SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: The dew points verified lower again this morning vs model forecasts. So it will be interesting to see what the 12z guidance does once these lower numbers are fed into the models. A strong sign that the system will end up being more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 If wave one would have materialized to Its full potential how much QPF would have been available for New York City ?Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 how the heck can Mt Holly come in so hot at widespread 12-14 given what the euro/nam showed last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, North and West said: How’s Northern NJ looking? I could go for a lesser storm that doesn’t knock out my power thrice since March 2nd. . 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 SREF has 9 inches for NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, winterwarlock said: how the heck can Mt Holly come in so hot at widespread 12-14 given what the euro/nam showed last night? First of all... the EURO has a SE bias and has been too dry as of late in the short term... as for the NAM that run is tossed unless it shows similar.... stop model hugging look at the whole picture... GFS/UKMET/RGEM all in the 8-12+ range... the UKMET was a bomb. IMO the NAM corrects itself and EURO has been very subpar as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 SREF plumes look to of increased snowfall for most. Hopefully the start of a good 12z trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: SREF has 9 inches for NYC area Thats actually shockingly low by SREF standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Don’t be surprised if models tick a bit East tonight. I really wouldn’t worry unless they go back to showing a complete whiff, which I think is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Thats actually shockingly low by SREF standards Yeah especially with that biblical ARW2 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Going to require a blizzard warning IMO. The past few storms were like the boy who cried wolf for NYC. My $ is on a BW this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wave 1 looks sneakily likes it want to get up here later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3-6 inches for NYC is my call, I honestly do not understand uptons forecast. With that said, I did not understand uptons forecast last storm of 12-15 inches especially when they increased totals mid storm. We all know the results... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: Wave 1 looks sneakily likes it want to get up here later today If anything the opposite based on current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, richm20 said: My $ is on a BW this evening! Winds will be hard pressed to verify blizzard although we'v seen warnings before even when it was obviously not going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If anything the opposite based on current trends. I'm still concerned it may reach as far as SI/SRN Bklyn and Queens. The 06Z RGEM got it to there and its verifying well through 1330Z showing precip only into far SRN NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I'm still concerned it may reach as far as SI/SRN Bklyn and Queens. The 06Z RGEM got it to there and its verifying well through 1330Z showing precip only into far SRN NJ Yeah I guess that could happen. As I said last night, I think we'll be watching the radar for hours and hallucinating about how it's about to start snowing only for it ultimately get pushed South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Winds will be hard pressed to verify blizzard although we'v seen warnings before even when it was obviously not going to verify. Gusts of 30KT+ will easily verify at JFK and LGA - the question is the persistent +SN or BLSN for vis 1/4SM or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 3-6 inches for NYC is my call, I honestly do not understand uptons forecast. With that said, I did not understand uptons forecast last storm of 12-15 inches especially when they increased totals mid storm. We all know the results... 100% with you on this one. BUT, Upton will issue a BW and therefore NYC schools will close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I think it was irresponsible for Upton to pull the trigger on 12-16, it's like they've been run by weenies this season with so many aggressive forecasts. When there is so much doubt as there is with this storm, conservative is the best route to take. I think 4-8 would have been a good call then bump up if necessary. This storm has a lot of bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Winds already close to 30 at the Jersey beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12z NAM is already coming in much more amped early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, richm20 said: 100% with you on this one. BUT, Upton will issue a BW and therefore NYC schools will close. Depends on banding This has major potential for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Nam is coming in more amped than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Precip is much further NW on the 12z NAM early tomorrow morning vs 06. The trough is sharper and more amped up. All signs point towards a NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 For the weather historians, this is 60 years ago today, in a 2015 winter critique: https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2015/03/12/625-pm-the-amazing-blizzard-of-march-1958-and-some-similarities-to-this-winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 23 minutes ago, richm20 said: 100% with you on this one. BUT, Upton will issue a BW and therefore NYC schools will close. if the forecast is for 6-12 inches and it starts before morning you can 100% guarantee nyc schools will be closed tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Winds already close to 30 at the Jersey beaches. I bet . We have a high to the north this time around so the pressure gradient will tighten quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looking good for NY metro so far through Hr 29. Already more than .5 of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Way NW and juicer. Weenie run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.