midnight on tapering off during the day...temps were in the 31-33 range...after the snow stopped it started up lightly again and finally ended the morning of the 22nd...no more accumulations with that...temps were 33-34 before it ended...1.63" of le and 11.8" of snow in Central Park...1.29" of le in LGA...10.5" of snow...1.92" le at Battery park...6.8" snow...2.20" le in Bensonhurst Brooklyn...8.2" of snow...2.15" le in Westerleigh Staten Island...11.5" of snow...2.32" of le in Newark NJ...14.8" of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Its amazing how 36 hours ago it looks like a potential large area wide hit with worries about temps to sheared and suppressed. Thus morning TWC basically agreed with the 2 piece suppressed look. Still time, but not much. Over all I think most of the area is at or above average, pretty good for a la Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Its amazing how 36 hours ago it looks like a potential large area wide hit with worries about temps to sheared and suppressed. Thus morning TWC basically agreed with the 2 piece suppressed look. Still time, but not much. Over all I think most of the area is at or above average, pretty good for a la Nina We still have 2 days for this to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: We still have 2 days for this to come north 2 key pieces to look for if you want this to come north are a more amplified western ridge and less confluence over se Canada/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: We still have 2 days for this to come north Agree, but the difference for me is usually TWC and NWS will keep warning, hinting at the storm. TWC totally backed out and NWS discussion was pretty much discussing what the models show now. That plus HM not tweeting any more about 1958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Wow nam looks great Heavy snow with below freezing temps for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Gorgeous 12z NAM run. Hoping that it can hold onto this once into its better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: Gorgeous 12z NAM run. Hoping that it can hold onto this once into its better range. 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Wow nam looks great Heavy snow with below freezing temps for the NYC area Honestly the NAM lead the way with this past storm. I think the NAM is much much improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: Honestly the NAM lead the way with this past storm. I think the NAM is much much improved I don't think that's true. The 12k and 3k especially were the last to show a western solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Aside from the RAP/HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Gorgeous 12z NAM run. Hoping that it can hold onto this once into its better range. Isn't it a concern that it trended further south again towards the other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The NAM is an inch per hour right from the start. Cobb Method had 7" in 6 hours on the previous run. Output for current run not out yet, but looks similar. Ratio was 10:1 with temps. in upper 20's on the last output. Now if the big boys can come back north................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Isn't it a concern that it trended further south again towards the other guidance? It's still outside its best range. But its currently the furthest north piece of guidance. Nobody would worry about snow sticking on even the pavement in NYC if this S+ and daytime 20's verified. Now we just hope it can hold onto this going forward. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Nam is a foot South of 78 and nothing north of 84. Jan 2016 type gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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